San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons Odds & Game Pick (2021)
A pair of six-win teams will go at it in Colorado Springs Saturday night as the #21 ranked San Diego State Aztecs take head east to take on the Air Force Falcons.
In a game that will almost certainly have future Mountain West implications, let’s take a closer look at where the value remains as kickoff approaches.
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Details
- Opening Line: Falcons -4, O/U 41.5
- Current Line: Falcons -3.5, O/U 40
Overview
This season, the Aztec’s unbeaten record has not come without peril, as two games have needed overtime, including last week’s 19-13 win on the road San Jose State. Failing to score 28+ points for the first time this season, their defense remained stout all evening, forcing a yard differential of -105 for the squad.
Coming into this one as one of the top defenses in the entire country, their front seven is at the top as they rank #1 in the nation in rush yards allowed per game at 61.2. They also rank inside the top 10 in total yards allowed (283) and points allowed (16) per game.
For the home Falcons, they’ll be putting that rushing defense up against it this week as they bring in a unit averaging 212.8 yards per game through their first seven. Last week against Boise state, they racked up 307 on the ground to finish with a net +229 against the Broncos in their 24-17 road win.
With their only loss on the season coming against Utah State in a shootout (45-49), the Falcons pose the most significant test the Aztecs have seen this season, and thus despite being unranked and a lessor record, they come into this one as home favorites.
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Trends
- Under is 7-3 in their L10 meetings
- Away team is 4-1 ATS in L5 meetings
Bottom Line
Quite simply, this should be a fantastic game out in Colorado Springs. But, in a game that pits two strengths against one another, the question will only be which team’s best players rise to the occasion.
In the end, I look for Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun to rally his guys behind the fact they haven’t beat the Aztecs in eight straight tries, in addition to having not beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
Additionally, he’ll be trying to do so against a new starting QB for the Aztecs, as Lucas Johnson makes his first start since transferring from Georgia Tech. He replaces a QB in Jordan Brookshire, who has been benched after struggling despite the undefeated start.
Pick: Air Force -3.5
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