Rams vs. Packers: NFL Week 15 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
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Rams vs. Packers: NFL Week 15 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets (2022)
Check out our Rams at Packers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Monday, Dec. 19, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Lambeau Field
- TV: ESPN
Rams at Packers: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 14.
- Spread: Packers -7
- Betting Percentages: Rams – 66% bets, 74% money
Rams at Packers: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Rams ATS: 5-7-1 (-18.0% ROI)
- Packers ATS: 5-8 (-25.9% ROI)
Los Angeles Rams: Notable Trends
- HC Sean McVay: 0-5 ATS (91.7% ROI for faders) in temperature of no more than 40 degrees, including postseason
- QB Baker Mayfield: 18-33-1 ATS (24.5% ROI for faders) in post-rookie seasons
Green Bay Packers: Notable Trends
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 98-70-3 ATS (13.9% ROI) as favorite
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 67-37-3 ATS (24.8% ROI) at home
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 9-3-1 ATS (41.8% ROI) off bye
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 4-0-1 ATS (75.4% ROI) as home favorite off bye
Rams at Packers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Rams Offense vs. Packers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.026 | 17 | 0.058 | 26 | 9 |
| Total SR | 44.3% | 18 | 46.2% | 27 | 9 |
| Total DVOA | -12.2% | 26 | 5.0% | 23 | -3 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.126 | 5 | 0.044 | 13 | 8 |
| Dropback SR | 49.3% | 6 | 45.0% | 11 | 5 |
| Pass DVOA | -13.2% | 26 | 12.0% | 32 | 6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.8% | 30 | 6.4% | 22 | -8 |
| Rush EPA | -0.130 | 26 | 0.073 | 31 | 5 |
| Rush SR | 36.7% | 30 | 47.6% | 32 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | -15.8% | 30 | 5.4% | 22 | -8 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.03 | 28 | 5.20 | 32 | 4 |
| Yards per Play | 4.7 | 32 | 5.8 | 26 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 16.8 | 29 | 23.2 | 21 | -8 |
Packers Offense vs. Rams Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.058 | 7 | 0.03 | 18 | 11 |
| Total SR | 46.2% | 6 | 44.4% | 17 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | 7.5% | 11 | -0.9% | 14 | 3 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.044 | 20 | 0.142 | 29 | 9 |
| Dropback SR | 45.0% | 22 | 50.1% | 28 | 6 |
| Pass DVOA | 7.6% | 7 | -17.5% | 5 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.2% | 5 | 7.2% | 15 | 10 |
| Rush EPA | 0.073 | 2 | -0.156 | 1 | -1 |
| Rush SR | 47.6% | 1 | 35.0% | 3 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | 6.9% | 11 | 1.7% | 15 | 4 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.83 | 2 | 4.26 | 14 | 12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 11 | 5.5 | 16 | 5 |
| Points per Game | 20.2 | 23 | 22.8 | 16 | -7 |
Rams at Packers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 240 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Baker Mayfield
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | -0.024 | 33 |
| AY/A | 5.9 | 31 |
| QBR | 23.2 | 31 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -3.7 | 46 |
Career: Baker Mayfield
- AY/A: 6.9
- QB Elo per Game: -45.7
2022: Aaron Rodgers
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.059 | 22 |
| AY/A | 6.9 | 17 |
| QBR | 41.4 | 26 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.0 | 16 |
Career: Aaron Rodgers
- AY/A: 8.4
- QB Elo per Game: 78.4
Key Takeaway: Aaron Rodgers Is a Home Favorite Off a Bye
I jumped on this game to early (-9 in the lookahead market), but even after adjusting the Rams up +1.25 points after their surprising come-from-behind 17-16 win over the Raiders last week I still have this game projected at Packers -9.
So given that this line is -6.5 and -7 in the market, I still see value on the Packers.
The analysis here is fairly straightforward: The Packers aren’t nearly as bad as the Rams.
Say whatever you want about Rodgers, but he’s No. 2 in the league with nine multi-touchdown passing games.
And he has a good matchup: The Rams are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.126).
And Rodgers is a favorite, at home and coming off the bye: He historically has crushed in each of those situations — and in the total eclipse spot where all three of those edges have aligned in the regular season he’s an undefeated 4-0-1 ATS.
In a cold weather game (forecast of five degrees Fahrenheit) against a warm weather dome team, I’m fine with laying -7 on Rodgers at home with eight extra days to rest and prepare.
Best Line: Packers -6.5 (-115, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Packers -9 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection: Packers -9
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