Raiders vs. Rams: NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay (Week 14)
On Thursday night, the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Rams will square off in LA. These teams are moving in opposite directions, with the Raiders coming off three straight wins and the Rams riding a six-game losing streak. The Rams’ biggest storyline coming into the game is newly-claimed QB Baker Mayfield, who’s in line to start on Thursday after being picked up off waivers Tuesday morning. Vegas, on the other hand, is hoping to get into the thick of the AFC playoff race with a fourth straight win.
With a spread of Raiders -6.5 and a total of 43.5, the books expect this to be a low-scoring game that Las Vegas controls. Here’s a three-leg parlay offered by DraftKings Sportsbook that I’ll be playing on Thursday night.
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Leg 1: O39.5 Alternate Total (-185)
Coming into this game, the case for a defensive showdown seems compelling. The Rams come in with serious question marks at QB, and with a large spread on the game, there’s a decent chance the Raiders get up by enough to sit on their lead in the second half. Despite these factors, I expect both offenses to do enough to hit this alternate over.
Over the last few weeks, the Raiders’ offense has looked exceptional. Three weeks ago they posted 22 points against Denver, who owns the best scoring defense in the NFL. They followed that up with a 40-point outburst against Seattle and a 27-point showing against the Chargers. The Rams have struggled to defend WRs this year and will be without star DT Aaron Donald. This bodes very well for Raiders stars Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams.
While the Rams’ offense has plenty of question marks, they’ve held their own in the past few weeks. They averaged 17.7 points per game in the last three weeks despite being without starting QB Matthew Stafford. Las Vegas’ scoring defense has been in the bottom quarter of the league this season, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Rams find their way to a couple of TDs.
Leg 2: Kyren Williams 17+ Receiving Yards (+140)
While he hasn’t quite been the breakout star fantasy owners were hoping for, Kyren Williams has looked good in limited action for the Rams. He’s been efficient in the passing game – over the last four weeks he has 7 catches on 9 targets for 63 yards. This is less of a bet for Williams, however. It’s more of a bet against the Raiders’ defense.
Las Vegas has allowed 55.5 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs – this ranks last in the league by a significant margin. They’ve struggled mightily in recent weeks, allowing at least 5 catches and at least 62 receiving yards to opposing RBs in each of their last three games. They allow an average of 8.8 yards per catch to opposing RBs, the second-highest mark in the NFL. This has been a weakness that teams have consistently been able to exploit this season.
Williams should be able to get at least a couple of catches on Thursday, and I love his odds of going over 17 receiving yards. This prop is a great value at plus odds.
Leg 3: Davante Adams 8+ Catches (+100)
Davante Adams is having an incredible first season with the Raiders. He’s 5th in the NFL in receptions, 4th in receiving yards, and first in receiving TDs this year. He’s had at least 7 catches in each of his last five games and has averaged 13.4 targets per game over that stretch.
On Thursday, Adams will take on a Rams’ defense that has allowed 14.6 receptions to opposing WRs in the NFL. This is the second-worst mark in the league. Their defense has been even worse over the last five games, as they’ve averaged 17.2 receptions allowed to opposing WRs. They’ve allowed three opposing WRs to go over 8 catches in the last four weeks, and none of those WRs are nearly as good as Adams.
I expect the Raiders to attack the Rams’ pass defense early and often with Adams, and I’d be surprised to see him register fewer than 8 catches.
Parlay Odds: +700
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