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Sunday NFL Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Week 16 (Christmas Eve)

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Tis the season! Let’s dive into the Christmas Eve Sunday NFL matchups for Week 16. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 16 Sunday football.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

NFL Sunday Betting Primer: Week 16 (Christmas Eve)

Before we leap into this week’s games, let’s rewind to the highlights and lowlights of Week 15’s matchups. Note we have hit on 71% of our NFL totals picks since Week 11 (41-17). When in doubt, bet the game total!

Week 15

  • Spread: 6-7-1
  • Totals: 10-4
  • Player Props: 26-19

Overall: 42-30 (58%)

2023 season

  • Spread: 82-94 (47%)
  • Totals: 117-78 (60%)
  • Player Props: 254-223 (53%)
  • ML: 6-4

Overall: 454-419 (52%)

As always, at the top, I’ll feature my top bets, categorized into underdogs, favorites, and Over/Unders. This quick-hitting guide is your shortcut to accessing my best plays. Keep an eye out for my favorite player props, released in a separate article every Saturday. Let’s dive into the Sunday frenzy of NFL Week 16!

Top Favorites:

  • Dolphins -1.5
  • Packers -4
  • Bears -4

Top Underdogs:

  • Titans +3.5
  • Colts +3.5
  • Vikings +3

Top Totals:

  • ATL/IND over 44.5
  • TEN/SEA under 41.5
  • CHI/ARI under 43
  • GB/CAR under 37.5
  • WAS/NYJ under 37
  • NE/DEN under 35.5

Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

Three words folks. Titans. At. Home. Fade them on the road (which should have worked 2 weeks ago) but back at that home. Especially as +3.5 underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks coming off a short week. The Seahawks have lost each of their last five road games.

The Titans have covered the spread in four of their last 6 games at Nissan Stadium. They are 4-2 straight up in the Music City. Note that their 2 failed covers have come in an OT losses to the division rival Colts/Texans.

The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last seven games after coming off overtime. Regardless, they are a top-12 scoring offense at home this season. And that shouldn’t change with Ryan Tannehill starting over Will Levis (sprained ankle).

I understand the Titans’ pass defense isn’t good, so Geno Smith should be able to take advantage with his plethora of weapons. But considering the Titans also have the No. 1 red-zone defense, I lean under with more yards than points piling up in this matchup. Seattle ranks 26th in red zone offense.

Titans’ games have averaged 42 points scored at home this season. 3-3 O/U.

With the total sitting at 42, it’s an under for me. Five of the Seahawks’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line

For props…

Ride the Big Dog, Derrick Henry, for another week at home. Henry is NOTORIOUS for steamrolling defenses in early December. Over 5 career yards per carry in December for Henry – the highest mark in any month. He has 75-plus rushing yards in all but one of the Titans’ home games this season. He also has 16-plus carries in all but one home game played this season.

The Seahawks defense has allowed 68-plus rushing yards to the last 5 RBs they have faced this season.

Seattle ranks 17th in DVOA versus tight ends, allowing 52 receiving yards per game to the position this season. Keep an eye out for Chigoziem Okonkwo’s props.

Also, take the overs on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Titans are the 8th best matchup for slot WRs. JSN has 40-plus yards in 6 of his last 7 games played this season.

My Picks:

  • Under 41.5
  • Titans +3.5

My Props:

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts 

The betting line opened with the Colts as -1.5 road favorites but it has flipped back to Atlanta after it was announced that Taylor Heinicke would start after Desmond Ridder’s Week 15 implosion versus the Panthers. They had last week in the bag, but Ridder blew it with a backbreaking red-zone INT. I knew that Atlanta failing to cover would come down to Ridder, but I figured the Falcons would hide him enough to make that not happen. I was wrong.

But as we have said in many versions of the BP Primer, Atlanta is not a team you want to lay points with on the road or when they are a favorite. So even though I liked the Dirty Birds last week, the results are necessarily shocking.

The Falcons are 4-2 at home versus 2-5 on the road. Away from Atlanta, they have averaged fewer than 15 points per game. They also failed to cover the spread as favorites in 8 of their last 9 games. 20% ATS as a favorite this season. Woof.

At home, the Falcons are averaging 45 points scored. They are also 4-6 in one-score games.

The Colts have hit four straight overs, winning 5 of their last 6. They have also been impressive on the road, boasting a 5-2 record.

The Colts have been one of the few “over” machines this season, boasting an impressive 10-4 record toward the over. Atlanta has the No. 2 red-zone defense and ranks 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate faced. The Colts are not particularly great on 3rd downs or in the red zone.

Yet, Indy has pushed unthinkable anemic offenses like the Titans/Steelers to overs. Don’t think they cannot also push the Falcons – who score more points at home – to an over in the dome. Atlanta is 10-4 toward the under this season. But 3 of their overs have happened at home.

