Steelers vs. Ravens: NFL Sunday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 17)

The NFL caps its penultimate week of the regular season with a slugfest. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will renew their rivalry in primetime.

The 7-8 Steelers are trying to keep their minuscule playoff hopes alive, but are also looking to preserve an impressive streak: 18 consecutive winning seasons. Meanwhile, Baltimore needs a win or a Bengals loss earlier in the day to stay alive in the race for the AFC North.

These two teams first squared off in Week 14, with Baltimore winning 16-14 at Acrisure Stadium courtesy of three interceptions from Steelers QB Mitchell Trubisky. Kenny Pickett will be back under center for the rematch after exiting the first meeting with a concussion. For Baltimore, Tyler Huntley will get the start again as Lamar Jackson continues to recover from injury.

Should we expect a similar script to the game these teams played just a few weeks ago? Let’s break down this AFC North showdown.

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Steelers vs. Ravens: NFL Sunday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 17)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5), Total 35

Steelers Must Stifle Baltimore Ground Game

Pittsburgh must make some serious adjustments within the front seven to earn a better result in this primetime rematch. The Steelers rank sixth in rush defense DVOA on the season. However, they served up 215 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry against Baltimore at home earlier in December. With Huntley under center, I’d expect Pittsburgh to sell out to stop the backfield tandem of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.

But despite a horrible performance against the run, Pittsburgh probably deserved better in Week 14. Pittsburgh out-gained Baltimore 329-309 and averaged 6.2 yards per play to Baltimore’s 5.1 yards per play.

The problem was Pittsburgh couldn’t get out of their own way. All three of Trubisky’s picks came in Baltimore territory, and the Steelers had a 40-yard field goal blocked in the fourth quarter.

The good news is the wild and wacky Trubisky won’t be seeing the field Sunday night, barring injury. Instead, the rookie Pickett will be under center and seeking revenge. Pickett hasn’t been spectacular in his debut season, but he’s certainly held his own. On Christmas Eve against the Raiders, Pickett went 26-of-39 for 244 yards, an interception and the game-winning TD pass to George Pickens late in the fourth quarter.

The jury is still clearly out on Pickett, but it seems as if he has a pretty solid floor as a game manager. While beating the Raiders is an accomplishment, he’ll be facing the eighth-ranked defense according to DVOA this weekend.

Ravens Keep Finding Ways To Win With Limited Offense

The Ravens’ offense is a bit of a disaster. They’ve scored just 46 points in their last four games yet are somehow 3-1. Part of that is thanks to an easy schedule (Denver, @Pittsburgh, @Cleveland, Atlanta). But Baltimore’s defense deserves plenty of credit.

The Ravens’ defense is a nasty unit that’s strong against the run and pass. It starts in the trenches, where the Ravens rank top 10 in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. In other words, the Ravens can stuff the run and generate plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Baltimore’s secondary will be somewhat shorthanded Sunday night as cornerback Marcus Peters has been ruled out with a calf injury.

Baltimore’s offense still ranks 9th in DVOA, but the on-field product isn’t as pretty as the analytics think. Baltimore has managed to win 10 games without a passing game, and that’s even when Jackson was healthy.

Huntley has thrown for 115, 138 and 88 yards in his last three outings. Outside of Mark Andrews (who might be playing injured), Baltimore’s best receiver is DeMarcus Robinson, who has 45 receptions for 425 yards. The injury to Rashod Bateman didn’t help, but Baltimore’s front office has failed miserably to acquire pass-catching talent. And it could be this team’s fatal flaw come playoff time.

The expectation is the Ravens will win with a dominant ground game and defense once Jackson returns. Dobbins has looked pretty good since returning from injury several weeks ago and is somehow the team’s second-leading rusher despite playing just seven games. Behind him is the plodding, powerful Edwards, who is reliable in short-distance and goal-line situations.

Against Pittsburgh, the game plan will likely be similar to the Week 14 contest. Pound the rock, stay ahead of the chains and do just enough while letting the defense handle the heavy lifting.

Game Prediction and Best Bet

This game has almost become like the annual Army-Navy game. Whenever these two teams do battle, just bet the under. That’s especially true considering how limited Huntley has been. Pickett started the Week 14 contest but barely played after getting hurt, which will make things even more difficult in a surely hostile M&T Bank Stadium.

As for the side, I’d lean with the underdog Steelers considering they should’ve beaten Baltimore a few weeks ago. But this line feels pretty dead on to me. The last five meetings between these teams have been decided by five points or fewer.

Taking a total this low is always scary, as all it takes is one fluky play for this game to go over. But with no real strong play, I’ll take a chance on another low-scoring affair.

The Pick: Lean Under 35

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