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Saturday NFL Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Week 16)

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Let’s dive into the Saturday NFL matchups for Week 16. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 16 Saturday football.

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Saturday Football Betting Primer

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

The Steelers have lost the 1st half in 10 of their last 11 losses. The Steelers are 4-4 as an underdog this season.

And usually, Pittsburgh takes care of bad teams. That has not been the case over the last three weeks, and the Colts boasted a 7-6 record entering last week. Indianapolis isn’t a “bad” team and beat the Steelers handily.

The Bengals at 8-6 are also not a “bad” team. The Steelers – starting Mason Rudolph with the hope his red nose can deliver a win during the Christmas season– have been a fraudulent team all season, winning games they had zero business winning.

Bengals No. 2 QB Jake Browning is following in the footsteps of a lot of plucky backup QBs we have seen this season. They start hot for a couple of games without expectations when facing favorable defensive matchups. But as more tape is revealed, defensive coordinators devise ways to stop these backup QBs from sustaining success. Browning pulled the rabbit out of his hat last week, orchestrating a comeback to win in OT. They scored 21 points in the 4th quarter. But that game shouldn’t have been close. And they didn’t cover the 3.5-point spread. They shouldn’t have won against a stronger Minnesota defense.

The Steelers’ defense isn’t the Vikings, but it’s better than the Colts/Jaguars that Browning lit up a few weeks ago. Without Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals offense could struggle.

It did so the last time these teams played in Cincy, where Browning made his first start in relief of Joe Burrow. They lost 10-16 as two-point home underdogs.

The Steelers’ offense out-gained Cincinnati by 200 yards. The Bengals were 2 for 10 on 3rd downs.  Pittsburgh ran the ball all over the Bengals, and they should be able to do it again to hide their red-nosed quarterback.

I prefer to avoid sides in this game, betting on a third-string QB. But given how bad the Bengals’ run defense is and the Steelers playing at home versus Browning…

I’ll take the Steel Curtain with 2 points at home. The Bengals defense ranks 28th on third downs and 11th in the red zone. Think Pittsburgh can do enough with a Rudolph – again backing unproven QBs with no expectations has been profitable this season – to get an ugly FG win at home. Rudolph is 5-4-1 as a starter. 6-3 ATS. Shocking, I know.

As for the total…this is my preferred action in this game.

The Steelers are 3-5 toward the under at home. 36.6 points per game on average in Pittsburgh.

10 of the Steelers’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 10-4 under MACHINES overall. 40 points are scored on average between the 2 teams. But that considers games with their starting QBs. Not the case here.

Five of the Bengals’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line. 6 of their last 9 games have hit the over. Their last 7 of 8 games have all surpassed 41.5 points. They have been riding high, but this is where the over-train regression hits.

Take the under at 38. Full disclosure I got the number early when it opened at 39.5 But I like it down to 36.5 points.

On the player props side, I LOVE the rushing props on Jaylen Warren.

The biggest mismatch is that the Bengals’ defense is horrible, and they cannot stop the run.

27th in rushing yards allowed per game and 29th in run defense DVOA.  Cincy’s defense has been horrible preventing explosive plays – 32nd in yards per play faced. Tied with the Commanders for worst in the NFL.

For the Bengals offense…the Steelers are horrible versus slot WRs. 9 of the last 10 most comparable WRs to Tyler Boyd have gone OVER their projected receiving yards against the Steelers this season. Boyd has also gone over 33.5 receiving yards in 2 of Browning’s 3 starts this season. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projections have him closer to 39 yards with Chase out of the lineup.

Joe Mixon ran 25 routes last week and was targeted thrice. He has 3-plus catches in three straight games. On the year he has 2.5 receptions in 71% of his games.

Just bet the overs on tight ends playing against the Bengals. They have allowed the most receptions per game to tight ends (6.8) this season.

I also like the over on Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop set at 44.5 yards. It’s just too low. He’s gone over that number with Mitchell Trubisky the last two weeks. And he has a ton of experience playing with Mason Rudolph. In 7 full games with Rudolph as Johnson’s QB, the Steelers WR has averaged 4 catches for 65.5 yards on 6.2 targets per game. Only once was Johnson held under 41.5 yards, going for 52-plus in the other 6 games.

My Picks

  • Steelers +2.5
  • Under 38

My Props

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills (-12.5)

The Chargers got destroyed last Thursday night by the Las Vegas Raiders, leading to the eventual firing of head coach Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco. Giff Smith has been hired as the interim head coach. Smith was previously the Chargers’ outside linebackers coach and has been with the organization since 2016.

This is a classic spot to rally the team after they fired their head coach. Teams are 1-1 straight up and 2-0 ATS after firing their head coach this season (Raiders, Panthers).

In terms of big coordinators being fired, the teams are also 2-0 ATS after firings (Bills, Steelers).

Still, it’s a scary proposition to back the Chargers led by Easton Stick in any capacity.

LAC has lost the last 9 games as +7-point dogs. 0-5 ATS as underdogs over their last five. The Chargers have also failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games. 1-5 straight up as underdogs.

The Buffalo Bills are 6-4 as a favorite this season. But Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games.

They were a mess entering Week 11 – even though their offense has been a top unit across several advanced metrics – but they righted the ship against Zach Wilson-led Jets squad. They have had big wins over the Chiefs/Cowboys.

Note that the Chargers showed last week that they won’t stop “trying” to score even down double-digits, scoring 21 points in the second half of last week ‘s game – down 42-0 at halftime.

And given the lack of overall effort on display, I’d bet Chargers players feel they have something to prove over the next 3 weeks.

The Bills’ team total is at 27.5 points (-112 DraftKings Sportsbook). I think this is the best way to bet on this game, instead of laying the 11-plus points with Buffalo playing on the West Coast. They are playing a horrible pass defense that ranks 3rd in passing yards allowed per game and passer rating faced. Just back their offense to care of business versus the worst defense in the NFL, and let the point spread take care of itself.

As for the game total.

6 of 7 Bills’ last games have gone UNDER. The Chargers? 10 of the last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Teams are combined for an 8-20 toward the under. Two overs in the last 10 games played.

If you’d rather shy away from picking sides, I’d lean toward the game going under overall at 44 points.

As for props… there is a lot that I like in this game. Will be dabbling in some SGP action with Bills-Chargers. Tis the season.

And there’s no better player to bet on than the red-hot James Cook. Cook has been fully unlocked since the team introduced Joe Brady as the OC. Over the last four games, Cook is averaging 22 fantasy points per game in half-PPR averaging 21 touches per game.

As a receiver, he has over 23.5 receiving yards in four straight games. Expect that to continue against the Chargers.

Every RB that has faced the Chargers has gone OVER their receptions prop and 9/10 have gone over their receiving yards prop. That’s because Los Angeles ranks 29th in DVOA vs RBs in the passing game. They are allowing the 2nd-most receiving yards to RBs this season (51.4).

The newfound Chargers backfield committee is why I love the bet on Austin Ekeler’s rushing attempts set at 11.5. He’s gone under in the last 4 of 5 contests.

Isaiah Spiller (37% snap count) led the team with 50 rushing yards on 16 attempts last week. Spiller also led the team in carries in the first half – 5 for 16 yards. It was much more split in the first half with the RB carries similar to Week 14.

But take the over on his receiving yards. As I pointed out in this week’s Fantasy Football Forecast, Ekeler has a 20% target share with Stick at QB.

With Keenan Allen banged up, anticipate Ekeler to continue to see heavy pass volume. Buffalo ranks 4th in receiving yards per game to RBs.

Tight end Gerald Everett (63% snap count in Week 15) had 41 yards on 8 targets (26% Target share). Donald Parham Jr. did not play, and Everett saw his high-end usage carry over from Week 14. Ran a route on 67% of the dropbacks. Mt. Everett has 12 targets from Stick over the last two weeks.

Gone over 27.5 receiving yards in four straight games. 8 of the last 10 tight ends to face Buffalo have gone OVER their receiving yards prop.

Look at the UNDERs for Quentin Johnston. It’s over folks. He had 3 total targets in a game that Keenan Allen missed entirely. Don’t be fooled by the smelliest garbage-time TD of all time. He ran the most routes and barely did anything. Again. 5 targets through two games with Stick at QB. Woof.

Dalton Kincaid had zero catches last week. But he had 3.5 receptions or more in 7 straight games before Week 15. Last week was a total outlier from a passing game perspective for the Bills. Buy the dip on all the Bills’ suppressed passing numbers after last week.

Stefon Diggs led the Bills receiving group with 48 yards (5 targets). 38% Target share. Now back-to-back weeks where Diggs has seen his Target share increase dramatically with a 31% or higher target share.

No doubt related to the use of more two TE sets with the return of Dawson Knox. Buy low on Diggs and this receiving number. Only played 46% of the snaps in a game where he was not needed. The Chargers have allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs (175 yards/game).

I am shooting for Josh Allen over than 244.5 passing yards The Chargers have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season. A QB that has faced the Chargers has gone OVER his projected passing yards in 9 of their 11 last games.

Allen is projected for 261 passing yards in the BettingPros Prizepicks Cheat Sheet.

My Picks

  • Bills over 27.5 points
  • Under 44

My Props

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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