Same Game Parlay Picks: Super Bowl LVII Best Longshot Bets (2023)
While playing safe parlays can be more sustainable in the long run, the Super Bowl is a perfect chance to throw out a long-shot play. In a game that should be close and high-scoring, there’s plenty of opportunity for players to post big stat lines.
To get some action in on a longshot play, I’ll be rolling with this three-leg parlay offered on DraftKings.
Recent Record: 0-2, -2u
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Best Super Bowl LVII Longshot Same Game Parlay
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Leg 1: Eagles -2.5 (-105)
After their dominant performances in the postseason so far, the Eagles are rightfully favored over Kansas City. They have better players along the offensive and defensive lines, a superior secondary and better offensive weapons. While Jalen Hurts isn’t quite Patrick Mahomes, he’s excelled in the Eagles system and belongs on the shortlist for league MVP. Kansas City, on the other hand, has two one-score wins this postseason – albeit over solid competition in Jacksonville and Cincinnati. Mahomes has played well, but their offense has lacked some of the explosiveness they’ve had in the past, averaging 25 points per game in the playoffs.
I believe the Eagles have a superior roster and a pass defense that should be able to contain Mahomes. Their pass rush should cause issues if Mahomes’ ankle is still less than 100%. Their aggressive play-calling and exceptional run game will cause trouble for the Kansas City defense when they’re on offense. A big reason why the Chiefs were so effective in stopping the Bengals last week was their pass rush and how it matched up with the Cincinnati offensive line. This matchup will be much tougher, as the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
It should be a close game, but I think Philadelphia will take home a title on Sunday. I’ll take the extra point from -1.5 to -2.5 to boost the odds on this parlay – a precise two-point margin is unlikely, and Philly should win by at least three.
Leg 2: Marquez Valdes-Scantling 60+ Receiving Yards (+260)
Outside of Travis Kelce, no Chiefs player has a yardage prop over 38.5. If this game follows the normal Kansas City model on offense, there’s likely to be one player other than Kelce who posts a big game in the Chiefs’ passing game. I’ll put my money on Marquez Valdes-Scantling to emerge as the top threat of the Chiefs’ WR group on Sunday. Valdes-Scantling posted a huge stat line last week, putting up six catches on eight targets for 116 yards against the Bengals.
With Juju Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman all doubtful or questionable coming into the game, it’s hard to see any of them posting a huge stat line. I expect Mahomes to throw often and put up big yardage on Sunday. Valdes-Scantling is in a prime position to be the main beneficiary outside of Kelce. MVS’ big-play ability also helps this yardage prop, as he could get a big portion of this total on one play.
Leg 3: Kenneth Gainwell 35+ Rushing Yards (+400)
Given that Kenneth Gainwell has topped 35 rushing yards in each of his last three games, adding this leg at +400 is great value. While the Eagles’ last few games have been a bit out of the ordinary – starters resting in Week 18 followed by two huge blowouts – Gainwell has been seeing the field plenty and getting solid volume. He posted 160 yards on 26 carries in the Eagles’ two playoff games so far.
The Chiefs allow 4.4 yards per carry – roughly league average – and Gainwell averages over 5 yards per carry. If he can get six or seven attempts out of the backfield, it should be enough volume for him to crack 35 yards. I expect the Eagles to lean on their dominant run game to keep Mahomes off the field, necessitating a diversification of backfield touches. Miles Sanders should lead the way, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Gainwell gets decent volume on Sunday.
Parlay Odds: +1500
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