Premier League Matchday 3 Odds, Picks & Prediction (2024)
We're heading into an absolutely loaded weekend of sports, and if you're looking to get some skin in the game, then you've come to the right place. Below I'll dive into my top three English Premier League bets for matchday three. Here are our top picks and predictions for Premier League Matchday 3.
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Premier League Matchday 3 Picks & Best Bets (2024)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Leicester (+350) vs. Aston Villa (-135), DRAW (+300) | 2.5 (-150/+120)
One of the seven Saturday matchups come in Leicester as the recently-promoted club hosts Aston Villa. The Foxes are out to a 0-1-1 (1 point) start this campaign, while the Villans enter the weekend at 1-0-1 (3 points). Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET from King Power Stadium in Leicester.
Neither of these defenses have looked sound through the first two matchdays, each conceding three total goals. In terms of xGA, Aston Villa has a mark off 3.2, while Leicster sits at 2.9. Since we could be looking at a high-scoring game, so I'll take my chances with the more capable offense - give me Aston Villa on the moneyline.
Unai Emery's men are coming off a fantastic season where they finished fourth at 20-8-10. They found the back of the net 76 times while posting an xG mark of 63.3. Those numbers are sixth- and seventh-best in their respective categories. Meanwhile, Leicester's xG number through two matches is just 1.6, which is the third-worst in the Premier League. The Villans bring in a well-oiled offense led by Ollie Watkins (19 goals in 2023-2024), and I expect them to outpace the Foxes.
Bet: Aston Villa Moneyline (-135)
Nottingham Forest (+105) vs. Wolves (+255), DRAW (+260) | 2.5 (-120/-105)
Gary O'Neil's Wanderers are coming off a 6-2 shellacking at the hands of Chelsea last weekend, pushing them to 0-0-2 out of the gate. They'll try to secure a result on the road against Nottingham Forest on Saturday, who's 1-1-0 (3 points) in 2024. Kickoff is set for Saturday at 10:00 a.m. ET from The City Ground in Nottingham.
These two sides have produced a draw in each of their last four matches (3 Premier League, 1 Carabao Cup). Considering Wolverhampton's current form and their -8 goal differential through two matches, I'm certainly not expecting them to pull off a road win in this spot. However, O'Neil should have his men motivated to at least try to earn a point.
On the flip side, Forest's home form is what's kept them in the top flight over the last two years. 20 of their 32 points in 2023-2024 came at home, while it was 30 of 38 the year before. I'm expecting them to at least secure a point in this match. Initially I was looking at them to win this match, but since they haven't been able to pull away from Wolves in the past, I'm just not confident enough to pull the trigger on them to win outright. There's a chance this match turns into a low-scoring snoozefest, which would be great for us! Let's take a shot with the draw at +260.
Bet: Draw (+260)
Manchester United (+275) vs. Liverpool (-115), DRAW (+310) | 3.5 (+105/-135)
The weekend concludes in Manchester on Sunday as United gears up to host Liverpool in a marquee clash. The Reds are a flawless 2-0-0 (6 points) under new manager Arne Slot. The Red Devils are 1-0-1 (3 points) after suffering a 2-1 road loss to Brighton & Hove Albion last weekend. Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. ET from Old Trafford in Manchester.
While Liverpool has been the better overall club the last couple of seasons, it certainly hasn't come at United's expense. The Red Devils went 1-2-0 against the Reds across all competitions last season, which includes a 4-3 United win in the FA Cup. At even money, I think it's worth a shot to play United +0.5 goals in this spot. They posted a solid 10-3-6 record at Old Trafford last year, meaning they were 13-6 (68.4%) against this line of +0.5.
This will be Liverpool's toughest test this season, as they've breezed past Ipswich Town (2-0) and Brentford (2-0) to start the campaign. Both of those teams rank 15th or worse in xG this season, while Manchester United has been the third-best club at 3.9 xG. I believe that Erik ten Hag's bunch have enough firepower to keep pace at home in this match, and I think they can at least pull out a draw.
Bet: Manchester United +0.5 (-110)