San Francisco 49ers vs. Tennessee Titans Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Two playoff contenders will square off in a conference crossover when the San Francisco 49ers head to Nashville for a battle with the Tennessee Titans Thursday night.
The 49ers have found their stride after a rocky start to the season, having won five out of their last six contests. Meanwhile, injuries have battered the Titans, who have lost three out of four after starting the season 8-2.
Which team can score a critical victory in the march toward the postseason? Let’s break this primetime matchup down.
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Details
- Opening line: San Francisco -2
- Current line: San Francisco -3
- Total: 44.5
49ers are figuring things out
The 49ers look to be rounding into the team we expected them to be coming into the 2021 season, and they could be one of the most dangerous wild card teams out there. The 49ers rank seventh in overall DVOA and are one of only four teams in the NFL who rank within the top 10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA.
Despite a slew of injuries on offense, San Francisco’s offense continues to be a highly efficient juggernaut. Star players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Elijah Mitchell have all missed time at various points this season. Yet, Kyle Shanahan’s offense still ranks fourth in offensive DVOA.
San Francisco’s offensive identity is certainly unique. The 49ers prioritize versatility and utilize an outside-zone running scheme. And no player is more versatile than Samuel, who has 1,088 rushing yards, 269 rushing yards, and 12 total touchdowns. He’s the engine that makes this offense run. And with Mitchell out once again, expect Samuel to get a ton of work out of the backfield.
Despite ranking fourth in passing offense DVOA, it’s clear Shanahan doesn’t fully trust his quarterback. Garoppolo is a fine quarterback when everything around him is stable. But as soon as he’s asked to do too much or faces an abundance of pressure, he melts.
Garoppolo has completed 67.4% of his passes for 3,172 yards, 18 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He’s having a perfectly fine season, but his 54.3 QBR indicates Garoppolo isn’t doing a whole lot to make the 49ers better.
San Francisco’s mission is to establish the run, get out to an early lead, and avoid chasing a deficit with Garoppolo. Against Tennessee, that strategy could work, as the Titans rank 17th in rush defense DVOA.
Defensively, San Francisco possesses a solid front seven that dominates the line of scrimmage. San Francisco ranks second in rush defense DVOA, fourth in adjusted line yards, and sixth in adjusted sack rate.
The way to beat the 49ers’ defense is through the air against a banged-up secondary. The 49ers rank 21st in pass defense DVOA. If Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill can get the ball out quickly, he could succeed against this unit.
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Regression and injuries have hit Tennessee hard
The Titans were the frontrunners to land the precious No. 1 seed in the AFC not long ago. Now, it’s not even a given they’ll win their division.
The Titans benefitted from some good fortune during their 8-2 start, winning four games by three points or fewer. However, the pendulum has swung back heavily in the other direction ever since. On Halloween, the Titans lost their anchor, Derrick Henry, to a broken foot. And star receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have also missed significant time.
The injuries have made it hard to paint a full picture for the Titans. You could argue they were always overrated, and the injury bug further exploited that. Or you could say they were a solid team that’s been lost after losing its most important player.
DVOA suggests Tennessee is not even a viable playoff team. The Titans rank 23rd in DVOA and have 5.7 estimated wins, despite sitting at 9-5 and third in the AFC standings.
While the Titans hope Henry could return for the playoffs, they should have their leading receivers back. That’s critical for Tannehill against San Francisco’s weak secondary. The question will be whether Tennessee’s offensive line can hold up against the 49ers’ front seven. Tennessee’s O-line has given up the sixth-most sacks in the league.
Tennessee’s defense is league average, which is a lot better than a year ago. The Titans rank 13th in overall defensive DVOA, 15th in pass defense DVOA, and 17th in run defense DVOA. One thing working in Tennessee’s favor is its defensive front, which ranks ninth in adjusted line yards. It should have a fighting chance in controlling the line of scrimmage against San Francisco’s powerful rushing attack.
Bottom Line
These two teams are evenly matched. Both teams prioritize the ground game and have questionable quarterback play. And while the 49ers might be the better team on paper, this feels like a sell-high opportunity on San Francisco and a good buy-low opportunity on Tennessee.
The Titans are coming off an ugly road loss to the Steelers in which they lost the turnover battle 4-0. Meanwhile, San Francisco is being identified as the team “nobody wants to see†in the postseason.
Shanahan is 8-7 ATS as a road favorite since 2017, while Mike Vrabel is 7-5 ATS as a home dog since 2018 and 12-9-1 ATS after a loss. In a game that feels dead even, I recommend taking the field goal with the more desperate home team.
The pick: Titans +3, consider buying up to +3.5
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