Ravens vs. Steelers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Wild Card Weekend)
Introducing the Wild Card Weekend edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Wild Card Weekend matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Ravens vs. Steelers.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Wild Card Weekend Betting Primer>>
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Sides:
- The Ravens have covered the spread in 10 of their last 15 games.
- Baltimore is 17-7 on the money line as home favorites but just 11-13 ATS as home favorites and 8-4-1 ATS as home favorites in their last 13.
- In each of the Ravens' last four games, the first score has been a Ravens Touchdown.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 games following a loss.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 games following a division loss.
- Baltimore is 17-6 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 13-5 ATS as a road favorite in their last 18 applicable appearances.
- The underdogs have covered the spread between the Steelers and Ravens in nine of the last 11 games.
- The Steelers have won six of their last seven games as underdogs against the Ravens.
- The Steelers have lost each of their last five postseason games.
- The Steelers have won 13 of their last 21 games.
- The Steelers have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
- The Steelers are 15-10 ATS on the road (60%)
- The Steelers are 8-8 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
- They are 10-8 as road underdogs. The only road games they haven't covered were against the Browns/Bills/Eagles/Ravens or contests where they were less than 2-point underdogs or by double-digits.
- In six of the Steelers’ last 12 games, the first score has been a Steelers Field Goal.
- Their opponents have scored last in four of the Steelers’ last eight games.
- The Steelers have lost the first quarter in their last six games.
- As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-4 ATS.
- The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.
- The Steelers are 6-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Totals:
- Eight of the last nine games between the Steelers and Ravens have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (12 of their last 16), but they tended to be against better offenses.
- The Ravens are 13-4 toward the over this season.
- Thirteen of the Ravens’ last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line. Their lowest total game this season has been 34 and 33 points (previous lows of 43 and 45 points).
- The Ravens have gone OVER in 17 of the last 22 games.
- Ten of the Ravens’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Ravens' last nine road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Steelers are 9-8 toward the under this season. 2-6 O/U at home this season (39.6 points per game).
- Seven of the Steelers’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Steelers’ last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Steelers' last 19 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Steelers’ last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Underdogs in matchups between Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh have an impressive track record, with just shy of an 80%-win rate against the spread when receiving at least three points.
The underdogs have covered the spread between the Steelers and Ravens in nine of the last 11 games. The Steelers have WON six of their last seven games as underdogs against the Ravens.
These AFC North matchups always seem to be crazy tight, but the current spread of Ravens -10 suggests this game will be a one-sided contest. Usually, I am squeamish toward double-digit spreads, but I feel it's way too favored toward Baltimore despite the Steelers' recent falloff.
Because that's where this massive point spread is coming from. What we have seen from these two teams over the last month is the driver behind the spread and not anything historically related to PIT-BAL matchups or Tomlin as a road underdog, etc.
And maybe this is a massive blind spot for me–weighing too heavily into the past compared to the present. But let's not get things too twisted. We saw these teams play in Baltimore in Week 16, which was not that long ago.
The closing line spread was Ravens -7. The game was tied 17-17 with under five minutes remaining in the third quarter. After the Steelers tied the game on a touchdown, kicker Chris Boswell kicked the ball out of bounds on the ensuing kickoff, resulting in a short field for Baltimore. They scored a touchdown on a short field six plays later.
The score was then 24-17 until Russell Wilson was picked off by cornerback Marlon Humphrey for six, extending the Raven’s lead to 14 points.
The Ravens fumbled three times and didn't lose any of them in the Week 16 game.
I should also note that the Steelers played without many of their best players. Joey Porter Jr. got injured in this game, playing just 26% of the snaps. George Pickens, DeShon Elliott, Larry Ogunjobi, and Donte Jackson were all inactive. T.J. Watt was also nursing an ankle injury.
Meanwhile, the Ravens will likely be without No. 1 and Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers in the Wildcard Round.
The value is so clearly on the Steelers' side to cover this egregiously bloated spread. Steel Curtain +10.
As for the total, it's an under play as I look for the Steelers to cover. When they beat the Ravens earlier this season, the game total went way under 43.5 points. The matchup went over in Baltimore, but the pick-six and a late field goal by the Ravens pushed it over the total with the last 10 points. It would have finished much closer to 41 points.
Props:
Week 19 will be the third time the Ravens will face the Steelers this season. Notable numbers to review based on the previous two matchups this season:
Lamar Jackson has thrown for exactly 207 passing yards in both of his matchups versus the Steelers this season.
The Ravens QB has thrown for fewer than 224.5 passing yards in three straight games and five of his last seven contests. Take the passing yards under for Week 19, especially if he misses Flowers.
On the ground in Week 18, Najee Harris led the Steelers with 12 carries for 36 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown. His longest run went for 11 yards. Jaylen Warren also contributed six carries for 21 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per carry, and had a long run of 9 yards.
Very bizarre usage for the backfield, given the recent trends heavily favoring Warren. In Week 18, Harris out-snapped Warren 49% to 38%. He out-carried him nine to five in the first half.
Harris also got banged up in the fourth quarter, although he returned to the game. I liked Warren a lot in this game, so I was shocked to see him used so little, especially as a receiver (one target). First time in a month that Harris out-snapped Warren.
Warren has at least 25 receiving yards in six of his last nine games.
Harris handled 18 carries for 63 yards in his first matchup versus Baltimore (nine for 42 in the second). Warren contributed 41 yards on nine carries in his first matchup against the Ravens and 48 yards in the second.
Warren also caught all 4 of his targets for 27 yards in the first game and five for 44 in the second. I'm going right back to the over on his receiving yards prop this week at 19.5 yards.
Pat Freiermuth was the standout target for Wilson in Week 18, catching eight passes for 85 yards and scoring a touchdown-12 total targets when you include penalties. The Steelers' tight end was targeted on 39% of his routes run.
I'd expect him to continue to produce in another plus-matchup for TEs in Week 19. However, the Ravens have had his number this season.
Freiermuth had just 14 yards on two receptions from 2 targets in the first matchup versus the Ravens. In the second game, he recorded three receptions for 16 yards.
It might be wise to take the under on his receiving yards and receptions props this week. With Wilson and Pickens in the lineup, Freiermuth has surpassed 4.5 catches three times in eight games (38%).
My Picks