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Rams vs. 49ers Picks & Player Prop Bets: NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football

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As the holiday season continues, the NFL playoff implications intensify, and Week 15 delivers a critical NFC West battle under the Thursday night lights! I’m Andrew Erickson, here to navigate you through every aspect of this primetime clash between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers, hosted at the renowned Levi’s Stadium.

I’ll be delving into expert analyses on the spread, total, and key player props for this crucial matchup. Whether you’re putting together the ultimate same-game parlay or searching for the best prop bets, I’ve got everything you need for this pivotal NFC West encounter.

Get ready for a contest that’s set to captivate both fans and bettors. So, grab your snacks, get comfortable, and get set to make your bets on this Thursday night face-off. Stay tuned for the full BettingPros Week 15 Primer coming later this week!

NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Sides:

  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with winning records.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 14 home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 16 of the 49ers’ last 25 games.
  • San Francisco is 15-7 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • So far, in 2024, they are 4-3 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys/Bears, not against Arizona/Kansas City/Seattle.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread 4x in their last 14 home games.
  • The 49ers are 9-10 ATS as road favorites in their last 19 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in their last nine games following a win.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 13 games.
  • Since 2023, Rams starters are 4-11 as underdogs straight up. This season, they are 3-5 as underdogs (4-4 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers, Vikings, and Bills.
  • The favorites have won 20 of the Rams' last 24 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Rams' last nine games.
  • The Rams have won each of their last three road games.
  • The Rams have won 8 of their last 11 home games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as road favorites.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games against teams with a losing record.

Totals:

  • Ten of the 49ers’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 4-3 toward the over at home, averaging 47 points per game.
  • The 49ers have been the first to 15 points in 17 of their last 18 games against NFC West opponents. The Rams have scored last in each of their last three games against the 49ers.
  • Six of the 49ers’ last seven games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Rams' last seven games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Rams' last 19 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 14-12 toward the O/U in their last 26 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only seven times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7 and Saints in Week 13. Miami only generated 238 yards against them on Monday Night Football, but they yielded 382 yards of offense to the Patriots in Week 11 and over 480 yards in Week 12 to the Eagles.
  • Five of the Rams’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the last four games between the Rams and 49ers has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

So, fading the 49ers did not work last week. They destroyed the Chicago Bears. I bought too heavily in the dead-cat bounce after Chicago fired HC Matt Eberflus and got burned to a crisp. The Bears were still sick with the #HonoluluFlu. Only the Jaguars (off a bye week, mind you) have covered the spread after facing the Lions in their last game.

But back to the Niners. Yes, the Fraudy Niners, who I will be fading yet again on Thursday Night Football. It's for similar reasons to last week, except I feel much better about their opponent being able to match them blow-for-blow.

Besides, we already saw this matchup play out this season. The Rams beat the 49ers 27-24 with a completely undermanned roster. It was a gutsy effort from Matthew Stafford willing his way to an LA victory. So even though the 49ers vastly out-gained LA - the Rams’ defense is still bad - Los Angeles has more firepower this time.

And so will the 49ers. When they played the Rams in the first matchup, neither George Kittle nor Deebo Samuel played.

I didn't mean to open this write-up with a play on the game total, but it's just how the script went this week. When we see Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay go head-to-head, we see the offenses dominate.

Five of the 49ers' last six games as favorites against the Rams have gone OVER the total points line. And each of the last four games between the Rams and 49ers has gone OVER the total points line.

That among each team's recent O/U trends strongly point toward a high-scoring affair on Thursday night.

Now, back to the sides with the main course finished. Fade the 49ers.

The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games following a win. This team often falls short against better teams, especially when they play at home.

The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 14 home games. This season, they are 4-3 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys/Bears, not against Arizona/Kansas City/Seattle. It doesn't take a genius to figure out which bucket the Rams deserve to fall in.

The Rams are also 3-0 ATS on the road in their last three road games after starting the year 0-3 on the road ATS.

I also think that the red zone will be a deciding factor in the winner of this game.

The 49ers defense ranks 31st, and the offense ranks 22nd. The Rams defense ranks 8th in the red zone, and the offense ranks 13th.

I don't usually like backing the Rams as underdogs, given that they tend to perform poorly against superior teams. But I hardly sold that this 2024 version of the 49ers is truly the superior unit. LA has a real shot of making the playoffs, and they are a dangerous team at full health, as we saw play out last week.

