The English Premier League (EPL) is back after a thrilling mid-week slate on the continental stage. Every match is meaningful down the stretch in the EPL, as teams continue to jockey for a coveted top-four spot.
I'll break down three of the matches from a sports betting perspective, letting you know where I'm laying my money on the pitch this weekend.
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Premier League Matchday 32 Preview & Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chelsea (-370) vs. Ipswich Town (+850), DRAW (+550) | O/U 3.5 (+110/-140)
Let's pick it up on Sunday morning, where we have an interesting contest between Chelsea and Ipswich Town. The Tractor Boys enter the weekend below the relegation line in 18th place at 4-8-19 (20 points), while the hosting Blues are in sixth at 15-8-8 (53 points). Kickoff is set for 9:00 a.m. ET from Stamford Bridge in London.
I was initially looking to play the "Chelsea to Win to Nil" prop, but it turns out that bet pays only +100, compared to the “Blues to Record a Clean Sheet” at +105. This means we get back to the window to cash our ticket even if it finishes 0-0.
The visitors have been one of the worst offensive teams in the Premier League this season. They are 18th in both scoring (31 goals) and expected goals (xG) - 29.1. Meanwhile, Chelsea's defense has improved greatly in recent weeks. The Blues are coming off of a 3-0 mid-week win over Legia Warsaw in the UEFA Conference League. They've allowed only one goal in their last five matches in all competitions. I think Enzo Maresca's group puts the clamps on defensively, logging another clean sheet.
Bet: Chelsea to Keep a Clean Sheet (+105)
Newcastle United (-155) vs. Manchester United (+400), DRAW (+330) | O/U 2.5 (-155/+125)
Sunday's five-match schedule concludes with a marquee tilt between Newcastle United and Manchester United. The visiting Red Devils secured a draw against Manchester City last time out. They're now in 13th place at 10-8-13 (38 points). The Magpies are gunning for a top-four spot - they're currently in seventh at 16-5-9 (53 points). This match gets underway at 11:30 a.m. ET from St. James' Park in Newcastle.
While United is coming off that solid 0-0 draw against Manchester City in the Manchester Derby, I think it'll be back to their losing ways when they hit the road this weekend. They've been pretty underwhelming on the road, going just 4-5-6. That's a losing rate of 40%.
I like Newcastle United, who has won its last four Premier League games outright, to take care of business in front of their home crowd. The Magpies have won eight of their 14 home matches this season (57.1%). Ultimately, I don't think the visitors have enough offensive firepower to keep pace in this match. They're just 15th in scoring (37 goals) and 13th in xG (41.4), while Newcastle is sixth (52) and fifth (50.7) in those respective categories. I'll lay the one goal with Eddie Howe and his troops at St. James' Park.
Bet: Newcastle United -1 (+100)
Bournemouth (+110) vs. Fulham (+240), DRAW (+255) | O/U 2.5 (-145/+110)
The matchday concludes with a Monday afternoon tilt between Bournemouth and Fulham. This mid-table clash sees the hosts in 10th place at 12-9-10 (45 points), while the visiting Cottagers are in eighth at 13-9-9 (48 points). Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET from Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth.
Both of these offenses have been serviceable this campaign, so I'm going to lay the juice and lock in the over 2.5 goals on Monday. For the Cherries, they're seventh in goals (51) and third in xG (56.9), while the Cottagers are 11th (47) and 12th (41.5). On the defensive side, each team is allowing at least 1.3 goals per match this year.
In terms of recent form, Bournemouth has cleared 2.5 combined goals in their last six matches in the Premier League. I like this sneakily high-powered Cherries offense to carry the final score over the number. Let's take the over.
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals (-145)
