Renegades vs. Defenders XFL Championship Picks & Predictions (2023)
After 10 weeks of regular season action, the XFL Playoffs kicked off two weeks ago. The South Division Championship matchup was between the 4-6 Arlington Renegades and the 7-3 Houston Roughnecks. Despite being a heavy favorite, Houston choked in playoffs. Their offense struggled, while their defense wasn't much better. The Roughnecks’ only touchdown came on a one-yard run by Jeremy Cox in the second quarter. Meanwhile, recently acquired quarterback Luis Perez had 289 passing yards and three touchdowns for the Renegades in the win.
While the South Division Championship had a surprise outcome, the North Division Championship game went as most predicted. The 9-1 D.C. Defenders defeated the 7-3 Seattle Sea Dragons, 37-21. Quarterback Jordan Ta'amu had 258 passing yards and two touchdowns in the win, while running back Cam'Ron Harris scored twice on only five rushing attempts. The Defenders had defeated the Sea Dragons twice during the regular season, winning the Week 1 matchup 22-18 and the Week 8 contest 29-28.
It's the final game of the 2023 XFL season, so let's look at which side of the 6.5-point spread bettors should take this week.
XFL Championship Game Spread Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arlington Renegades vs. D.C. Defenders - May 13 @ 8:00 p.m. ET
Arlington didn't have an ideal regular season, ending the year with a 4-6 record. Their four wins games came against the three worst teams in the XFL. Furthermore, the Renegades hadn't defeated a team with a winning record until two weeks ago against the Roughnecks. Yet they did play better later in the year. They lost by an average of 8.8 points per game during the regular season. However, the Week 10 matchup against the Roughnecks meant nothing to the Renegades.
Removing that matchup from the equation, Arlington lost by 7.8 points per game on average. The team kept most of their matchups close. The Renegades’ margin of defeat was 5.9 points per game during the regular season. However, they only had two losses by more than one possession, including the meaningless Week 10 matchup.
Meanwhile, the Defenders steamrolled through the regular season with a 9-1 record. Their only loss of the year came in Week 7 to the previously winless Orlando Guardians 37-36. In hindsight, the loss was good for the team as it was a wake-up call. The Defenders won their first six games by an average of 9.2 points per game, winning half of those matchups by 11 or more. However, things changed after the loss to Orlando.
D.C. won their final three games of the regular season following the loss to the Guardians. Yet, all three wins were by two or fewer points. After Defenders ran through their opponents to start the year, the team showed they could also win the hard-fought tight matchups. D.C. won their nine regular season contests by an average of 6.6 points per game. Furthermore, the Defenders' average margin of victory for the regular season was 5.8 points per contest.
After Arlington's impressive win two weeks ago, I wouldn't be shocked to see head coach Bob Stoops pull off another upset and win the championship despite a below .500 regular season record. These two teams faced off once during the regular season, with the Defenders getting a 28-26 victory in Week 9.
But the Renegades played well to end the regular season and again in the playoffs. Removing the meaningless Week 10 matchup, Arlington has two wins and a two-point loss to D.C. By comparison; the Defenders had three straight close victories before their blowout win in the playoffs two weeks ago.
The Renegades pulled a fast one on the Roughnecks and got the upset victory. The Defenders saw what happened and won't let themselves get embarrassed. Arlington will keep it within one score but won't come away with the win.
Pick: Renegades +6.5 (-110)
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.