Props:

Kyren Williams has scored the first touchdown in each of the Rams’ last three games. Williams has scored two or more touchdowns in each of his two previous appearances against the 49ers.

Last week, rookie Blake Corum added 8 carries for 34 yards (4.3 YPC). 4 red-zone rush attempts, no touchdowns, no targets. The majority of his carries came on the second drive of the game. We are so live for a Corum anytime TD bet. Williams is coming off a 30-plus touch game on a short week. Corum also has eight-plus carries and 34-plus rushing yards in back-to-back games (with a decent chunk of red zone carries).

The 49ers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to RBs over the last four weeks (and six rushing TDs). Williams scored thrice the last time he faced the Rams this season (he rushed for 89 yards on 24 carries).

Deebo Samuel has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six appearances against the Rams.

Samuel Sr. contributed 22 yards on two receptions (8% Target share) and 13 rushing yards in Week 14. Samuel had one red-zone target, caught for no touchdowns, and two rush attempts in the red zone. He finished with five total carries for 13 yards (two came in the fourth quarter).

Samuel has been beyond terrible for fantasy football purposes, but it was not hard not to view his stock as up entering Week 14, with CMC out the rest of the season. However, his role as a receiver did not change. All he did was see more carries. With Isaac Guerendo battling a foot injury (TBD whether he plays or not), we could see another game where Samuel sees decent rushing volume, as he is a complete afterthought as a receiver.

In Week 14, he was targeted on 14% of his routes run. You are praying that he just takes a screen pass for a TD from inside the red zone. Three of his seven touches came in the red zone.

Samuel missed the Week 3 contest when the 49ers first played the Rams.

I think approaching Samuel in the spot is extremely interesting for betting purposes. Because he is well aware that he has not been getting the ball and has been vocal about it. As a result, all his coaches and teammates talked him up before Thursday night. Needless to say, he is going to likely approach double-digit touches in this contest after seeing seven in Week 14.

This is as classic a "squeaky wheel" narrative as it gets. It also works in Samuel's favor that the team might be down to their fourth-string RB. Deebo Samuel RB1 szn.

The best way I want to approach Samuel's props is with the first TD score. The 49ers tend to score first against the Rams (and other familiar opponents). And I'd imagine they get Samuel involved early. His last TD actually came on a Thursday night back in Week 6.

The over on his 3.5 receptions seems pretty safe (over in four of the last six games). Then I'd pounce on his combined receiving and rushing yardage props.

George Kittle was a standout in Week 14, securing all six targets for 151 yards (25% Target share), including a 33-yard-long reception and 105 yards after the catch. He was targeted once in the red zone but didn't score.

Kittle has had at least 40 receiving yards in every game this season besides one. 45-plus in nine straight games aside from the snowy Buffalo game. Over 56.5 yards in eight of his last 10 games. Take the over on 55.5 receiving yards this week. Projections have him closer to 63-plus yards.

All but two tight ends the Rams have faced have exceeded their yards projection since Week 2.

Jauan Jennings converted seven of eight targets into 90 yards and two red-zone touchdowns (33% Target share, 35% air yards share) in Week 14. He is the 49ers' WR1 for the rest of the season, by all accounts. He destroyed the Rams in his breakout game back in Week 3 to the tune of 174 receiving yards. Take the OVER on his 68.5 yards for Thursday Night. Or tease it up to 80-plus, given that anytime Jennings has hit the OVER this year on his receiving yards, he has at least 89.5 yards.

Go over on 258.5 passing yards on Brock Purdy this week. He bounced back in Week 14 after posting back-to-back duds. He has gone over this number in 6 of his 12 games this season. He threw for 292 passing yards the last time he played the Rams back in Week 3. The Rams’ secondary has been dreadful all year. They rank 31st in EPA/attempt on deep balls this season. Chunk plays are coming.

Tutu Atwell caught all three targets for 45 yards (15 YPC) in Week 14. Meanwhile, Demarcus Robinson had two plays wiped away by penalties, so his final box line of zero catches on one target is misleading. He is still the WR3 in the offense ahead of Atwell. Although the gap - Robinson only ran one more route than Atwell - might be closing a bit. D-Rob has been dealing with injuries, so monitor his status for a short week. It might be sharp to jump on some of these very low Atwell lines if D-Rob gets scratched or is limited. Atwell went four for 93 yards against the 49ers back in Week 3.

With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy this season, Matthew Stafford has tossed for at least 244.5 passing yards in six of his eight starts. Take the over for Week 15.

My Picks:

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