San Francisco 49ers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Week 14 is filled with several marquee matchups. But one of the most interesting on the slate is a conference crossover between the San Francisco 49ers and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Both the Niners and Bengals are what we’d define as “high-variance teams.†When they’re at their best, they’re awfully good. But catch them on an off day, and you get wildly different results.
Just take the last two weeks as a perfect example of their inconsistency. In Week 12, the 49ers won impressively over the Vikings. In Week 13, they lost on the road sloppily to a mediocre Seahawks team. In Week 12, Cincinnati drubbed the Pittsburgh Steelers. In Week 13, they fell into an early hole against the Chargers that they couldn’t dig out of.
So, what should we expect from these wild card teams fighting for a wild card playoff berth? Let’s break it down.
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Details
- Opening line: Cincinnati -1.5
- Current line: San Francisco -1.5
- Total: 49
Are the 49ers a sleeping giant?
While I don’t treat analytics such as DVOA as gospel, I like to compare them to my perceptions of teams. Suffice it to say, I was somewhat surprised to see San Francisco ranked 7th in overall DVOA, per FootballOutsiders.com.
San Francisco is a good team that’s once again fallen on brutal injury luck and shoddy quarterback play. But DVOA views them as a true contender in the NFC. The 49ers rank fourth in offensive DVOA and ninth in defensive DVOA. The latter statistic is what surprised me most.
San Francisco’s defense thrives against the run, where it ranks third in DVOA. The 49ers front seven also excels at the line of scrimmage, ranking fourth in adjusted line yards. The Niners can be exploited against the pass, where they rank 17th in DVOA. San Francisco’s secondary has been hit hard by injuries, and starting cornerback Emmanuel Moseley is expected to miss Sunday’s game.
The key for San Francisco’s defense will be whether they can effectively pressure Joe Burrow, who is dealing with a finger injury on his throwing hand. If San Fran can make life difficult for Burrow, it’ll make defending Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase much easier.
Offensively, San Francisco will likely be shorthanded, as both Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel haven’t practiced thus far. Fortunately, Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system pretty much calls for the next man up mentality. But Samuel’s absence for a second consecutive week could hurt.
Can Cincinnati get back on track?
On the surface, the Bengals feel like a team on the rise. And they certainly might be. But it’s fair to question Cincinnati’s validity as a playoff team.
While Cincinnati’s offense has the quarterback and playmakers to become a dominant unit, it’s still not an overly efficient one at the moment. The Bengals rank 23rd in offensive DVOA. Cincinnati’s offensive line is primarily to blame.
As we saw last week against the Chargers, the Bengals aren’t protecting Burrow well enough. He was sacked six times on Sunday and has been sacked 36 times on the season, the fourth-most in football. Until Cincinnati can protect their franchise passer better, the unit will never reach its true potential.
Defensively, Cincinnati’s defense has regressed into a league-average unit that ranks 15th in DVOA. The Bengals are pretty strong up front and rank seventh in the league in sacks. But Cincinnati’s secondary has been carved up many good quarterbacks throughout the season, most recently by Justin Herbert.
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Bottom Line
This is a tricky game to project, but I think the line movement makes sense here. Rumors are surfacing that Burrow has two injured fingers on his throwing hand, which could make a huge difference in Cincinnati’s game plan. I’m concerned that a banged up Burrow won’t be able to properly take advantage of a San Francisco secondary that’s ripe for the picking.
On the flip side, I’m expecting a bounce-back performance from Jimmy Garoppolo after he threw two picks in last week’s loss to Seattle. Not having Deebo or Mitchell will hurt, but the 49ers can patch together enough production out of Jeff Wilson and JaMycal Hasty.
It’s not a game I love, as these teams are both plenty capable of putting up a stinker, but I’d side with the line movement and lay the points with San Francisco.
Pick: 49ers -1.5, play up to -2.5
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