I love the over in this game.

As for sides, it was Indy for me early in the week. I bet them at -1.5. After all, they are 100% ATS as a favorite. 5-0 straight up and ATS as favorites in 2023.

But as I mentioned earlier, after they opened as favorites, the lines flipped. I fell for this trap the last time this happened when the Colts faced the Bengals. I got burned with Cincy dominating that game as a favorite, after opening as an underdog.

The one thing that’s different here is that the Falcons have been so bad as a favorite. 20% ATS.

And the coaching advantage from Arthur Smith to Shane Steichen is night and day. If Steichen had the Falcons personnel, they’d be a top-10 unit.

I’m avoiding sides in a game that I think gets settled by a field goal in the end. If forced to pick a side, I’ll continue to back the Colts. Road warriors.

Because I think this game shoots out, I like player prop OVERs.

Drake London’s receiving yards prop opened at 48.5 yards on Prizepicks and has moved up to 52.5 yards on most other sportsbooks.

We are 2-0 correctly calling the London games in as many weeks, and this is a spot where we want the over. He’s back at home versus a softer pass defense. London has gone over 52.5 yards in his last 5 home games, compiling no less than 67 yards in any contest.

My Picks

  • Over 44.5
  • Colts +2.5

My Props

Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns (-3)

Houston is 2-5 toward the under at home averaging 45 points per game. These teams average 42.5 points per game. But obviously, with no C.J. Stroud (not likely to play) the offensive output from the Texans’ offense needs to be adjusted. Note that the Texans hit the under last week, despite the game going into OT and the Titans scoring a pick-six.

The Texans have gone under in 9 of their last 12 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game. The Browns have averaged 23.3 points per game with Joe Flacco over his last 3 starts.

The Browns in their last 7 road games? All overs. Their defense has played worse on the road than at home this season.

The Browns are 75% ATS as a favorite this season. 7-1 overall. The Browns have won 4 of the last 5 games with a team holding a winning record.

Overall, Houston is 7-5 versus the spread over their last 12 games. But they are 75% ATS as an underdog this season. 5-3 overall.

There are a lot of question marks when it comes to handicapping this game based on the myriad of injuries Houston is dealing with.

But what we do know is that the Texans have continued to be overvalued by the market every single week. And that was true when the lines, opened as them 2.5 home favorites with question marks about Stroud’s availability.  It was announced Tuesday he won’t play, and the lines flipped to the Browns as 2.5 road favorites.

This game is tight to wrap my mind around with the lines razor sharp. I’m stuck on a Texans -2.5 ticket that I bet early – thinking that Stroud would be playing. But again, the market might be overrating his presence, making him worth 5 points total on the spread. Especially against Flacco on the road – who has been intercepted 5 times in his last 3 games. But it’s not like I feel great backing Case Keenum either.

In cases like this, I lean toward the under. But even that number is thin at 40. Still, I can’t help but think the honeymoon phase for Flacco might end sooner rather than later. And the streak of Browns’ road games hitting the over will end eventually. Against a defense that has traditionally played toward the under at home, that might be the only option in this game.

My Picks

  • Under 40

My Props:

  • N/A

Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers (-4)

The Panthers are 6-0 toward the under at home this season. 33 points scored on average. Carolina’s offense has also been worse at home, averaging under 14 points per game. 7 of the Panthers’ last 8 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Five of the Packers’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line. On a streak of four straight overs. Stoppable force meets the movable object.

The underdogs have won each of the Packers’ last five games. As favorites, Green Bay is 1-3 overall. 25% ATS as a favorite this season. As an average team, it’s not shocking to see them struggle to cover when they are not the superior team.

However, the Packers are also 6-2 when they allow fewer than 23 points on defense. 5-3 ATS. The Panthers have scored more than 23 points once with Bryce Young at QB.

The Packers are now 6-8 straight up with wins over the Bears, Saints (Derek Carr played half a game) Rams (led by Brett Rypien), Chargers team coached by Brandon Staley, the Lions, and the Chiefs. I’ll admit that I was swayed by some of their most recent wins. And they have mostly taken care of business against vastly inferior teams. But back-to-back eggs versus the Giants/Buccaneers leave you scratching your head.

The Packers’ average scoring margin is -0.1 (17th). They are about as average as they come.

The Packers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine road games against teams that held a losing record. No NFC teams are worse ATS than the Panthers (3-10-1) as they boast the worst record overall in the NFL. In yet, the Panthers have as many home wins as the Packers do on the road (2).

The Panthers defense can’t stop the run. With a healthy Aaron Jones back in the lineup, that’s a mismatch the Packers can take advantage of.

Carolina is a run-funnel and they have an underrated secondary. 12 of 13 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season. The last 10? All unders.

