Rose Bowl: College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (Utah vs. Penn State)
Here are Thor Nystrom’s best bets for the College Football Bowl Game: Rose Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through January 1): 24-16-1 ATS (60.0%)
2022 combined: 106-82-4 ATS (56.4%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Rose Bowl: College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (Utah vs. Penn State)
Monday, January 2 | 4:00 PM
Utah (-2.5) vs. Penn State | Total: 52.5
ATL: Utah -0.7 | ATT: 61
Penn State
QB Christian Veilleux (Transfer portal)
RB Keyvone Lee (Injury)
WR Parker Washington (Opt-out)
WR Jaden Dottin (Injury)
OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Injury)
DT Rodney McGraw (Transfer portal)
EDGE Davon Townley Jr. (Transfer portal)
CB Joey Porter Jr. (Opt-out)
CB Jeffrey Davis (Transfer portal)
WR Washington, who missed the last two games with injury, declared for the NFL Draft and opted out. He had 46 catches for 611 yards and two TD this fall. All-time in Penn State history, Washington ranks No. 9 in catches, No. 12 in yardage and No. 16 in receiving TD. The 5-foot-10, 212-pounder could be a Day 2 pick.
CB Porter Jr. declared for the draft and opted-out. One of the nation’s best cover corners, Porter was rarely tested by opposing quarterbacks. He was a first-team All-Big Ten selection and second-team All-American in 2022. The 6-foot-2, 194-pounder is a likely first-round pick in the spring.
LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu missed the last four games and is up in the air for this one. He did surprisingly announce that he’ll return to school next year, so his status is only health-dependent. Fashanu was a potential top-50 pick. Fashanu is an elite pass-blocker.
Penn State DE Nick Tarburton declared for the NFL Draft but announced on social media he will play in the Rose Bowl first. TE Brenton Strange did the same.
RB Lee and WR Dottin, both backups, are out indefinitely with undisclosed injuries.
Utah
RB Tavion Thomas (Opt-out)
TE Dalton Kincaid (Opt-out)
TE Brant Kuithe (Injury)
TE Landon Morris (Transfer portal)
EDGE Tyler Wegis (Transfer portal)
LB Ethan Calvert (Transfer portal)
LB Mason Tufaga (Transfer portal)
CB Malone Mataele (Transfer portal)
CB Clark Phillips III (Opt-out)
TE Kincaid declared for the NFL Draft and opted-out on Dec. 12. This wasn’t a huge surprise. Kincaid was clearly compromised in the Pac-12 title game, moving gingerly. His draft stock soared as much as any other tight end in the nation this season, so you can’t blame him for not playing if not 100-percent.
The Utes had a top-3 tight end room in the nation at the beginning of the season. But TE Kuithe’s season-ending leg injury in September and Kincaid’s opt-out change that equation a bit for this game.
RB Thomas declared for the draft and opted out late last month. He is a good back, but Utah has a solid three-man committee backfield even without him. The Utes’ RB depth is still a strength.
CB Phillips’ opt-out hurts the most. He was one of the nation’s stickiest cover corners, and will be highly sought-after in the NFL Draft this spring. Phillips was the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year in 2022.
CB Mataele stopped playing heavy snaps around mid-season. He appeared in only five games before leaving the team to pursue a transfer.
EDGE Wegis, and LBs Tufaga and Calvert were little-used backups.
Handicap
Each defense’s weakness is stopping the run. This is a big-advantage for Utah in the handicap: The Utes’ rushing offense, despite losing RB Thomas, has remained dangerous. The Nittany Lions’ rushing offense has been hit-or-miss all campaign.
That makes this a key matchup: Can PSU’s run offense, which ranked a mere No. 86 success rate and No. 105 efficiency during the season, move the ball any on Utah’s defensive weakness? The Utes’ run defense ranked No. 58 and No. 93 in the same categories.
But here’s an area where PSU could pile up yards: PSU ranked No. 29 in rushing explosion, while Utah’s run defense ranked No. 126 in the same category. PSU RB Nick Singleton has the speed to break it. Penn State’s ground attack isn’t likely to be efficient – but can it rip off multiple long runs to make up for that?
We know that Utah’s three-headed rushing attack should consistently nick PSU’s subpar run defense. So PSU’s rushing explosion needs to make up for that difference.
In the passing games, each pass defense ranked top-21 in success rate but has now lost its lockdown CB1. That probably comes out in the wash in the handicap. Here’s two qualitative differences: Utah has the far superior pass-rush, but Penn State allows far-fewer explosive air plays.
This comes down to whether you prefer efficiency or high-variance. Utah’s passing offense is more efficient than Penn State’s, but PSU generates more explosive plays. Utah QB Cam Rising and PSU QB Sean Clifford will both play, but Rising is out both of his stud tight ends while Clifford is deprived WR Washington’s services.
It also comes down to how much PSU QB Clifford can evade Utah’s heat. Penn State ranks only No. 79 in pressure rate, a category Utah’s defense ranks No. 6 in. Will the Utes be able to convert those pressures into sacks and unforced errors, as they did against USC?
Both defenses have top-10 havoc rates, while both offenses avoid havoc at a top-20 rate. But, again, Utah will generate heat and Clifford needs to be able to dance out of it. Utah’s secondary has the advantage on PSU’s pass-catchers, with opt-outs baked in.
The side handicap is extremely close to the margins with opt-outs baked in. We’d slightly lean PSU, but not enough to buy a ticket. Both coaches are trustworthy. PSU HC James Franklin is a career 6-4 ATS in bowl, while Utah HC Kyle Whittingham is 9-5 ATS.
Instead we’re going to buy a ticket on the over. Both run offenses will have some degree of success, and both starting quarterbacks are playing. Meanwhile, both defenses are out their lockdown corners.
The pick: Over 52.5
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