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Perfect NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks: Medium Pools (2024 March Madness)

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Call me fortunate because we finally have a bracket! It’s that time of the year again and at last, we can fill out brackets and let our hopes soar, only to see them dashed almost immediately.

BettingPros will provide ample coverage throughout the week, including creating the perfect bracket for pools of all sizes — small, medium, and large. Whether you’re competing in a public contest with millions at stake, among family and friends, or within your office, I’ve got you covered on filling out your bracket, regardless of the tournament’s scale.

This article will offer tips tailored towards medium tournament pools — those encompassing your entire company, a large group of high school or college friends, or even a general public pool. These pools typically range from 50 to 500 participants. The strategy for navigating a medium pool involves taking slightly more calculated risks while still maintaining a degree of restraint. Despite the larger size of these pools, there are numerous avenues to distinguish your bracket from the others. And make sure to check out our 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Optimizer to take down your pools!

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Here are some tips:

Choose the Right Champion: Naturally, selecting the correct champion is crucial. As mentioned in the small pool article, over the last 26 seasons, 24 champions have commenced the tournament with a top-20 offense and a top-40 defense on Selection Sunday, as per KenPom. This year, those teams are:

  • UConn (1, 11)
  • Houston (17, 2)
  • Purdue (4, 21)
  • Auburn (10, 4)
  • Arizona (8, 12)
  • Duke (7, 26)
  • Creighton (12, 24)

The champion will probably emerge from this list. UConn stands as a heavy favorite, and rightfully so, but they face one of the toughest regions. Their matchup against Auburn could very well be a preview of the eventual champion.

Additionally, over the past six years, at least one of the two teams ranked one and two in efficiency from February 1st to Selection Sunday has either reached the championship game or won it all. Those teams are UConn and Houston. While it’s not guaranteed that either or both teams will reach the championship, it is expected based on recent trends that one of them will.

  1. Take Calculated Risks, Especially Early in the Tournament: In 14 of the last 15 tournaments, at least one top-four seed has fallen in the first round. Last year saw Purdue, Arizona, and Virginia among those early exits. If you foresee a team stumbling early, perhaps you don’t need to predict a significant upset in the first round, but rather anticipate their departure before the second weekend to take a more conservative risk. Furthermore, a double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in 15 consecutive tournaments and 36 of the last 38 tournaments. Identify a double-digit seed you favor or an opponent you believe is vulnerable and align your bracket with this trend. Some potential choices include New Mexico, NC State, and McNeese.
  2. Keep Your Final Four Selections Simple: Ultimately, points in your bracket largely hinge on the outcomes at the end. If you can correctly predict three out of the four Final Four teams, that should position you well to secure a victory or at least place highly in your pool. The calculated risks taken earlier in the bracket will set your entry apart from the rest and increase your chances of success.

If you’re inexperienced, I have a bracket template that you can simply copy and paste into your pool. While it tends to lean towards safer picks, it provides a solid foundation for winning your bracket pool.

Check out all of our 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

More 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Pool Strategy & Picks

Below we provide strategy, advice, and picks to create the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket. And be sure to use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket and take down your contest!

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