ReliaQuest Bowl: College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (Mississippi State vs. Illinois)
Here are Thor Nystrom’s best bets for the College Football Bowl Game: ReliaQuest Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through January 1): 24-16-1 ATS (60.0%)
2022 combined: 106-82-4 ATS (56.4%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
ReliaQuest Bowl: College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (Mississippi State vs. Illinois)
Monday, January 2 | 11:00 AM
Mississippi State (-1.5) vs. Illinois | Total: 46
ATL: MSU -5.9 | ATT: 48
Mississippi State
RB Dillon Johnson (Transfer portal)
RB Ke’Travion Hargrove (Transfer portal)
RB J.J. Jernighan (Transfer portal)
RB ​​Ke’Travion Hargrove (Transfer portal)
WR Rara Thomas (Transfer portal)
WR Zavion Thomas (Transfer portal)
WR Scoobie Ford (Transfer portal)
S Collin Duncan (Unclear)
S Dylan Lawrence (Transfer portal)
CB Emmanuel Forbes and S Jackie Matthews both declared for the NFL draft – but have importantly announced that they plan to play in this against Illinois.
S Duncan also declared for the draft, but didn’t specify whether or not he would play in the bowl. Duncan was the defense’s second-highest graded starter behind Forbes. Considering that Forbes and Matthews were very clear in their intentions to play, while Duncan has not been, our current best guess is that Duncan will not play – but that’s just a guess as of this writing (Dec. 24).
WR Rare Thomas posted 44 catches this fall as one of the team’s four starting receivers. Mississippi State has the depth to cover for his loss – even with the losses of buried-on-the-depth chart WRs Zavion Thomas and Ford – but the Bulldogs’ receiving corps greatly underwhelmed this fall and WR Rara Thomas was the highest-graded pass-catcher of the top-four snap-getters in that group.
RB Johnson was one-half of MSU’s RB platoon. Johnson (81.2 PFF grade) slightly outplayed RB Jo’quavious Marks (75.8). Marks will need to shoulder more usage in the bowl, especially with RB4 Jernighan and RB6 Hargrove also out the door. This means that redshirt freshman Simeon Price will have to prepare for more usage.
New HC Zach Arnett said the Bulldogs are at “full strength†heading into this game. That’s pretty close to the truth.
Illinois
RB Chase Brown (Opt-out)
RB DD Snyder (Transfer portal)
RB Josh McCray (Injury)
RB Aidan Laughery (injury)
TE Luke Ford (Opt-out)
LB Ezekiel Holmes (Injury)
CB Devon Witherspoon (Opt-out)
CB Tahveon Nicholson (Injury)
S Sydney Brown (Opt-out)
CB Witherspoon and S Brown opted-out and declared for the NFL Draft on Dec. 17. Each was named to First-Team All-Big 10 for their work in the regular season.
Witherspoon was PFFâ€s No. 2 graded Power 5 cornerback. Witherspoon led the country in completion percentage against (33.8) and forced incompletions (16), per PFF. A consensus all-American in 2022, Witherspoon is a projected first-round pick.
CB Brown started all five seasons he was on campus. During the 2022 regular season, Brown tied for the FBS lead with six interceptions. Last year, Minnesota HC P.J. Fleck compared the hard-hitting Brown to Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu.
CB Brown’s twin brother, RB Chase Brown, opted-out of the bowl on Dec. 23, similarly declaring his intention to enter the NFL Draft. RB Brown was the offense’s workhorse bellcow, leading the P5 in the regular season with 1,643 rushing yards to go with 10 TD.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. currently lists Brown as the No. 9 RB in the class. For whatever it’s worth, Kiper ranks S Sydney Brown as the No. 7 safety in the draft.
It’ll likely be RB Reggie Love III’s show in the bowl. Love has shown workmanlike efficiency in the past. This year, with Brown assuming so much usage, Love was only used sporadically, totaling just 276 yards. At least he’ll be fresh for all the touches that figure to be coming his way.
TE Ford, a projected UDFA, was a somewhat surprising addition to Illinois’ opt-out list. The 6-foot-6, 265-pound Ford had 10 receptions for 88 yards in 2022. Despite the meager receiving production, Ford was a valued blocker in the Illini’s physical downhill ground attack. A top prospect coming out of high school, Ford originally signed with Georgia before returning home to finish his career at Illinois.
C Bret Bielema is lobbying hard for star CB Quan Martin to play in this game. Martin is the last of Illinois’ stars who has yet to announce – all the others have ultimately decided to opt-out. Illini DL Johnny Newton, meanwhile, said he will play in the bowl game.
Backup RB McCray is probable, while RB Laughery is questionable. LB Holmes and CB Nicholson were previously ruled out for the season with injuries.
Coaching news
Mississippi State HC Mike Leach died on Dec. 12 following complications to a heart condition. The day before, Leach collapsed at his home in Starkville. At the time of his death, Leach ranked No. 5 among active coaches in wins. Among the FBS’ single-season passing yardage leaders, four-of-the-top-nine were coached by Leach. Leach was 61.
MSU’s administration, who initially had tabbed DC Zach Arnett as interim HC for the bowl, hired Arnett as permanent head coach in the aftermath of the tragedy. Arnett’s signature 3-3-5 scheme performed well this season, putting him in a position to become the FBS’ youngest HC at 36. Prior to joining Leach’s Mississippi State staff in 2020, Arnett logged nine seasons as an assistant at San Diego State under former HC Rocky Long.
Meanwhile, Illinois DC Ryan Walters accepted the Purdue head coaching job on Dec. 13. He replaces Jeff Brohm. Walters was a finalist for the Broyles Award this season. The Illini defense took incredible leaps in the regular season, becoming a dominant unit that finished No. 1 in fewest points allowed and No. 2 in fewest yards allowed. The 36-year-old Walters becomes the fourth-youngest HC in the FBS.
Handicap
Illinois broke out with an 8-4 regular season behind a physical, reliable ground attack and a nasty, No. 3-ranked SP+ defense. But the Illini will play the bowl without several underpinnings of that ethos, including RB Chase Brown, who would have needed only 90 run yards in this game to lock-up the FBS’ rushing title this season.
To try to absorb the blow of RB Brown loss, the Illini need a strong game from the RB2/3 Love/McCray duo, and it needs a big game from QB Tommy DeVito. Mississippi State’s strong defense – No. 27 SP+ – remains mostly-intact for the bowl. MSU is solid against both the run and pass.
The Bulldogs’ defensive weakness is allowing explosive plays, No. 85 marginal explosiveness. But the Illini didn’t generate those even while at full-strength on offense, ranking No. 115 in the same category.
Illinois’ No. 1-ranked pass defense against Mississippi State’s Air Raid would have been a fabulous unit-on-unit matchup… had the Illini not lost two studs in the secondary to opt-out. The Illini still have play-makers back there, but the jobs of the carry-overs just got a lot more difficult.
MSU ranked No. 8 in completion percentage during the regular season, while Illinois’ defense ranked No. 1 in that category. Can Illinois remain viable in this area with a compromised unit? One area the Illini will have a pronounced advantage: The Illini’s defense ranked No. 3 in havoc, while MSU’s offense ranked No. 83 in that category.
If both of these teams had been at full-strength, we would have been on Illinois. But the Illini lose far more value to inactives. And with less ability to control the clock on offense with the run, and a secondary filled with question marks against a pass-happy team, the advantageous areas of the matchups have dried-up on paper.
The pick: Mississippi State -1.5
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