Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Odds & Game Pick (2021)

The Alabama Crimson Tide are 3-0 on the season thanks to a tight 31-29 victory over the Florida Gators on the road. We’re used to seeing dominance out of Alabama, but maybe last Saturday proved Alabama is beatable after all. If they are beatable, it likely won’t come against their next opponent in Southern Miss. Southern Miss is coming into this game 1-2 with their lone win against Grambling. That’s not an impressive win at all, and at this point, the Golden Eagles will have a hard time scoring against the number one team in the nation if they can’t even score double digits against South Alabama and Troy.

If you like to bet lopsided matchups, we’ll break it down for you below.

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Details

• Opening Line: Alabama -44.5, O/U 57.5
• Current Line: Alabama -45, O/U 57.5
• Last meeting: September 21, 2019, Alabama 49, Southern Miss 7

Overview 

Southern Miss is 1-2, and in their two losses, they’ve combined for just 16 points. The Golden Eagles’ one win came against Grambling, who have been abysmal this season and in years past. Winning that game means nothing.

The Southern Miss offense features Frank Gore Jr., who has 55 carries for 274 yards and one touchdown. The running game has been the only bright spot for this team. The offensive line can’t protect for their lives, and starting quarterback Trey Lowe is now sidelined with a foot injury. Lowe is also expected to miss the game against Alabama which means freshman Ty Keyes will get his second start of the season.

His first start was awful, throwing for 157 yards with two interceptions against Troy. I’d be shocked if this offense scored points with Keyes under center. Maybe Gore Jr. breaks a tackle, but it’s going to be very difficult against Alabama.

The Crimson Tide haven’t been the best offense this season behind an offensive line that can play much better. Still, they’ve got one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Bryce Young, and he’s slinging the ball around with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions through three games.

The defense has held opponents to just 314 yards per game, along with just 180.7 yards in the air. The coverage and pass rush could be better, but against Southern Miss, it will be. Alabama will take each day, game-by-game. They’re not playing SEC competition or anything close to it here. The Crimson Tide have all the momentum after winning that game against Florida, and it’ll show Saturday night.

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Trends 

• Crimson Tide are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 8-0 in Golden Eagles last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Bottom Line 

Southern Miss is going to Tuscaloosa, Alabama with a freshman quarterback making his second start of the season. Keyes couldn’t even perform against Troy and threw two interceptions. That was the impact he made. He threw to the other team twice, and that was about it. Alabama will more than likely shut down this Southern Miss offense. With the spread sitting at -45, I hate to say it, but if you’re looking to bet this game, you should lay the points. This has all the feelings of a 55-3 type of game. It’s still hard to bet the over knowing Southern Miss won’t score at all. Maybe the Crimson Tide team total is a play. Either way, I’ll stick to Alabama covering.

Pick: Alabama -45 (-110)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.