Panthers vs. Dolphins: NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Panthers vs. Dolphins.
NFL Betting Primer: Panthers vs. Dolphins
Miami Dolphins (MIA -13.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Hate to just copy and paste my analysis from the Dolphins’ breakdown as double-digit favorites versus the Giants…but here we are. Two TD favorites might seem like a lot…but they have won by more than that in both their home games this season. Meanwhile, the Panthers defense has shown no ability to slow down top offenses like Seattle and Detroit on the road – allowing nearly 40 points per game. They even lost to the Falcons by two TDs on the road.
Simply put, their offense for the first time finally scored 20-plus points because of a garbage time TD. That’s ultimately the fear with the big spread is with the backdoor cover as the Panthers have all incentive in the world to juice Bryce Young‘s numbers to justify taking him with the first overall pick. Same with the total. This game screams like a 4th quarter sweat with the actual W-L outcome a done deal.
Miami is 3-2 toward the over this season, with unders coming against the Giants/Patriots anemic offenses. The Panthers are closer to that offense than the ones that have actually challenged the Dolphins…hence my hesitance to just ride the over after Carolina’s offense finally posted a decent stat line. However, Carolina has been BETTER than both the Patriots and Giants offenses overall.
Miami’s defense isn’t great, but the total STILL flew under last week despite a pick-six for the Giants.
As much as I’d like to chalk up last week’s offensive “resurgence†to Carolina playing at Ford Field – the Coors Field of the NFL, the only time we have seen the Panthers offense score points is facing top offenses on the road. That script is what we have set up here in Week 6, especially with how turnover-prone Young has been (third-highest turnover-worthy play rate). That gives Miami access to quick scores.
The turnovers are why I can’t back the Panthers covering – even a spread this large – against a pass rush that ranks third in pressure rate. But I think I can back the over knowing the Miami offense could bail me out if they do 80% of the scoring. The narrative against Young being a “bust†five games in also makes me believe this offense will look to take advantage of an exploitable defense with its fair share of problems.
For props, I love going back to Jaylen Waddle‘s receiving props. Because they are trying to jam him targets. Season-high 10 targets in Week 5. A ton of red zone usage (4 red -zone targets). Also saw his average depth of target dip dramatically, in a way I view as an extension of the run game that will be without De’Von Achane for the foreseeable future.
The Panthers’ defense ranks fourth in missed tackles and 6th in the lowest depth of target faced. I think this is a breakout game week for Waddle.
As for the Panthers RBs…fade Miles Sanders if he plays.
Miles Sanders – 43rd in rushing success rate among 44 qualifying RBs. Picked up a shoulder injury. Woof. Sanders. PFF’s 57th graded RB among 58 qualifiers.
His “backup†Chuba Hubbard – 6th best in rushing success rate, Carolina has the 4th-lowest PROE. Three-down skillset. PFF’s 7th-highest graded RB.
The other Panther WR I like is Jonathan Mingo.
Mingo made 5 receptions for 48 yards, showcasing his reliability as a target (7 targets, 20% Target share). He put Terrace Marshall Jr. back on the bench in Week 5.
D.J. Chark contributed 42 yards on 3 receptions, averaging 14 yards per catch, and scored a touchdown (6 targets). 3 red-zone targets.
Both Chark and Mingo have 30% or higher air yard shares this season, with Mingo boasting the higher Target share 18% vs. 12%). Mingo is also coming off his best game to date. The first play was a pass to the rookie.
Think I prefer chasing the rookie than the boom-or-bust Chark. 7-plus targets in Young’s last two games. Chark has totaled fewer than 3.5 targets per game in 3 games with Young.
My Picks:
- Over 48.5 (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Dolphins -13.5 (-110 BetMGM)
My Props:
- Jaylen Waddle over 59.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM)
- Jonathan Mingo over 30.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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