Premier League Matchday 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
We're nearly a third of the way through the Premier League season, and Liverpool sits atop the table with 25 points. All 20 teams are set to take the pitch for matchday 11 this weekend, and I've narrowed in on three of the games from a betting angle. Here are my three favourite bets in the English Premier League this weekend.
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Premier League Matchday 11 Preview & Best Bets (2024)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Liverpool (-235) vs. Aston Villa (+550), DRAW (+425) | 3.5 (+110/-135)
The marquee matchup on Saturday pits first-place Liverpool against Aston Villa at Anfield. The Villans haven't looked sharp recently, dropping them to sixth place in the table at 5-3-2 (18 points). As I mentioned in the intro, the Reds sit atop that table at 8-1-1 with 25 points. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday at 3:00 p.m. ET from Anfield, Liverpool.
This has been an unusual stretch of results for Unai Emery and his men, as they're just 0-1-3 in their last four matches across all competitions. This includes losing their last three contests outright and getting out-scored 7-2 over the span. This isn't necessarily the greatest time to turn things around offensively, as Aston Villa heads to the hostile Anfield. The Red boast the league's best defense, ranking first in both goals allowed (six) and xGA (8.0).
Conversely, Arne Slot's squad continues to light up the scoreboard. They dismantled Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 in their midweek Champions League match, and they've now scored 2+ goals in five of their last six matches across all leagues. When looking directly at the Premier League, Liverpool is 8-1-1, and they've logged four multi-goal victories. With the current form of each club, I think it's worth a shot backing the Reds -1.5 goals in this contest.
Bet: Liverpool -1.5 (+100)
Nottingham Forest (+170) vs. Newcastle United (+170), DRAW (+220) | 2.5 (-110/-115)
The Tricky Trees out of Nottingham have been a surprise story this year, as they enter the weekend sitting in third place in the PL table at 5-4-1 (19 points). They'll try to keep their three-match winning streak alive on Sunday against visiting Newcastle, who's in 11th place at 4-3-3 (15 points). Kickoff is set for 9:00 a.m. ET from The City Ground in Nottingham.
I mentioned that Liverpool boasts the PL's best defense above. You barely have to scroll down the list to find Nuno EspÃrito Santo's Nottingham Forest club, which ranks second in both goals conceded (seven) and xGA (9.5). For perspective, they're the only two clubs that have allowed fewer than 10 goals this campaign.
On that note, only one club has allowed exactly 10 goals through 10 matches, and that's Newcastle. The team that was very much a run-and-gun style group a year ago has settled into playing low-scoring games this year. The Magpies have netted 10 goals (16th) while allowing only 10 tallies (fourth), which equates to an average of just 2.0 combined goals per game. Nottingham will have their rabid fanbase at their backs, so I expect their defense to hold up well at home - just like usual. I'm taking the under.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals (-115)
Chelsea (+170) vs. Arsenal (+155), DRAW (+240) | 2.5 (-140/+110)
The headlining match on Sunday features a top-five tilt between Chelsea and Arsenal. The Blues are in fourth place entering the weekend at 5-3-2 (18 points). The Gunners own an identical record but reside in fifth due to lagging behind in goal differential (+6 vs. Chelsea's +8). This high-leverage match gets underway at 11:30 a.m. ET from Stamford Bridge in London.
Let's cut right to the chase. Chelsea heads into this match having not lost a home game since they opened the Premier League season with a 2-0 home defeat to Manchester City. Since the loss, the Blues have rattled off an eight-game home unbeaten streak, going 6-2-0 over the timeframe. They're coming off of an 8-0 massacre of Armenia's FC Noah in their midweek UEFA Conference League, and they've out-scored their competition 24-6 in the last six home matches.
Obviously, this will be a step up in competition, but Arsenal certainly hasn't been in its best form lately. The Gunners are just 2-1-3 in their last six matches across all competitions. They've conceded at least one goal in each of their last four PL matches, so this once-impenetrable defense is looking a touch concerning at the moment. I think Chelsea can pull out a home win against Arsenal, but I'll play is conservative and wager on the "draw no bet" prop. For those unfamiliar, we'll push our bet if the game ends in a draw, but we win if Chelsea wins.
Bet: Chelsea To Win, Draw No Bet (-105)