Purdue vs. UConn: National Championship Odds & Picks (2024 NCAA Tournament)
The NCAA tournament is one of the most exciting events in all sports, as the one-game elimination setup makes it likelier to see upsets compared to a best-of-seven format. However, the cream rose to the top in this year’s March Madness, with a final of two No. 1 seeds for the third time in the last nine years. Purdue and UConn were widely considered two of the best three teams (along with Houston) for much of the season, and seemingly had their top seed statuses cemented weeks before the NCAA Tournament. How dominant have the two been? The +223 combined point differential is the highest all-time for two teams entering the title game, and the only other time there was even a +200 or higher point differential was in 2016 when Villanova played North Carolina.
Though this is a national championship matchup of two No. 1 seeds, it still has a David vs. Goliath feel to it, as UConn is 5-0 in national championship games (all since 1999), and is looking to become the first repeat national champion since Florida in 2006-07. Meanwhile, Purdue is playing in its second national championship in school history, and is looking to become the first team from the Big Ten to win the title since Michigan State in 2000.
Here are our best bets for the point spread and over/under for Monday’s national championship.
National Championship Odds & Picks (2024 NCAA Tournament)
All odds via BettingPros consensus
#1 Purdue vs. #1 UConn (-6.5, O/U 146): 9:20 PM ET
Point Spread
History is working against the Boilermakers in this matchup, as UConn has been downright dominant the last two NCAA Tournaments. The Huskies are 11-0 SU and ATS, with their closest margin of victory coming by 13 points. UConn is the first team to ever win and cover 11 straight NCAA Tournament games in the seeding era, and is 27-9 ATS in the tournament since 2009. Its success is not just tied to March Madness, as UConn is 11-1 ATS during its current 12-game winning streak, and has won 32 of 33 games (while covering 28 of those) against non-conference opponents over the last two seasons.
UConn has not lost a non-true road game all season, and its two conference losses against Seton Hall and Creighton came when Donovan Clingan was limited to just 14 minutes after suffering an injury against the Pirates, and the Bluejays were a blistering 14-of-28 from 3-point range in a 19-point home rout of the Huskies. Thus, it will take a gargantuan effort from Purdue not only to pull off the victory, but to even stay close in this matchup, and UConn simply has another gear that Purdue does not have. Nine of Purdue’s final 11 conference wins were by single digits, and we trust UConn’s big game experience, as it returned 42.5% of the minutes from last year’s national championship squad.
There are plenty of -6s available at several sportsbooks, so UConn backers should be sure to shop for the best number.
Over/Under
Bettors should not be influenced by 158 total points scored in the UConn-Alabama semifinal matchup when handicapping the total for this game, as the Boilermakers play a much different brand of basketball than the Crimson Tide’s up-tempo offense. Entering the Final Four, Alabama had allowed 81.5 points per game in the tournament, and that was before facing UConn’s No. 1 offense in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. All things considered, the Huskies likely could have scored north of 100 if they continues to play at Alabama’s breakneck pace, as they averaged 1.37 points per possession and shot 40% from beyond the arc, with an outstanding 20:4 assist-to-turnover ratio. However, Purdue will provide much more resistance, ranking 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency thanks to big man Zach Edey’s paint presence. And while Edey was his usually productive 9-for-14 from inside the arc against N.C. State, his supporting cast shot a combined 3-for-16 from 2-point range, which will not cut it against a Huskies defense that can play Edey straight up with one of the best post defenders in the country in Clingan.
The Under has cashed in six straight UConn games and nine of the last 10, and is also 3-0 in Purdue’s last three games from the Sweet 16 to now. Thus, we are foregoing the fact that the Over cashed in 67.7% (21 of 31) of Purdue’s regular season games this year, as UConn’s defense is a different beast, and nerves should also play a part in a lower-scoring game on the big stage.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.