Navigate

Saints vs. Texans: NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

by |

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Saints vs. Texans.

NFL Betting Primer: Saints vs. Texans

Houston Texans (HOU 1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

When I first looked at the opening lines for the Week 6 slate, the Texans at +2.5 stood out to me like a sore thumb. Playing at home after a close road loss, the Texans are primed to bounce back here versus a completely overrated Saints team. Now, New Orleans took care of business versus a hapless Patriots team, but I think that is highly overrating them in the betting market. Early bettors agreed, moving the line from +2.5 to +1.5 Houston since the lines opened.

Just bet the Texans ML.

Because C.J. Stroud is going to have more time than ever to rip the Saints secondary. Keep in mind that the Saints rank 24th in pressure rate. And the Texans OL is getting healthy at the right time. Last week with Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard and Shaq Mason all back, Stroud faced Week 5’s LOWEST PRESSURE RATE. This offense is just starting to heat up. And give credit to Stroud as he put his team in a position to win last week, but they came up just short of victory.

Stroud’s passer rating from a clean pocket this season? 5th best in the NFL. 3rd in yards per attempt. 7 TDs and 0 interceptions. Shreds Ville is coming. The Saints are allowing TDs through the air at the league’s second-highest rate. And I think Stroud is by far the best QB they have faced all season.

At home where the Texans and Stroud have averaged over 300 passing yards per game, I absolutely love them in this spot. We saw firsthand that Dallas’ big win over the Patriots did nothing but make them overvalued the following week. Don’t fall for the same trap as the Saints.

As for the total, I am likely leaning toward the under (although I just like the Texans ML more). The Saints are 5-0 toward the under this season. And although I like Stroud to do damage, the Texans affinity with rushing the ball (second in neutral rushing rate) creates concerns with getting a high-totaled game. As does the Saints’ inability to score in the red zone.

My Picks:

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App