We saw the conclusion to the Eastern Conference Finals last night. Will the Western Conference follow suit? Edmonton has won the last two and can end it tonight on home ice, or will Dallas keep it going for a winner-take-all Game 7?
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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Stars (+114) at Edmonton Oilers (-135) | O/U 5.5 (-105/-115)
This is not the same Oilers team we've seen over the last two games from earlier in the series. You've seen them grab multiple-goal leads in both games, and you were wondering when they would let the Stars back in it, but it hasn't happened, and now they're one win away from the Stanley Cup Finals. They've been more aggressive in every zone; they're shooting the puck at Dallas' net instead of setting up shots, attacking the puck in the neutral zone, and playing close to the Stars in their own zone. Connor McDavid has been leading this offense, and instead of trying to pass it for an assist, he's tossing it to the net because he’s confident that either Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, or Evan Bouchard will be there to pick up the rebound, and it's working because he has 16 shots on goal and five assists in the last three games.
This has left Dallas trying to adjust, and they haven't been able to, as the offense has sputtered over the last two games. The best way to get to Edmonton's Stuart Skinner is to attack the net and make him have to save multiple shots, but that hasn't been the case over the last two games, and the Stars have just 42 shots on goal and a 1.97 expected goal rate. It's tough when they can't dominate the puck possession and have just a 39.7% offensive zone possession rate compared to Edmonton's 42.3%.
As long as Edmonton continues this game plan of playing aggressive and dominating puck possession, they should end this series tonight.
Pick: Oilers Moneyline (-135)
