Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Wisconsin Badgers Preview Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Wisconsin opens their home schedule on Saturday afternoon and is set to display their ferocious defense against fellow Big 10 stalwart Penn State. The Badgers are a blitz-happy unit under coordinator Jim Leonhard and bring back their three most feared defenders for 2021. Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal are the corps in the linebacker group, and Falon Hicks dominates the opposing slot receivers. Sanborn could be the best LB in the nation, doing it all in coverage and against the run. Wisconsin will put their CFP hopes in the hands of their elite defense.

Penn State boasts an awe-inspiring one-two punch in their backfield. Noah Cain and transfer John Lovett should be the focal points of new coordinator Mike Yurcich’s offensive scheme. Cain plays the chain mover, while Lovett is the homerun threat. Sadly for Happy Valley goers, the offense starts and ends with the running backs. Sean Clifford’s career went the wrong way in 2020, but the challengers for his job aren’t much better. Additionally, it is difficult to identify a threat from the collection of WRs. All in all, if Penn State is going to challenge for the Big 10 in 2021, it will take a Heisman campaign from one of their RBs.

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Details

• Opening Line: Wisconsin -4.5
• Current Line: Wisconsin -5.5
• Over/Under: 49.5
• Location: Camp Randall Stadium. Madison, WI
• Start Time: Saturday, September 4, 2021. 12:00 pm EST
• Last Meeting: Penn State 22, Wisconsin 10

Overview

Penn State has dominated this series of late, claiming victory in four consecutive matchups with Wisconsin. The last time Wisconsin beat the Nittany Lions was ten years ago. However, the Badgers will point to injuries and Covid-19 for their 2020 disappointment. Quarterback Graham Mertz is healthy after fighting a balky shoulder last year. He has the pedigree of a top recruit and the tools to make all the throws. The Badgers defense will keep them in every game, and Mertz will have chances to showcase his talent by being on the field often.

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The Nittany Lions will try and counter Mertz and the Wisconsin offense, especially on third down, where Penn State prides itself on getting off the field. They will use blitz deception to keep Paul Chryst guessing in the passing downs.

Trends

• Wisconsin is 1-4 in their last 5 games ATS overall
• Totals have gone UNDER in 4 of the previous 5 Wisconsin games overall
• Penn State is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games vs. Wisconsin
• Penn State leads the all-time series 10-9 against Wisconsin

Bottom Line

 Penn State wants to run it, while Wisconsin intends to impose its defensive will. The under is very much in play here, especially when you account for the poor QB play on one side and arm concerns for the signal-caller on the other. At 49.5, it is my favorite play of the week. Now for the winner, I believe Wisconsin will score enough to win, but this is closer to a field goal than a touchdown difference. Penn State has risen to the challenge of Wisconsin in recent history, so I think this stays tight the whole way, although the Badgers will finally break the decade-long drought against PSU.

Prediction: Penn State 20, Wisconsin 24 (Penn State +5.5 | 1.0 units, UNDER 49.5 | 1.5 units)

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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.