Taking the UNDER on Jordan Love’s 235.5 passing yards prop in Week 16. Gone under this number in 4 of his 7 road games this season.

This should be a tougher matchup for Love, who may be without both Jayden Reed and Christian Watson.

Carolina is also facing the 2nd-fewest targets and 3rd-fewest yards to WRs this season.

It’s the run-heavy nature of this game from Carolina that has me HAMMERING the over on Chuba Hubbard’s 69.5 rushing yards prop.

Expect more running of the football with a team that is looking to hide their QB any chance they can get. The Packers are the No. 1 run-funnel defense in the league. Overs on all the Hubbard props this week. 69.5 rushing yards over for Week 16? Child, please. Over in 3 straight games.

The last six RBs the Packers have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

The Panthers’ defense has also been elite versus tight ends, allowing the 2nd fewest catches allowed to tight ends this season. 9 of the last 11 tight ends Carolina has faced have gone UNDER their projected receptions totals. Also have allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs aligned in the slot.

Tucker Kraft will be a tough option to trust this week in both props and fantasy unless you are in on the unders.

Only three QBs that have faced the Packers this season have gone for 270 yards plus. 8 of the last 11 QBs that have faced GB’s defense have finished under their projected passing yards. Bryce Young’s yardage prop is already so low – 171.5 passing yards – and he still might go under. Woof.

With both passing games likely struggling, I like the game total to go under. Again, Carolina is where game totals go to die. And with both defenses bad against the run, we will see this game end quickly – and hopefully under the projected total of 36.5 points.

As for the sides, it was just one week ago that the Packers were 3.5-point favorites versus the Buccaneers. 2 weeks ago, they were 6.5-point favorites against the Giants on the road.

Don’t let last week’s win for Carolina sway you away from the gap between these two teams. Again, the Packers have been average all year. This is by far the worst team they have faced. I’ll take them laying 4.5 on the road.

My Picks

  • Under 37.5
  • Packers -4

My Props

New York Jets (-3) vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have lost each of their last five games. But Washington has also covered the spread in five of their last 7 games as road underdogs. 55% cover rate overall as an underdog.

Meanwhile, the Jets are 0-5 ATS as favorites over their last 5 games. 25% cover rate this season as a favorite. The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 games.

For this week, we still don’t know whether Zach Wilson will play, as he is currently in the concussion protocol. If he cannot play, Trevor Siemian will start. He posted a 32.9 passer rating last week…

4 of the Commanders’ last 5 games have gone OVER the total points line. 48 points scored last week did not get the over. Should be noted that if Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense, they are a perfect 4-0 toward the under. The Jets rank 30th in points per game this season (14.4). Before the Jets scored 30 on the Texans, they had not scored 20 or more points since Week 6.

When they allow 20 points on defense – 8-2 toward the OVER. What are the Jets’ odds of scoring over 19.5 points? -135. Aka an implied probability of 57.45%.

32 points are scored on average in East Rutherford, New Jersey this season between the Jets/Giants. MetLife Stadium. Like Carolina, it’s where totals go to die. 8 of the Jets’ last 9 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

The Jets allow fewer than 200 passing yards per game to opposing QBs. Only one QB they have faced this season has gone over 256 yards…

Bet the under on Sam Howell’s passing yardage and his wide receivers.

Terry McLaurin was a standout with 141 receiving yards on 6 catches, including a touchdown last week. The minute that Jacoby Brissett entered the game, TMC started to cook. Totaled 238 air yards. Brissett hit him on a 49-yard TD, but it was overturned to him being down at the 1-yard line.

Before Brissett came in the game, TMC was sitting on 3 catches for 48 yards. He caught passes of 29, 16 and 48 yards from the journeyman QB. Don’t trust him versus the Jets defense that allows the fewest receiving yards per game to WRs with Howell back at QB.

Take the under 57.5 yards on McLaurin for Week 16. Before last week, he was under 57.5 yards in four straight games. He’s projected for just 50 receiving yards in the BettingPros Prizepicks Cheat Sheet.

The Jets are more vulnerable versus the run. The one thing the Commanders’ offense cannot take advantage of. The Jets suffocating defense has me strongly just backing the game total going under, as does Howell’s lackluster performances against above-average defenses this season.

Also hate to beat a dead horse here, but the Commanders’ covering always goes back to turnovers. When the Commanders have failed ATS they have combined for 19 offensive turnovers. In the 5 games they have covered, just 3 turnovers on offense. The Jets have zero turnovers in the last 3 weeks while they have 8 offensive turnovers.

I don’t want to back either team/side here, so I’ll just take the under on two bad teams, continuing to be bad.

