Premier League Matchday 7 Odds, Picks & Prediction (2024)
We're onto matchday seven in the Premier League, and all 20 teams are set to go on international break following this weekend's slate of games. Here are the three matches that I've bet on for this weekend's action in England.
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Premier League Matchday 7 Preview & Best Bets (2024)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Everton (+215) vs. Newcastle (+120), DRAW (+260) | O/U 2.5 (-150/+120)
Saturday's seven-match slate wraps up with an interesting matchup between Everton and Newcastle United. The Toffees have endured a tough start to the campaign, sitting 16th in the table at 1-1-4 (4 points). Things won't get easier when they host a Magpies crew that's 3-2-1 (11 points), which is good enough for seventh place. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET from Goodison Park in Liverpool.
I'm bumping this total up to 2.75 and coming back on the Under. When looking at Newcastle, they've been playing a lot of low-scoring, competitive matches recently. Since the season kicked off in mid-August, Eddie Howe's men have seen five of their eight matches feature two or fewer total goals (across all competitions). That includes their last two matches, where they notched a 1-1 home draw against City in the PL and a 1-0 home victory over AFC Wimbledon in the Carabao Cup.
Goals have been tough to come by for both clubs during this Premier League campaign, with Newcastle scoring just eight times in six matches (1.3 GPG) and Everton scoring seven times (1.2 GPG). In terms of xG, both teams are 10th or worse. The Toffees are just 17th overall in xG at 6.1. Everton held Newcastle to just one goal in two head-to-head matches last year, and their most recent game ended in a 1-1 draw. We could be in for a similar outcome this time, so I'll lock in the Under 2.75 goals.
Bet: Under 2.75 Total Goals (-110)
Chelsea (-210) vs. Nottingham Forest (+500), DRAW (+380) | O/U 3.5 (+135/-175)
Chelsea's off to a spectacular start in 2024-2025, going 4-1-1 (13 points) and sitting fourth in the table. They'll host a scrappy Nottingham Forest club this weekend. The Trees are 2-3-1 (9 points) and in 10th place. This is Sunday's opening match, which kicks off at 9:00 a.m. ET from Stamford Bridge in London.
I think this could be one of those matches where we look back and wonder why Chelsea was priced so low against Forest at home. Forest has been a feisty bunch this season, but I think reality is starting to settle in, and we'll see the Trees slide down the rankings soon. They're already winless in their last two matches, drawing against Brighton (2-2) and losing at home to Fulham (1-0), more recently.
Meanwhile, Chelsea is healthy and on the warpath. They've won their last five matches across all competitions, out-scoring the opposition 17-4! Cole Palmer looks like a bonafide superstar, logging six goals and four assists through six matches. With the home crowd behind the Blues, I think they at least pull out a win on Sunday morning. I'll play it conservatively here and lay a single goal since Nottingham's defense has been solid this season. But I won't be surprised to see a 2-0 or 3-0 victory for Enzo Maresca and his side. They've been a top-tier offense, leading the league in goals (15), while sitting fourth in xG (12.1). Give me Chelsea -1.0.
Bet: Chelsea -1.0 (-140)
Brighton (+190) vs. Tottenham (+120), DRAW (+300) | O/U 3.5 (-105/-120)
The matchday wraps up on Sunday morning with a thriller between Brighton & Hove Albion and Tottenham Hotspur. The hosts are winless in their last four matches, which has pushed them to ninth in the table at 2-3-1 (9 points). Up next is a Lilywhites club that's right above them at 3-1-2 (10 points). This matchday seven finale gets underway at 11:30 a.m. ET from American Express Stadium in Falmer.
Like I did with Chelsea above, I'm also going to ride the hot hand in this spot - give me Tottenham on the moneyline. Spurs are riding a five-game winning streak of their own, out-scoring their opponents 13-3 during the recent run. That includes a perfect 2-0-0 run in the Premier League, where they've dismantled Brentford (3-1) and Manchester United (3-0), more recently. Ange Postecoglou's men currently lead the PL in xG this season with 13.4 through six matches. I expect them to stay hot here and take care of this downward-trending Brighton bunch.
The Seagulls are winless in their last four Premier League matches, going 0-3-1 over the stretch. The defense has been the issue, as they've conceded at least two goals in each of their last three matches overall. In terms of xGA, Brighton is ranked just 14th this season at 9.9. Tottenham's a respectable fifth in the same category at 6.3. I think it's worth a play on the visitors in this one, especially since we're getting a plus-money payout. Give me the Lilywhites on the moneyline.
Bet: Tottenham Moneyline (+120)