Steelers vs. Panthers: NFL Week 15 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that - as of writing - I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
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Steelers at Panthers: NFL Week 15 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets (2022)
Check out our Steelers at Panthers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: CBS
Steelers at Panthers: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 14.
- Spread: Steelers +3
- Betting Percentages: Steelers - 43% bets, 65% money
Steelers at Panthers: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Steelers ATS: 6-6-1 (-3.3% ROI)
- Panthers ATS: 7-6 (3.5% ROI)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Notable Trends
- HC Mike Tomlin: 49-27-3 ATS (25.3% ROI) as underdog
- QB Mitchell Trubisky: 15-11-2 ATS (11.2% ROI) as underdog
Carolina Panthers: Notable Trends
- QB Sam Darnold: 20-30-1 ATS (17.7% ROI for faders) for career
- QB Sam Darnold: 4-8 ATS (30.3 % ROI for faders) as favorite
Steelers at Panthers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Steelers Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.038 | 10 | -0.011 | 11 | 1 |
| Total SR | 44.2% | 19 | 44.1% | 13 | -6 |
| Total DVOA | -3.7% | 20 | 2.5% | 19 | -1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.085 | 11 | 0.027 | 11 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 46.3% | 13 | 45.0% | 11 | -2 |
| Pass DVOA | -4.3% | 16 | -3.1% | 19 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.9% | 16 | 5.8% | 25 | 9 |
| Rush EPA | -0.036 | 12 | -0.065 | 15 | 3 |
| Rush SR | 41.0% | 18 | 42.9% | 23 | 5 |
| Rush DVOA | -5.6% | 21 | 4.4% | 20 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.47 | 12 | 4.26 | 15 | 3 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 27 | 5.3 | 11 | -16 |
| Points per Game | 17.5 | 27 | 22.3 | 13 | -14 |
Panthers Offense vs. Steelers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.013 | 21 | 0.038 | 21 | 0 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 20 | 44.1% | 13 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | -16.1% | 29 | -1.8% | 13 | -16 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.028 | 22 | 0.09 | 22 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 45.1% | 21 | 46.6% | 18 | -3 |
| Pass DVOA | -1.9% | 13 | -9.8% | 11 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.9% | 19 | 5.8% | 24 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.076 | 19 | -0.050 | 20 | 1 |
| Rush SR | 41.8% | 11 | 40.0% | 12 | 1 |
| Rush DVOA | -13.4% | 28 | 3.2% | 18 | -10 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.75 | 5 | 4.42 | 19 | 14 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 23 | 5.7 | 20 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 20 | 24 | 22.5 | 14 | -10 |
Steelers at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 240 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Mitchell Trubisky
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.8 | 27 |
Career: Mitchell Trubisky
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -20.8
2022: Sam Darnold
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.7 | 36 |
Career: Sam Darnold
- AY/A: 5.8
- QB Elo per Game: -75.9
Key Takeaway: Buy Low on the Steelers, Sell High on the Panthers
The Panthers are coming off a great 30-24 road underdog win against the Seahawks — but 2021 starter-turned-2022 backup-turned-starter Sam Darnold had a 5.8 AY/A in that game on just 24 pass attempts, so it’s not as if he’s the reason they won.
And his career mark is also 5.8 AY/A. He’s still the same-ol’ Sam.
Darnold should almost never be a favorite, and the Panthers are now favorites. As such, they’re 0-3 ATS this year.
Yeah, they’re 6-2 ATS under interim HC Steve Wilks, but after last week I believe the market has now caught up to the Panthers, who have never been favored under Wilks. In his only two games as a favorite (with the 2018 Cardinals), Wilks was 0-2 ATS and failed to cover the spread by a margin of -13.25 points.
This is a prime spot to sell high on the Panthers — and also to buy low on the Steelers, who last week suffered a tough 16-14 loss as home favorites against the Ravens.
Rookie QB Kenny Pickett (concussion) seems likely to miss this week for the Steelers, but backup QB Mitchell Trubisky is a veteran, and he’s better than Darnold despite his faults.
The Steelers have the edge at quarterback and coach, and the Panthers have a mediocre home-field advantage.
If you give me +3 with the Steelers against a bad team, I’ll take it.
Best Line: Steelers +3 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Steelers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Steelers +0.5
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