Raiders vs. Steelers: NFL Saturday Night Football Odds, Picks & Prediction (Week 16)

The NFL caps its Christmas Eve slate of games by commemorating the 50-year anniversary of the Immaculate Reception, one of the most famous plays in early NFL history. The Raiders, now in Las Vegas, will travel to Pittsburgh for a meeting with the Steelers. Sadly, Franco Harris, the Steelers player who caught the Immaculate Reception, passed away earlier this week. Surely, the NFL will give him a tremendous tribute.

This game features two teams that are on the outside looking in at the AFC playoff race. With matching 6-8 records, the Raiders and Steelers will need to win out and get a ton of help to get in the dance.

Vegas is coming off a miraculous win of their own last week against New England, and Pittsburgh will go back to Kenny Pickett under center after missing time with a concussion.

Which of these teams should we back as Santa Claus gets ready to load up his sleigh? Let’s break down this Christmas Eve night showdown.

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Raiders vs. Steelers: NFL Saturday Night Football Odds, Picks & Prediction (Week 15)

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) | Total 38.5

Raiders looking to recapture last year’s magic 

The Raiders have been one of the most fascinating teams in the league. Vegas has been in pretty much every game and led in many of them. Yet, the Raiders have seven losses by single digits. And an inability to hold late leads will likely cost them a second-consecutive playoff berth.

Raiders fans looking on the bright side can think back to last year when the 6-7 Raiders won four games in a row and wound up in the playoffs.

Recreating that magic might be difficult, considering Vegas has the 32nd-ranked defense in DVOA. Despite a front seven headlined by Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, the Raiders’ pass defense ranks 31st in DVOA thanks to a pitiful secondary and lackluster pass rush. Las Vegas has just 25 sacks on the season, and the overall depth and talent on the unit are among the worst in the league. The good news for Vegas is they’ll face a pedestrian Steelers passing offense and a rookie quarterback.

Offensively, the Vegas offense is rather erratic, and it starts with quarterback Derek Carr, who has failed to complete more than 55% of his throws in each of the last three games. The Raiders’ passing game operates best when Davante Adams is involved early and often. And the unit benefitted from getting Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow back from injuries. But this passing game hasn’t been nearly as good as anticipated heading into the season. Part of that’s on Carr, part of that’s due to injury, and part of the blame has to be shouldered on Josh McDaniels, who has once again struggled to make the leap from coordinator to head coach.

Josh Jacobs has been the savior of this unit. Jacobs is leading the rushing title race, and the Vegas run game ranks eighth in DVOA. A big reason why is an offensive line that leads the league in adjusted line yards. That’ll come in handy against a Steelers front seven that’s been strong against the run.

Steelers are stuck in limbo 

Pittsburgh is in a weird position. The Steelers have a solid defense and a group of skill position weapons but are fighting for a playoff spot while trying to see what they have in the rookie Pickett. The early returns are about what you’d expect from the typical rookie. Pickett has shown flashes of potential but has generally been unsteady. He has four touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a 45.2 QBR that ranks 24th among quarterbacks.

Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled to gain much traction, ranking 18th in DVOA, 21st in passing, and 13th in rushing. The good news is an offensive line that was a detriment last season has improved into a league-average unit, which can only help the rookie passer.

Defensively, Pittsburgh has been strong against the run, especially with T.J. Watt back from injury. Watt and Cam Heyward still make one of the best defensive line duos in the league, and linebacker Alex Highsmith has a league-high 11 sacks. The problem is Pittsburgh’s depth behind those three players, as the Steelers still rank 24th in adjusted sack rate and have just 7.5 combined sacks from the rest of their defense.

Game Pick and Best Bet

This line and total feel about right, and this isn’t one of my favorite games on the board in Week 16. However, I’m not confident that Pickett and this Steelers offense will expose the horrendous Raiders defense. And I could see Crosby and Jones getting home and disrupting Pickett in the pocket against a Steelers offensive line that’s improved but is still a suspect unit.

On the flip side, Vegas will have to establish its running game against this talented Steelers front seven. But I have faith in the Raiders’ offensive line to control the trenches and give Jacobs plenty of rushing lanes to exploit.

I’ll take the road underdog in a game I anticipate will be tight throughout.

The pick: Raiders +2.5 (-110)

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