If you're new to sports betting, you might have heard about betting on "totals" or "over/unders" and wondered what it's all about. In simple terms, totals are a way to wager on the combined score of both teams, rather than picking a winner. This guide will walk you through the basics, and we'll even throw in some college basketball and March Madness examples to keep things interesting! Here is a look at totals and advice for overs and unders in sports betting.
What Are Totals & Over/Unders?
In sports betting, a total (or over/under) is a bet on whether the total number of points scored in a game will be over or under a number set by the sportsbook. Instead of betting on which team wins, you're predicting if the combined score will be high or low. This makes betting a little less about picking winners and more about analyzing how the game will play out.
How Totals & Over/Unders Work
Let's break it down with a simple example:
- Example Scenario: Suppose a college basketball game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the Arizona Wildcats has a total set at 135 points.
- Betting the Over: If you believe that the two teams will score more than 135 points combined, you'd bet the "over."
- Betting the Under: If you expect that the game will be more defensive, keeping the total below 135 points, you'd bet the "under."
The bet doesn't require you to know the exact final score; you just need to know if the total will cross the set number.
Totals in College Basketball & March Madness
College basketball is known for its fast pace and dynamic scoring, making totals betting particularly appealing. Here's how you might see it play out:
College Basketball Example
During March Madness, the intensity ramps up. Picture a matchup between a powerhouse like the Duke Blue Devils and a scrappy underdog during the tournament. The total might be set at 130 points due to the unpredictability of the game. Even if one team is favored to win, the fast-break style and potential for upsets make betting on totals a fun option:
- Over Bet: If you expect a high-scoring game full of fast breaks and offensive fireworks, betting the over could be the way to go.
- Under Bet: On the other hand, if you believe that the underdog will hold its own defensively and keep the score tight, the under bet might be your pick.
Tips for Betting Totals
- Do Your Homework: Look into team stats, recent scoring trends, pace of play, and defensive records. Knowing how teams typically score (or limit scoring) can give you a clue about whether to bet over or under.
- Consider Game Context: Factors like venue, player injuries, and coaching strategy can all impact how many points are scored. For instance, a key injury to a leading scorer might lower the expected total.
- Watch the Trends: In college basketball, some teams are known for high-scoring games, while others are more defense-oriented. March Madness can throw surprises into the mix, so keep an eye on how teams perform under pressure.
Pace-of-Play Influences
Trend:
Teams that play fast tend to push the total score higher, while those with a slower tempo may keep the scores down.
Example:
If you see a matchup between a high-tempo team like a fast-scoring mid-major and a team known for a more methodical, defensive style, the totals can be mispriced. For instance, if a fast-paced team is playing a slower, defensively strong opponent during the regular season, and the line is set high based on offensive averages, there might be value in the under if you expect the slower pace to dominate.
Defensive Efficiency and Tournament Intensity
Trend:
In March Madness, teams often tighten up on defense due to the pressure of the tournament. Even if their season averages suggest higher scoring, the increased defensive focus can drive the totals down.
Example:
A high-seeded team entering the NCAA Tournament might have posted over 140 points per game during the season. However, in the tournament, with every possession carrying more weight, you might see the game trending under if the opponent also ramps up defensively. This defensive intensity trend has been seen in several March Madness matchups where the expected high totals turn into lower-scoring, tight contests.
Public Overreaction and Regression to the Mean
Trend:
Public sentiment can sometimes drive the total line too high after a series of high-scoring games. The market may overestimate a team’s offensive momentum, leaving value on the table for an under bet when teams eventually regress to their average scoring output.
Example:
Imagine a team that has been on a scoring spree during a stretch of games. The sportsbooks might set the over/under significantly higher based on recent performance. However, if that team is scheduled to face a top-ranked defensive squad, historical trends suggest they might revert to their normal scoring level-making the under a potentially profitable pick.
Final Thoughts
Betting on totals or over/unders is a great way to enjoy sports betting without the pressure of picking the outright winner. It's especially fun in college basketball and during March Madness, where the fast pace and unpredictability of the games can lead to some high-scoring (or low-scoring) surprises.
By understanding the basics of totals betting and keeping these tips in mind, you can make more informed decisions and add an extra layer of excitement to every game. Enjoy the thrill, do your research, and happy betting!
