Ravens at Browns: NFL Week 15 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
Below, let’s take a closer look at my take for Ravens at Browns.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Ravens at Browns: NFL Week 15 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets (2022)
Check out our Ravens at Browns matchup page.
- Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022, 4:30 pm ET
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium
- TV: NFL
Ravens at Browns: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 14.
- Spread: Browns -3
- Betting Percentages: Browns – 52% bets, 64% money
Ravens at Browns: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Ravens ATS: 6-7 (-11.9% ROI)
- Browns ATS: 6-6-1 (-4.4% ROI)
Ravens at Browns: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Ravens Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.011 | 19 | 0.067 | 28 | 9 |
| Total SR | 44.6% | 13 | 45.5% | 23 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 11.3% | 6 | 9.0% | 27 | 21 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.075 | 15 | 0.056 | 14 | -1 |
| Dropback SR | 47.7% | 8 | 46.1% | 15 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 10.8% | 2 | 9.5% | 30 | 28 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.9% | 21 | 6.8% | 17 | -4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.130 | 26 | 0.083 | 32 | 6 |
| Rush SR | 37.6% | 27 | 44.7% | 27 | 0 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.2% | 8 | 7.2% | 27 | 19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.23 | 21 | 4.93 | 30 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 14 | 5.7 | 20 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 23.2 | 12 | 24.8 | 27 | 15 |
Browns Offense vs. Ravens Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.063 | 5 | 0.009 | 14 | 9 |
| Total SR | 45.6% | 7 | 44.2% | 15 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 9.3% | 8 | -6.4% | 8 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.048 | 19 | 0.071 | 16 | -3 |
| Dropback SR | 46.1% | 15 | 47.1% | 22 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 4.2% | 8 | -15.4% | 7 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 12 | 8.4% | 6 | -6 |
| Rush EPA | 0.085 | 1 | -0.127 | 5 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 44.9% | 3 | 38.0% | 5 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.4% | 14 | -5.8% | 9 | -5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.34 | 16 | 4.08 | 8 | -8 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 14 | 5.5 | 16 | 2 |
| Points per Game | 23.1 | 13 | 19.2 | 8 | -5 |
Ravens at Browns: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 240 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Tyler Huntley
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -3.9 | 47 |
Career: Tyler Huntley
- AY/A: 5.1
- QB Elo per Game: -17.0
2022: Deshaun Watson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.3 | 6 |
Career: Deshaun Watson
- AY/A: 8.5
- QB Elo per Game: 58.3
Key Takeaway: Tyler Huntley Is Not Lamar Jackson
I assume that QB Tyler Huntley (concussion) will be able to start this Saturday. He did practice fully on Wednesday, which is a strongly positive sign. But he’s still in the league’s protocol — and part of the protocol (Phase Five) calls for guys to return to practice, which may be a full session that involves contact.
But that doesn’t mean he will be able to practice fully without once again experiencing concussion-like symptoms. And a full practice doesn’t mean that he automatically exits the protocol. At least a couple times this year we’ve seen a player practice fully and then still fail to clear the protocol within a week.
It’s likelier than not that Huntley starts this game, but with one less day than usual to recover he’s not guaranteed to play. There’s a small chance third-string rookie QB Anthony Brown draws the start.
And even if Huntley plays, he’s a significant downgrade from starter Lamar Jackson. At NFElo, Jackson is worth +1.1 points to the spread this year, whereas Huntley is worth -3.9 points.
I more conservatively have the dropoff from Jackson to Huntley at -4.5 points (and I’m thinking about moving it to -4) — but either way the difference is large.
Although they have similar playing styles, Jackson is an MVP-caliber quarterback with a 7.6 AY/A and 7.4% sack rate, whereas Huntley is a limited backup with a 5.1 AY/A and 8.1% sack rate.
Browns QB Deshaun Watson (5.3 AY/A) has underwhelmed in his return to action. But without Jackson, I have the Ravens as 2.5 points worst then the Browns on a neutral field (Massey-Peabody has it at 2.6) — and this game is being played in Cleveland.
The downgrade from Jackson to Huntley is the difference in this game.
Best Line: Browns -2.5 (-110, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Browns -2.5 (-115)
Personal Projection: Browns -4
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts