Predicted Line Movement for Super Bowl LVI (2022)

After another thrilling weekend off conference championship football, the Super Bowl LVI matchup is set with the Los Angeles Rams facing the Cincinnati Bengals. Based on Los Angeles’ off-season and in-season acquisitions, their Super Bowl appearance is not a surprise given how much of an “all in” mentality they took with this season. By comparison, Cincinnati’s appearance is a total shock considering their preseason odds to make it this far. The Bengals had 200-1 odds, and 0.49% of the bets wagered on them to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season. As a result, they joined the 1999 Rams as the only other team to go from the bottom five in terms of Super Bowl odds in the preseason to appear in the big game.

On another historical note, no team in the first 54 years of the Super Bowl had ever played for a championship in their home stadium. But after Tampa Bay won on their home field last year, the Rams will try to duplicate that and become the second consecutive team to win the championship at home.

How do these tidbits factor into bettors’ minds, and how will they affect the line movement leading to Super Bowl Sunday?

Here is a look at the early Super Bowl LVI line and predicted movement.

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Super Bowl LVI Game Info

Los Angeles Rams (15-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (13-7)
Date: Sunday, Feb. 13, 2022
Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
Venue: SoFi Stadium - Inglewood, CA
Coverage: NBC
Last Meeting: October 27, 2019 - The Rams defeated the Bengals 24-10 in London.

Super Bowl LV Betting Odds

(odds courtesy of FanDuel)

Opening Lines: Rams -4; O/U 49.5
Moneyline: LAR: (-198) | CIN: (+166)
Spread: LAR: -4 (-108) | CIN: +4 (-112)
Total: 49.5 (Over: -110) | Under: (-110)

Super Bowl LV Betting Market Analysis

Like any other game, shopping for the best number is of the utmost importance and occasionally means the difference between winning and losing a bet depending on what number bettors lock in at. While FanDuel is at Rams -4, DraftKings is currently as high as -4.5.

 

By comparison, if you plan on backing the Rams, BetMGM’s -3.5 point spread looks a lot more appealing. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, six postseason games this season have been tied in the fourth quarter. That is as many such games as in the last three postseasons combined. Thus, in another game that projects to be tight in the fourth quarter once again, a half-point or a full point difference in a point spread can be very valuable.

Super Bowl LV Point Spread Movement Predictions

Following the point spread movement at various sportsbooks thus far within the first 12 hours, it is apparent this line will not look too different by kickoff. At DraftKings, the Rams opened at -4.5 and were briefly bet down to -4. However, there was buyback on the favorites at that number and was pushed back to -4.5 overnight.

Playing the Super Bowl in their home building last year, the Buccaneers easily cashed as +135 moneyline underdogs, beating the Chiefs outright 31-9. Bettors will likely be swayed by that result with the Rams playing in their home stadium this year.

Los Angeles made a lot of marquee transactions in building their team to a championship contender this year, starting with trading for quarterback Matthew Stafford in the offseason. In addition, they added a former Super Bowl MVP on defense in Von Miller and one of the game’s best wide receivers in Odell Beckham Jr., while surprisingly getting running back Cam Akers back and healthy from an Achilles injury. Conversely, Cincinnati is just two full seasons removed from winning two games. The Bengals have earned their share of believers, with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase almost singlehandedly elevating the franchise to the next level. But the Rams are the flashier team with more household names, and the fact that they are playing in their home stadium will resonate with the public.

Based on the initial line movement at DraftKings going in Cincinnati’s favor, the Bengals are sure to have their share of backers. But Los Angeles will undoubtedly have more betting support from a handle perspective. Look for sharps to continue to weigh in on Cincinnati anytime a +4.5 pops up, but it is likelier the game kicks off at that number than it is at +3.5.

Super Bowl LV Total Movement Predictions

While the point spread is vastly different depending on which sportsbook one shops at, the over/under has seemingly been much more unanimous. Some sportsbooks like DraftKings at one point reached 50, but 49.5 is the more prevalent number.

NFL bettors are some of the most reactionary bunch, and often the previous week’s results weigh heavily in their decisions for the current week. So if bettors react to last week’s results, this total has room to come down before kickoff.

Cincinnati did the unthinkable last week and held a Kansas City offense who had scored 40+ points in back-to-back games to open the playoffs to just three combined points in the second half and overtime last week. On top of that, there are plenty of trends to support the under. The under has cashed in Cincinnati’s last four games overall and their last seven playoff games. Meanwhile, the under is 27-10-1 in Los Angeles’ last 38 games as favorites.

Given Bengals head coach Zac Taylor’s familiarity with Rams head coach Sean McVay’s system, there may also be value on the under from a schematic standpoint. Taylor was the quarterbacks coach of the Rams team that beat the Saints in the 2018 NFC Championship game but lost to the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

As with the point spread, the over is likely to be backed widely if this number gets too low. However, given the nerves at stake for players like Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow appearing in their first Super Bowl, we may see a lower scoring game than a shootout. Because of that, the chances of this game kicking off with a total of 49 are greater than that of a game in the 50s.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.