Premier League Matchday 26 Odds, Picks & Prediction (2024)
Matchday 26 got underway on Wednesday when Liverpool cruised to a 4-1 victory over visiting Luton Town. The Chelsea/Tottenham match scheduled for Friday was postponed, leaving us with eight ties this weekend in the Premier League.
Below, I’ve narrowed in on three of those games from a betting angle. Here are my three favorite bets in England this weekend.
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Premier League Matchday 26 Odds, Picks & Prediction
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Aston Villa (-185) vs. Nottingham Forest (+475), DRAW (+360) | O/U 3.5 (+140/-175)
The Villans bounced back last time out, taking down Fulham in a 2-1 road affair. That moved them back into fourth place in the table, where they sit with 49 points (15-4-6). They’ll host Nottingham Forest, who enter the weekend at 16th with 24 points (6-6-13). Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday at 10:00 a.m. ET from Villa Park in Birmingham, England.
Villa Park has been a fortress this season for Unai Emery’s club. They’ve posted a 9-1-2 record at home this campaign, the fourth-best mark in the PL. Aston Villa owns a +18 goal differential at home, where they’ve out-scored the opposition 31-13. Look for them to build on their recent victory against Fulham. I think they will cruise to a win in front of their home fans.
On the flip side, Forest hasn’t been a worthy opponent on the road this season. They’re just 2-3-7, owning a -11 goal differential (13:24). Furthermore, the Trees have conceded the fifth-most goals this term (44). That’s not a great recipe for traveling to Birmingham, where Aston Villa’s offense has really come to life (2.6 GPG at home). I expect a sharp performance from the Villans on Saturday morning, and I think they win this contest with ease.
Bet: Aston Villa -1.0 (-120)
Crystal Palace (+100) vs. Burnley (+295), DRAW (+240) | O/U 2.5 (+115/-140)
It’s far from the marquee match on Saturday morning, but there’s still an opportunity to cash a ticket in this bottom-of-the-table clash between Crystal Palace and Burnley. The Eagles are 15th in the table at 6-7-12 (25 points), while the Clarets come in at 19th, owning a record of 3-4-18 (13 points). This contest is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET from Selhurst Park in London, England.
It’s not often that you get a chance to fade Burnley at +100 odds. Even though Crystal Palace is far from elite, this feels like a great value spot to back them to collect three points. They already have a head-to-head victory against Burnley, beating them in a 2-0 road contest back on Nov. 4.
Ultimately, this is simply a fade of the Clarets. They’re currently priced at -650 to be relegated, which is the second-shortest price behind only Sheffield United (-1400). Statistically, they’re 19th in both goals scored (25) and goals allowed (55), once again, only sitting above the Blades. Burnley has been in rough form, going 0-2-4 over their last six matches. They’ve posted a goal differential of -12 (7:19) during the six-match sample size. I think the Eagles are more than capable of taking care of business here.
Bet: Crystal Palace Moneyline (+100)
West Ham (+145) vs. Brentford (+175), DRAW (+255) | O/U 2.5 (-135/+105)
The matchday wraps up on Monday with a contest between West Ham and Brentford. The Irons enter this contest at 10-6-9 (36 points), which is good enough for ninth in the table. The Bees are 14th at 7-4-14 (25 points). Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET from London Stadium in London, England.
I’m going with the upset on Monday afternoon; give me the Bees! Neither team is in great form, so I think I’ll take a shot on the underdog. Looking at Brentford’s schedule, they’ve gone through a gauntlet over their recent 1-0-4 run, playing Manchester City twice, along with taking on Liverpool and Tottenham. I think many teams would post a similar record against those top-tier squads.
So, this feels like a great buy-low spot on Brentford. They recently welcomed Ivan Toney back to the roster, and he has made his presence known, scoring four times in six matches. This will be a favorable matchup against a West Ham club that is 0-0-3 in their last three matches, getting out-scored 11-0. They’ve conceded the fifth-most goals this campaign (44), so look for Brentford to take advantage of this floundering defense.
Bet: Brentford Moneyline (+175)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: