Premier League Matchday 33 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
The stakes in the Premier League couldn't be higher, as Arsenal (71 points), Liverpool (71 points) and Manchester City (70 points) are all gunning for the title.
I'll examine two of those clubs' upcoming matches, along with a third tie between Brentford and Sheffield United, from a betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money on the pitch this weekend.
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Premier League Matchday 33 Preview & Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Brentford (-240) vs. Sheffield United (+600), DRAW (+425) | O/U 3.5 (+130/-165)
It has been an ugly season for both of these organizations. Brentford is 15th in the table with 29 points, while Sheffield is currently in the cellar of the top flight (16 points). Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday morning at 10:00 a.m. ET from Gtech Community Stadium in Brentford., England
If you had to pick a strength of Brentford's game, you'd point to the offense. They come into this weekend's action at 13th in scoring, where they've racked up 45 goals over 32 matches (1.4 GPG). Thomas Frank's men should be fired up for this contest, as they're squaring off against a historically bad Sheffield defense. The Blades have conceded 82 goals over 31 matches (2.6 GA/G) this year.
Over their current 0-3-4 run, Sheffield is surrendering an average of 3.1 goals per contest. Brentford doesn't have much of a cushion between them and the relegation line, and with this being an easy opponent to collect points against, I think they go on an all-out offensive attack. They have the scorers to do so, with Yoane Wissa (eight goals) and Bryan Mbeumo (eight goals) up front. Let's lay the 1.5 goals with the Bees.
Bet: Brentford -1.5 (+105)
Manchester City (-1000) vs. Luton Town (+2000), DRAW (+1100) | O/U 3.5 (-145/+115)
City is looking to secure the four-peat this season, and they'll need to take care of business on Saturday to stay in the race. They're a massive favorite, hosting 18th-place Luton Town (25 points). This contest is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET from Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England.
You could make the argument that City won't be bringing their best effort since they have a colossal Champions League matchup with Real Madrid on the horizon. However, this Premier League race may very well come down to a tiebreaker (goal differential) to decide the champion. Pep Guardiola's squad (+40) is trailing both Arsenal (+51) and Liverpool (+42) in GD, so I think they'll take this opportunity to beat up on a lowly Luton Town team. I'll lay the 2.5 goals here in hopes of a 3-0 beatdown.
Statistically, Manchester City is obviously one of the most talented offenses in the league and probably the world. They're third in scoring with 71 goals, which equates to 2.3 goals per match. City is 2-1-0 in their last three matches across all competition, and they're putting up 3.7 goals per game over the three-match sample size. This is a favorable matchup against a Luton defense that's 18th overall (65 goals conceded). I'm expecting an early onslaught from City before they pull some of their stars to rest up for this midweek UCL match.
Bet: Manchester City -2.5 (-125)
Arsenal (-340) vs. Aston Villa (+800), DRAW (+500) | O/U 3.5 (+120/-150)
Speaking of crucial Champions League matches, Arsenal has its hands full with Bayern Munich (2-2) as the aggregate shifts back to Germany. However, Mikel Arteta must focus on this weekend's match against Aston Villa (fifth with 60 points) so they avoid a letdown in front of their home fans. This match is Sunday's nightcap in the Premier League, which is scheduled for 11:30 a.m. ET from Emirates Stadium in London.
Arsenal's defense has been spectacular this season (first with 24 GA), but I think this game presents an opportunity to play the over with a plus-money payout. The Gunners also bring in the league's best offense, where they've racked up 75 goals over 31 matches (2.4 GPG). They have plenty of firepower to score a couple of goals, especially against Aston Villa's seventh-ranked defense (49 goals conceded).
If you add up every team's goals-for and goals-conceded, only Newcastle (117) has seen more goals in their games than Aston Villa (115). Unai Emery's club prefers the run-and-gun style of play this season. They have a ton of offensive talent up front, led by star goalscorer Ollie Watkins (18 goals). His 18 tallies are only second in the PL, where he's looking up at City's Erling Haaland (19 goals). I think Aston Villa's going to give Arsenal a run for their money this weekend, and they'll need to rely on their offense to hang around. Let's play the over in London on Sunday.
Bet: Over 3.5 (+120)
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