Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday Night Football (Raiders vs. Chiefs)
On Monday night, the Las Vegas Raiders will head to Arrowhead to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams are coming off of big games in Week 4, with the Raiders notching their first win of the season against the Broncos and the Chiefs dominating in Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football.
With a total of 51.5, this game projects to be the highest-scoring of the week. If this game goes anything like last year’s matchups between these two, the Chiefs will be responsible for most of that scoring. Kansas City outscored the Raiders 89-23 in two series wins last year. I expect the Raiders to keep it closer this year, but both offenses should be able to find their footing on Monday night. Below is a 4-leg, +750 parlay I’ll be playing for the game.
Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday Night Football
Leg 1: Patrick Mahomes Over 304.5 Passing Yards
It feels like the biggest risk to Patrick Mahomes putting up numbers on Monday is the Chiefs getting up by so much that he doesn’t need to throw late. Mahomes is, unsurprisingly, off to an excellent start this season. He’s averaging 276.5 passing yards per game against a schedule that’s been well above league average defending the pass.
Unfortunately for Las Vegas, they aren’t a defense that has defended the pass particularly well. The Raiders allow 7.5 yards per pass attempt, a bottom-five mark in the NFL. These numbers have come against QBs that have struggled at times this season – Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Ryan Tannehill were three of the four opposing QBs.
This defense was absolutely torched by Mahomes last year, allowing 664 yards on 74 attempts (9.0 yards/attempt). If the game is close enough that Mahomes gets his typical 35-40 attempts in, 305 yards at plus money is a mark I feel good betting on.
Leg 2: Derek Carr Over 279.5 Passing Yards
Despite the Raiders’ slow start, Derek Carr has put up solid numbers this season. His 1,038 passing yards don’t put him too far behind Mahomes on the season. These numbers haven’t been inflated by the Raiders needing to climb back from too many big deficits either – each of Las Vegas’ losses is by one possession.
On the other hand, the Chiefs’ pass defense has been bottom-five in yardage allowed this year. They have seen many more attempts than the average defense (nearly 44 per game) due to their opponents often being down big, but there’s a chance they find themselves in a similar spot Monday. Carr has averaged 38.5 attempts per game this season, and I won’t be surprised if he goes over that mark Monday to keep up with the Chiefs’ high-powered offense.
I expect both QBs to throw the ball early and often, and neither defense has been exceptional against the pass. For that reason, I’m riding with both QBs’ yardage overs.
Leg 3: Josh Jacobs Under 64.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Jacobs has had a solid start to the season, rushing for 84 yards per game on average. However, the prices offered for his rushing props on Monday feel like an overreaction to his huge game last week.
Jacobs was the focal point of the Raiders’ Week 4 win over the Broncos, carrying the ball 28 times for 144 yards and 2 TDs. Jacobs got plenty of opportunities as the Raiders tried to put the game away late, and averaged over five yards per carry on those opportunities. I don’t expect the game flow Monday to be anything like that Broncos game, though. Jacobs hasn’t necessarily been a high volume back in the two games this year that the Raiders weren’t playing from ahead. Against the Titans and Chargers, two games that the Raiders were close or trailing for most of the game, Jacobs totaled 123 total yards on 23 total carries. I think his workload will be in the 10-12 carry range, on par with these games.
The Chiefs’ defense has also been exceptional defending the run this year. Kansas City has the lowest rush yards per game allowed by RBs on the season (52.3 avg) and allows a minuscule 3.2 yards per carry to RBs.
Given the Chiefs’ tough run defense, I just don’t see a scenario where Jacobs gets enough carries to break 65 yards on Monday.
Leg 4: Travis Kelce Anytime TD
Patrick Mahomes’ favorite receiver is off to another amazing season in 2022. Kelce has put up 322 yards on 26 catches so far this season and has scored in 3 of the Chiefs’ 4 games this year.
Kelce is a problem for opposing defenses all over the field but has done serious damage in the red zone this year. He has commanded a 27.5% red zone target share, and all 3 of his TDs have come in the red zone. The Chiefs have looked at tight ends in the red zone frequently this season, as the position has received a massive 42.4% of all of Mahomes’ red zone targets.
The Raiders have allowed 21 catches and 2 TDs to TEs this year, and haven’t played any TEs close to Kelce’s caliber. With the game flow I’m expecting (and have bet on with the rest of the legs in this parlay), I expect Kelce to have a big night, see plenty of targets, and have a good shot at scoring a TD.
Total Parlay Odds: +750
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