Predicted Line Movement for Super Bowl LV (2021)
A full season of NFL football is set to culminate in Tampa, Florida, in just two weeks with Super Bowl LV. The Kansas City Chiefs will attempt to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the New England Patriots accomplished the feat in 2004 and 2005. To do so, they'll have to get past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the man who quarterbacked those two Patriots teams, Tom Brady. The Bucs already made a bit of history in their own right by becoming the first team to ever play in a Super Bowl on their home field.
The Super Bowl betting market officially opened before the AFC Championship Game had even gone final on Sunday night, with the opening lines hitting the board at various Las Vegas sportsbooks. How far will the lines deviate from the opening numbers? Which direction will receive the majority of sharp backing? How will the never before seen Super Bowl "home field advantage" affect the betting market? Here are some Super Bowl LV line movement predictions.
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Super Bowl LV Game Info
Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5)
Date: Sunday, Feb. 7, 2021
Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL
Coverage: CBS
Last Meeting: November 29, 2020 - The Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers 27-24 in Tampa.
Super Bowl LV Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Opening Lines: Chiefs -3.5; O/U 57.5
Moneyline: KC: (-160) | TB: (+135)
Spread: KC: -3 (-115) | TB: +3 (-105)
Total: 56.5 (Over: -110) | Under: (-110)
Super Bowl LV Betting Market Analysis
When it comes to comparing current odds against the true opening number, there is no better sportsbook to monitor than the Westgate Superbook. Even for those bettors outside of Las Vegas or who can’t access the Westgate, it's worth noting the opening lines there, as it's often the first book with a number available for the majority of sporting events.
We have already seen the lines shift in the mere hours between the time of writing and when the Superbook opened them during the second half of the AFC Championship Game on Sunday night. The Kansas City Chiefs are down to an even field goal favorite after originally laying 3.5. The total has seen a predictable surge of sharp money to the under, dropping a full point from the opening 57.5.
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Super Bowl LV Point Spread Movement Predictions
Where the point spread moves from here will be very important for bettors to watch. With three being the key number of all key numbers for NFL betting, deviations in the Super Bowl point spread around this number will be all the more significant.
One of the interesting elements of Conference Championship weekend was that both underdogs (Tampa Bay, Buffalo) were the public sides. For as good as the Chiefs are, I could see a similar scenario developing in the next two weeks ahead of Super Bowl LV. Tom Brady has only been an underdog in the Super Bowl once before, and after taking out the top two seeds in the NFC Playoffs, it wouldn't be a big surprise to see Brady and the Buccaneers attract the majority of public bets for the Super Bowl.
Bettors need to remember that tickets don't lead to line movement — sharp money does. After all, line movement is simply the sportsbook adjusting its numbers to be on the same side as their most respected bettors. So while I predict the public to come out in support of Tom Brady as an underdog, the ultimate question is whether the pros will do the same.
It's much harder for me to envision this happening. Gobbling up the hook on an opening 3.5 when the market is at its most volatile point is one thing. A full-force backing of the Buccaneers to drive the spread through the ultra-key number of three is another. As the public ticket count on Tampa Bay swells, look for books to hold firm at an even three. If the spread creeps back up to 3.5 or higher, it'll be no secret that the Chiefs are the sharp side.
Super Bowl LV Total Movement Predictions
If there was ever an indication that we’re in an offense-first age of NFL football, it's the opening over/under for Super Bowl LV. The line of 57.5 matched the highest closing total ever in Super Bowl history, tying Super Bowl LI between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons.
Sharps were ready and waiting to bite on the high total, a move that isn’t uncommon for marquee events (see early College Football Playoff National Championship line movement from earlier this month). While it isn't necessarily a sure thing that the public majority will be on the Buccaneers, as I predicted above, I can say with the utmost confidence that the public will be on the over when it comes to the total. Public bettors bet for what they want to see, and most people want to see scoring. This equates to betting the total over and betting "Yes/Over" on almost all Super Bowl props.
It takes a special kind of stomach to take the under in any Chiefs game. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and the entirety of Andy Reid's offense reminded the world of just how dominant and unstoppable they are in their rout of the Bills. The AFC Championship ultimately went over the total, but it took late garbage time points from Buffalo to do so. Similarly, the Chiefs’ regular-season win over the Buccaneers saw 51 total points scored, and 14 of them came in the fourth as Tampa Bay tried to climb out of an insurmountable deficit.
So, where will the Super Bowl LV total move from here? In the immediate future, I predict more sharp play on the under. Buyback will come at some point, but we aren't there yet. Combined with the flood of public money to the over, the total will rise eventually, but I'll go out on a limb and say it closes lower than where it opened at 57.5.
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.