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Saturday’s Best Bets: NBA, College Basketball, NHL & UFC Vegas 71

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No matter your sport of choice, there’s always sports betting action to be had. We’ll have you covered each and every day with our daily best bets. Here are all of our best bets across each major sport in action today.

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Today’s Best Bets

Here are today’s best NBA bets.

NBA Best Bets

NBA Same Game Parlay Picks

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors

  • Leg 1: Draymond Green Over 9.5 Points (-111)
  • Leg 2: Draymond Green Over 6.5 Assists (+112)
  • Leg 3: Stephen Curry Over 5.5 Rebounds (+112)

Klay Thompson and Giannis Antetkounmpo are game-time decisions tonight. Both likely end up playing, but I won’t be adding either player in this parlay, just in case.

Green has been a bit more aggressive lately for the Warriors. He’s scored at least 11 points in four of five games in March. He’s also coming off a 16-point performance against the Grizzlies, adding five field goals on nine attempts.

Green has also averaged 6.2 assists per game in March. He’s hit at least seven assists in his last two games and has reached seven in 70% of his last 20 games. You take the risk of Green getting into a scuffle and ejected. But if he can play his usual 30 minutes a game, I like him to fill up the box score tonight.

Meanwhile, Curry has earned 6.2 rebounds per game this season. He’s played at least 34 minutes in his last two games. With those minutes, he’s brought down 13 rebounds, with at least six in each game. Milwaukee certainly isn’t the best offense in the NBA. They’ll miss shots and give Curry chances to bring down enough boards.

Parlay Odds: +617

  • Jason Radowitz

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NBA Game Picks

Los Angeles Clippers vs. New York Knicks

This line was initially set at Clippers -5 (-110) / -4.5 (-115), but quickly reacted to the news that G Jalen Brunson would miss the game, shifting a point or so towards Los Angeles. And, while Brunson’s absence is significant (the Knicks highest rated player per 538), the Knicks have the depth necessary to make up for it– Namely, backup PG Immanuel Quickley.

Quickley has thrived in his role off the bench (and may very well win Sixth Man of the Year), but has also exhibited excellence when thrust into a starting role. Look no further than this past Sunday, as Quickly’s prolific performance vaulted the Knicks past Boston in Double-OT. Quickley’s presence on the floor should temper the absence of Brunson, as none of Los Angeles’ guards are above average defenders– perhaps the market has overreacted to Brunson being out.

Further, I’m not so convinced that Los Angeles has found their footing. They’ve won two in a row, but gave their best effort to blow the game vs Memphis, and a home win vs the Raptors is not so impressive. The team still exhibits streaks of poor play, and rate 23rd in the NBA in Pts/Poss since the All-Star Break (Knicks rate 3rd, for context).

Bet: Knicks +5 (-110)

  • Tommy Jurgens

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First Basket Scorer

Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks

The Celtics and Hawks played in one game earlier this year. The Celtics won the tip, but the Hawks scored first. The Celtics were unlucky that time. But they’ve got a much higher probability of scoring first tonight.

Boston has won the tip in 51% of games and has attempted the first shot in 58% of games. Meanwhile, the Hawks have only won the tip 40% of the time and have attempted the first shot in 45% of games.

The Celtics aren’t always the hottest team to start games. But I’d expect the Celtics to play slightly looser early at home.

Jayson Tatum has nine first shots and nine first baskets for the Celtics this season. He also leads the team’s first baskets, with Jaylen Brown attempting more but not making more.

Back Tatum to score first in this one.

Bet: Jayson Tatum (+500) 

  • Jason Radowitz

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NBA Prop Bets

Zach LaVine OVER 27.5 Points (-115)

The Bulls are struggling at the worse time. They've lost nine of their last 13, and now are sitting a half-game out of the final playoff spot. This is a defensive-minded team, but in their previous two losses, they've allowed over 120 in each, and the below-average offense cannot contribute.

They get a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockets, who are 29th in adjusted defensive rankings. LaVine has been the Bulls' best offensive player lately by leading the team in scoring in nine of their last 12, and one of those nine has gone over 27 in six.

  • John Supowitz

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NHL Best Bets

NHL Game Picks

Detroit Red Wings (+275) vs. Boston Bruins (-330) | O/U 6.5 (+100/-120)

The Bruins had their ten-game winning streak snapped the other night against the Oilers. Still, this team is on pace to have the most wins and points in NHL history. They didn't have Linus Ullmark in that loss, so he'll be ready for tonight.

A couple of weeks ago, the Red Wings surged and were in playoff contention by winning six of eight. That quickly went away, and now come in, losing six of their last seven.

The offense had begun to play well, and Dylan Larkin was on a hot streak, but he has struggled with four points in his last nine games.

This is the first game of a home-home series, and they should easily take the first game in Garden.

Pick: Bruins -1.5 (-135)

  • John Supowitz

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NHL Player Prop Bet Picks

Brock Nelson UNDER 2.5 Shots On Goals (-120)

The Islanders won an important game on Thursday against the Penguins, giving them a two-point lead for the first wild card spot. They are getting hot at the right time, winning six of their last eight.

Tonight they get a matchup against the Capitals. Although Washington’s offense is not playing well, the defense has been. The Isles are winning despite Nelson struggling. He's gone under two shots in seven straight and fell short again tonight.

  • John Supowitz

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College Basketball Best Bets

Missouri vs. Alabama

Alabama’s offensive and defensive balance is a huge reason it is on a short list of national championship contenders. The Crimson Tide are one of four teams in the country that rank in the top 19 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Alabama’s defense has been especially imposing, with the third-best three-point shooting percentage and D-I’s best two-point shooting percentage allowed. And despite all that, we feel Missouri’s projected team total will be too low in this game.

Alabama held Missouri to 64 points in their first meeting, which was tied for the Tigers’ lowest-scoring output of the season at the time. Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats had been 0-2 in trips to Columbia before that victory and pushed all the right buttons to thwart Missouri’s high-powered offense. However, the Tigers were missing leading scorer Kobe Brown (15.9 points per game, 20.5 in the last two). And without his inside presence, the team had no threat inside the arc and settled for 28 3-point attempts, of which they made three. We expect more inside-outside balance to make all the difference offensively for Missouri. In addition, its SEC-leading 3-point percentage (35.0%) suggests they are due for significant positive regression from the 10.7% it shot from beyond the arc in the first meeting.

We do not expect Missouri to pull an outright upset, given it is 0-10 SU in its last five games against AP-top five opponents. However, with a spread of -9 and an O/U of 157, Missouri has an implied team total of 74 points, and that is where we are comfortable playing this number when that prop becomes available at DraftKings.

Bet: Missouri Team Total Over 74 (OFF at DraftKings)

  • Mike Spector

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UFC Vegas 71

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili

In addition to the fight history narrative, Yan also has a statistical edge, as evidenced by his advantages in terms of knockouts (8x), considerable striking, and takedown accuracy. Even though he ranks lower than average in submissions and takedowns, his takedown defense of 90% places him among the top competitors in the division.

I like for Yan to grind this one out in what will likely be an ugly decision.

Best Bet: Petr Yan (-220 via DraftKings)

  • Johnny Perun

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