Purdue vs. Fresno State: College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks (Saturday)
College football is back! The 2023 college football season kicked off with an exciting but small Week 0 slate. Now the rest of the teams get to join in on the fun with the start of Week 1. We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s Week 1 game: Purdue vs. Fresno State.
- Thor’s Best College Football Week 1 Bets
- College Football Projected Spreads
- Top College Football Picks & Predictions
Top College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks: Purdue vs. Fresno State
The discrepancy in my number against the market's number boils down to this: I'm higher than the market on Purdue, and I'm certainly lower than the market is on Fresno State.
Fresno returns only four starters on offense - all along the offensive line! The skills will have to be remade from scratch after losing QB Jake Haener, RB Jordan Mims, and WRs Jalen Cropper and Nikko Remigio over the offseason. While the defense returns seven starters, it lost its best edge rusher, DE David Perales, who had 11.5 sacks last year.
The Boilermakers lost HC Jeff Brohm and NFL QB Aidan O'Connell over the offseason. But Purdue did well to replace Brohm with Broyles-winning ex-Illinois DC Ryan Walters. Walters, in turn, signed former Texas QB Hudson Card to run new OC Graham Harrell's Air Raid system. Card is a former top dual-threat recruit who posted an 11/2 TD/INT rate over five career starts at Texas.
Walters' 3-4 defense presses five men to the line of scrimmage. If Purdue makes it difficult for Fresno State to run, it's going to put a ton of pressure on new FSU QB Mikey Keene and his brand-new WR corps to keep up. Keene is accurate but lacks the arm strength to force the defense back.
The pick: Purdue -3.5
Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners
Game Total
Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.
ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42
tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.
Moneyline
The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.
For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.
ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)
tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.
Player Props
Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.
ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California? Over 250 or Under 250
tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.
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