Rams vs. Packers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 5)
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Introducing the Week 5 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 5 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Rams vs. Packers.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 5 Betting Primer>>
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams
Sides:
- The Rams are below 54% ATS as underdogs since the start of 2023.
- The Rams 2023 starters are 2-9 as underdogs straight up. 1-3 as underdogs this season (2-2 ATS) after their massive win against the 49ers.
- The favorites have won 14 of the Rams' last 15 games.
- Green Bay is 10-7 at home in its last 17 home games, 9-8 ATS, but just 40% ATS over its last 14 home games.
- GB as a favorite: 6-14-1 ATS (30%).
- The Packers have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
- The Packers have scored first in each of their last eight road games.
- Since 2023, the Packers have been 10-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 9-3 ATS. Green Bay was 4-7 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
- The Rams have a 23-point implied team total.
Totals:
- Eight of the Rams' last 11 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Rams are 10-7 toward the O/U in their last 17 games.
- Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only five times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
- The Packers are 15-8 toward the over since the start of 2023.
- Ten of the Packers' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half.
- Eight of the Packers’ last 10 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Doesn't take a genius to project how the Rams want to attack this game. Run the ball with Kyren Williams 25-plus times against the Packers. LA has a bye week in Week 6, and the faster they get there...the better. The Rams are so banged up offensively that they have no choice but to just feed Williams as much as possible until their WRs return from injury.
The Rams’ defense is getting pressure (No.1 in pressure rate), but they aren't converting sacks. Per Next Gen Stats, they have converted just 14.0% of those pressures into sacks, the 5th-lowest pressure-to-sack conversion rate in the NFL. Eventually, the sack production will regress to the mean, especially if Jordan Love holds onto the ball as much as he did in Week 4. Per Next Gen Stats, Love had an average time to throw of 3.08 seconds in Week 4 against the Vikings, his longest since Week 4 of last season.
The Rams’ defense is dying due to the lack of sacks because the secondary can't cover once the ball leaves the quarterback's hand. The run defense is also extremely suspect, which is not great against the Packers.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Packers have totaled 19 designed runs of 10 yards or more, the 2nd-most in the NFL. Josh Jacobs has attempted 62.0% of his rushes between the tackle box, where he has averaged 4.0 yards after contact on such carries (3rd-most, minimum 25 inside rushes). The Rams’ rush defense has been vulnerable this season, allowing 4.9 yards per carry on designed rushes (6th-most). With opponents calling designed rushes outside the tackles on 62.1% of carries against the Rams (5th-highest), the Rams defenders have contacted opposing ball carriers behind on the line of scrimmage against just 33.3% of designed outside rushes (2nd-lowest).
There's no doubt that for the Packers to succeed in this matchup, they would look to run the ball effectively to limit the Rams' pass rush. Feed Jacobs and rip play action throws to Reed against zone coverage. Rinse and repeat.
There's certainly a lot of offensive excitement in this matchup, but I can't help but look toward the under at a bloated 49-point total. This seems like a projected total we'd see if the Rams still HAD Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy. As I've stated, I think we could see both teams run the ball a decent amount, potentially slowing down the pace of play. 46, 51, 51, and 42 have been the Rams' game totals this season, averaging 47.5 points per game. So even though the trends point toward the over, I'm banking on some regression to the mean with a rare Packers-Rams under in Week 5.
Player Props:
Kyren Williams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven regular-season appearances.
Jayden Reed has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five appearances with the Packers as favorites.
Per Next Gen Stats, Jayden Reed has recorded 330 of his 336 receiving yards against zone coverage this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL behind only Nico Collins. The Rams have deployed zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL this season.
The most advantageous spot for the Rams’ passing game against the Packers is in the short game. Green Bay ranks 31st in yards per attempt on passes under 10 air yards. Therefore, I expect rookie Jordan Whittington and Colby Parkinson to see the majority of looks for the Rams pass-catchers.
Whittington caught six of eight targets for 62 yards (28% target share last week). The first-year WR saw his role change dramatically with 100% route participation.
This usage was more in line with what we expected from Whittington, although this time, it was not Whittington in the slot. He played 69% of his snaps out wide, which tells me that he will stay involved even when Cooper Kupp and/or Puka Nacua return.
Parkinson caught four of seven targets for 33 yards (24% target share). He was targeted twice in the red zone but didn't score. Parkinson is tied for the NFL lead in red-zone targets (4) but has zero TDs. The usage is pretty strong for Parkinson, but the production has been waning. Given last week's seven targets and this matchup, I think this might be the week for the "Colby" shot to make it into the waste basket.
My Picks: