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Saturday’s Best Bets: NBA, College Basketball, NHL & UFC 285

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No matter your sport of choice, there’s always sports betting action to be had. We’ll have you covered each and every day with our daily best bets. Here are all of our best bets across each major sport in action today.

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Today’s Best Bets

Here are today’s best NBA bets.

NBA Best Bets

NBA Same Game Parlay Picks

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks

This is the only highly anticipated matchup for tonight’s slate. The 76ers and Bucks both have 40 wins on the year and these two teams could face off deep into the playoffs this year.

Brook Lopez has been the third leading scorer on the Bucks this season. He’s added 14.7 points per game on 51% from the field. But his line is sitting at 12.5 tonight. Lopez has hit 13 or more points in four of his last five and seven of his last ten games. He’s also attempted at least four threes in his last three games and has taken at least 12 shot attempts in four of his last five games.

Hopefully, it’ll be Jrue Holiday passing the ball to Lopez. Holiday has averaged 7.2 assists per game this season. He has hit seven or more assists in four of his last five and seven of his last ten. He’s also hit this number in nearly 60% of games this season.

Lastly, it’s undeniable that both of these two teams are terrific defenses. There will be some bricks in tonight’s game. Embiid should clean that up. Embiid has earned 11 or more rebounds in four of his last five and seven of his last ten games. He’s added 10.4 rebounds per game this season but has reached 11 or more rebounds in 51% of games this year. He only had eight in Philadelphia’s loss to Dallas. There were a ton of points scored in that game. He’ll bounce back on the glass tonight.

Parlay Odds: +480

  • Jason Radowitz

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NBA Game Picks

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers

These two Eastern Conference heavyweights have met twice this season, and both games were contentious. Expect more of the same tonight.

The Bucks are the hottest team in hoops, having won an astonishing 16 straight games dating back to January 23rd. Over this same span, Milwaukee is far and away the NBA’s best team in Pts/Poss differential– but the Sixers aren’t so far behind at 6th. Philly’s been frustrating to bet on lately (1-3 ATS this past week), and we (me) didn’t have the best of luck with them in our ‘Best Bets’ article last Saturday. Still, the team continues to be highly rated despite their recent losses, and they have been the best offensive team on the road.

Milwaukee has been excellent lately and has played especially well at home this year (20-11-1 ATS, 27-5 SU). But we’re not playing the team, we’re playing the number. These two teams have a history of playing each other close, and the 76ers aren’t so far behind in the NBA’s hierarchy. Further, neither team has a glaring matchup advantage in this contest, and Sixers’ C Joel Embiid will arguably be the best player in the game tonight (see here for 538’s RAPTOR Player Ratings). Let’s take the points while we still can– back Philly to keep this game close, having an outside chance of winning outright.

Bet: 76ers +5.5 (-110)

  • Tommy Jurgens

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First Basket Scorer

Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Pistons travel to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers on Saturday. With both of these teams at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference standings, the intrigue for the game may be low. However, the intrigue on the race for the First Basket is as high as ever.

The Pistons remain one of the worst teams at scoring First Baskets in the league, doing so at under 40 percent. In previous matchups with Cleveland the last two years, they've struggled against the size of the front court. It would make sense to focus on one of Cleveland's skilled bigs, but I'm going in a different direction.

I like Donovan Mitchell to record the First Basket in this game. Detroit gives up first field goals to opposing shooting guards in over 25 percent of their games. Mitchell is more than just a regular shooting guard, as he leads the Cavaliers in scoring. He also leads them in first field goal scoring.

This is a matchup of strength versus weakness. You won't get crazy long numbers, but it's too strong of a play to pass up.

Pick: 0.25u on Donovan Mitchell (+390)

  • Jason Radowitz

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NBA Prop Bets

Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 43.5 Points/Rebounds (-104)

This is the matchup of the night, as two Eastern-Conference powerhouses face off in Milwaukee. The Bucks are absolutely on fire, winning an incredible 16 straight. This streak has moved them up from third place all the way to the top spot in the conference. The 76ers have also been one of the better teams recently and moved into the top half of the conference over the last couple of months.

There are many matchups we'll want to watch, including Antetokounmpo posting up against Joel Embiid. Embiid and Antetokounmpo are second and third respectively in the MVP race, so you know they'll be out to prove something.

Antetokounmpo has put up great numbers against Philly with 46 points and 27 rebounds in two games. That averages to about seven points lower than the prop total, so that's too high of a difference to take the over.

  • John Supowitz

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NHL Best Bets

NHL Game Picks

Minnesota Wild (+126) vs. Calgary Flames (-145) | O/U 5.5 (-108/-112)

The Wild have been great since the All-Star break going 8-1-2 over their last 11 games.

The offense has been average throughout the season, but they improved by grabbing Oskar Sundqvist, Marcus Johansson, Gustav Nyquist, and defenseman John Klingberg.

It's been the tandem of Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson that has pushed this team. They've allowed just 17 goals in those 11 games and are sixth in Expected Goals Against. It should be Gustavsson getting the start.

The Flames have been one of the more disappointing teams this year. Last season, they comfortably won the Pacific and made it to the Western Conference Semifinals, but now they’re five points behind the final Wild Card Spot.

They decided to revamp the offense in the offseason; some moves have worked, and others have not. Nazem Kadri has been a great pickup with 21 goals, but Jonathan Huberdeau is projected to have his lowest goal total since his 2016-17 season when he played only 31 games.

Both teams played a ton of extra hockey lately: Calgary has played extra hockey twice in their last four, and Minnesota has done it three times. Despite each team going in different directions, this game could go either way, but I’m confident that each defense keeping the score low and under, even at 5.5, is the way to go.

Pick: Under 5.5 (-112)

  • John Supowitz

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NHL Goal In First Ten (GIFT) Picks

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Buffalo Sabres 

The Eastern Conference is very deep with championship-caliber teams, but no one has the recent playoff experience of Tampa Bay. Their forward unit can compete with anyone, as they are eighth in Goals Percentage and have eight guys with double-digit goals.

The Lightning have been shaky all season on defense, allowing the 11th most high-danger shots. However, they can still confidently lean on Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal. He allows 2.61 goals per game and has a .917 save percentage.

The Sabres have lost back-to-back games at a bad time and are now four points behind the last playoff spot. The offense has dipped, going from the top-scoring team down to third. They can’t afford to struggle with a defense that has not played well this year, including allowing 12 goals in the last two games.

We have two top-five offenses squaring off in what should be a high-scoring showdown.

Pick: Over 0.5

  • John Supowitz

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College Basketball Best Bets

Tennessee vs. Auburn

The biggest question entering this game is whether or not Auburn can rebound from a devastating loss to rival Alabama, which it was firmly in control of. The Tigers squandered a 17-point lead with less than ten minutes remaining. For perspective on the excruciating loss, consider that the Crimson Tide had a win probability as low as 7.3%, per KenPom.

Playing Tennessee this year is akin to getting a root canal, as the Volunteers are Division I’s top-ranked defense per adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and 3-point percentage allowed (25.1%).

Auburn is not as invincible at home in “The Jungle” as in other years under Bruce Pearl. The Tigers are 3-2 in their last five at home, with the two losses by a combined 24 points to the league’s top two teams (Alabama and Texas A&M). The season-ending injury to point guard Zakai Ziegler will hurt the Volunteers going forward. Still, Tennessee becomes slightly better defensively in the short term, with Santiago Vescovi taking his place in the starting lineup. We look for Tennessee to take advantage of its size inside and pound the Tigers, who allow free throws at the SEC’s highest rate.

Tennessee has had one extra day’s rest over Auburn, having last played on Tuesday, and the Volunteers have covered four of six games when they have had the rest advantage. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 6-9 ATS at home, which has us looking the other way that they have covered two of their three games against ranked opponents this year.

Bet: Tennessee ML (+115 at DraftKings)

  • Mike Spector

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UFC 285 Best Bets

Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane

Simply put, these two guys are on two very different levels, regardless of Jones’ three-year layoff. Gane’s most likely path to victory is catching Jones and winning via KO/TKO, although Jones has an iron chin and has never been stopped inside the cage.

On the flip side, Jones could win this fight by any method. He could utilize his grappling advantage and take Gane to the ground, beating him with wrestling or even submit him.

Jones could also utilize his three-inch reach advantage to keep Gane at distance and pick his moments, which could lead to a Jones KO/TKO victory or a decision victory. There are just numerous more paths for Jones to win this fight, where, on the other hand, Gane’s chance in this scrap likely hinges on being the first one in history to knock out Jones.

Everything else that has occurred in his career (in and out of the octagon) aside, Jones will remind everyone why he is still the GOAT of MMA.

Best Bet: Jon Jones ML (-155 via DraftKings)

  • Johnny Perun

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Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategies - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.


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