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SEC Tournament Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (3/15)

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Well, we finally made it to what felt inevitable - Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Alabama in the SEC conference tournament semi-finals. But it hasn't been a boring tournament whatsoever. Oklahoma and Texas both helped their tournament resumes while Kentucky and Missouri fought hard but fell to the elites in the conference.

As the NCAA Tournament currently projects, 13 different SEC teams are in the tournament, ranking the conference as one of the best in the KenPom era. Even No. 16 seed South Carolina got some heralded wins and might've been a tournament team if it was in the ACC.

But the focus is on the top with the remaining squads. Not only are these top SEC teams but all four rank in the top six nationally, per KenPom. There's a decent chance your National Champion is from today’s final four SEC teams. Johni Broome is battling with Cooper Flagg for the John R. Wooden Award and Auburn is fighting with Duke for title favorites but there is no question that the SEC is the best conference this year.

Now, we get to watch these teams play for an SEC crown before we kick off March Madness. Let's get to the previews.

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Saturday’s Best SEC Tournament College Basketball Picks

Tennessee vs. Auburn

Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Auburn -4.0 | Total: 139.5

After both teams handled business in the first round, Auburn takes on Tennessee for a shot at the SEC championship game on Sunday afternoon. This will be a rematch of their January 25th affair, where Auburn snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with a 54-51 victory.

Both teams shot sub-20% from the perimeter in that game. Auburn only managed 0.84 points per possession, going 15-of-39 (38.5%) from inside the arc, which was their least efficient game of the season by far. 

What stands out in this game is how it's arguably the best offense against arguably the best defense in the league. Tennessee has allowed the lowest opponent three-point and near-proximity shooting percentages while having the best defense at stopping second-chance conversion percentage. But there is a bit of luck to that number, ranking 27th in ShotQuality's adjusted defense. They also still allow a high field goal rate without forcing many turnovers. 

And Auburn will bring the offense. There isn't much bad you can say about this offense. They can shoot the lights out anywhere on the court, take care of the ball, which gives them the 13th-highest field goal rate, and have one of the clear favorites for the John R. Wooden Award. Even when Broome is limited, the team still steps up, beating Kentucky 94-78 with Broome only tallying nine points.

The only question I have here is effort. The Tigers have already locked up the No. 1 overall seed. It is interesting to see if Auburn will give it their all when an extra day of rest is an option for the NCAA Tournament. Rick Barnes and his squad at Tennessee likely will earn the effort flag here given their feisty defense and team culture.

Still, I'm going to assume everyone is giving 100% on the court until proven otherwise. I especially like Auburn here because if Tennessee gets down, they don't have the pure speed-it-up and score ability to mount a comeback. And if they are down late, Auburn has been in plenty of tough games with solid free-throw shooters, and the Vols only really have one consistent deep threat in Chaz Lanier. I expect the lack of depth for Tennessee to show its ugly head here late into the game and for Auburn to take this down. 

Prediction: Auburn 73, Tennessee 67
Best Bet: Auburn -3.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Alabama vs. Florida

Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Florida -3.5 | Total: 174.5

The other game of the evening involves two teams who led all 40 minutes of their opening matchups and didn't even really seem to break a sweat. This is the second matchup of the year between these two squads after Florida handled business in Tuscaloosa with a 99-94 win earlier this month. 

I wouldn't be surprised if more of the same happened today. Both teams rank in the top 50 in pace of play with each squad getting over 15% of their points from fastbreak looks. Each team will also grab a haul of offensive boards and capitalize on second looks. Even with both teams' perimeter defense ranking in the top 25, there are going to be a lot of chances to score for both squads.

Still, Florida matches up better. Nate Oats' squad is analytically sound but they rarely force turnovers, foul at a relatively high clip, and have worse defensive rebounding numbers against a better offensive rebounding team. The pure field goal attempt rate heavily favors Florida and they will take advantage of Alabama's offense that funnels opponents inside the arc. 

I know it's not the most exciting analysis, but I'm just going to trust Florida’s recent play as a top-three team nationally over their last 10 games and ride with another favorite. Alabama's defensive possession length ranks 11th highest, so I expect Florida to win in the transition battle and on the glass to earn themselves a spot at the SEC crown.

Prediction: Florida 93, Alabama, 86
Best Bet: Florida -3.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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