My Picks

  • Under 37

My Props

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (-3)

The Vikings have covered the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs (79%). They have also covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games (pushed 2 weeks ago). The Vikings have also covered the spread in each of their last six games as home underdogs against NFC North opponents. 75% ATS this season as an underdog, 4-4 straight up.

Minnesota has consistently met and exceeded expectations of the market while playing backup QBs this season. They also play every opponent extremely close every single week. The Vikings’ average scoring margin is +1.5 with all but one of their 14 games played this season decided by 8 points or less.

We know this game will be close at least from the Vikings side, so initially, I was fine catching on 3 points at home. If you find any +3.5 lines (latest on DraftKings, ESPN Bet) you should pounce.

Minnesota’s defense has been surging and has played a role in their playoff hunt, despite all the turnovers they have had on the offensive side of the ball.

Their blitz-heavy scheme also figures to give Jared Goff fits. When Goff has not been blitzed this season, he is PFF’s highest-graded passer. When not blitzed? 28th among 41 qualifying quarterbacks.

Simply put, the Vikings find ways to win, cover and keep games within striking distance.  And with WR Justin Jefferson back in full form, the offense gets a major boost for Nick Mullens starting his second game under center. The Vikings should have won handily last week, but a few red-zone woes had them come up just short. There’s recency bias in this line, with the Vikings losing a game they should have easily won.

Never like to bet against my Detroit Lions, but they have flashed some imperfections over the last few weeks. They are 4-4 ATS, with two of the three latest covers by extremely slim margins. Give credit, as they took care of Denver at home. But Denver’s been a different team away from Mile High…while we all know the Lions strongly benefit from home-field advantage.

But they haven’t been horrible on the road per se. The Lions have covered the spread in four of their last five games as road favorites. 2 were dome games, one was in sunny Tampa Bay and the other was GB in September. The only game they didn’t cover as road favorites. At Chicago in December.

The Vikings are 1-5 toward the under at home this season. 41 points scored per game.

Five of the Lions’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line. These teams have averaged 45.5 points this season.

Considering it’s an unstoppable force versus immovable object situation, the total currently at 47 is likely a shy-away spot for me – although I always lean under in these cases. It’s in a dome so that’s scary – considering the last two road dome games for the Lions have flown over the total.

Full disclosure I have fantasy football best ball teams LOADED with Lions players on them, so I am already “betting” on this game to shoot out. No need to double down in my opinion.

I’d also like to note that the Lions traditionally have been better at covering in lower-scoring games. The 4 of the last 5 games they failed to cover the spread – all hit the over. 3 of the 5 went north of 50 points.

The Lions have the 29th-ranked red zone defense.

The Vikings have allowed the 8th-fewest fantasy points to QBs over the last four weeks. Only one QB since Week 5 has scored 16-plus fantasy points against them. Also, nearly half of the QBs they have faced have finished under their passing yardage props over the last 11 games. Jared Goff has gone under 2505. passing yards in his last 2 road games. Minnesota also allows the second-fewest explosive plays per game…Hence my hesitance to just smash the over.

I usually LOVE targeting the tough rushing matchup that the Vikings defense presents. Minnesota has allowed just ONE running back to rush for 70-plus yards against them this season. And that happened back in Week 2. Just two RBs they have faced this season have gone for 55 yards or more. But, the Lions are a different beast rushing the ball against almost every defense. I’ll shy away from Lions RB props this week.

Instead attack this game is with rookie WR Jordan Addison. Addison led with 6 catches for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Justin Jefferson made 7 receptions for 84 yards in Week 15. Jefferson was targeted 10 times giving him a Target share of 29.4%. Saw 52% of the team’s air yards. Addison received 6 targets, accounting for about 18% of the total pass attempts.

The rookie remains super-efficient with his opportunities, which is why I love him MORE THAN his egregiously low receiving number set at 49.5 yards. He’s gone over this number in 10/14 games played this season (71%) including in Mullens’ first start last week. Only once in 6 games played with a fully healthy Jefferson has Addison come under 41.5 yards, totaling no less than 52 yards.

Addison is Projected for just 49 receiving yards in the BettingPros Prizepicks Cheat Sheet in a great matchup versus the Lions. The Lions are 30th in DVOA vs. No. 2 WRs this season.

My Picks

  • Vikings +3

My Props

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Buccaneers are 2-4 toward the under at home this season. Tampa Bay is also 8-6 toward the under this season overall. But each of the Buccaneers’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line, with their pass defense getting exposed by opposing offenses. But that has hardly been the case in Tampa, where teams have averaged just 33.3 points scored per game.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games. They are 75% ATS as a favorite this season, while just 33% as an underdog. Jacksonville is 2-4 as an underdog.

The Buccaneers are 70% ATS as an underdog, while just 50% ATS as a favorite.

Needless to say, I’d like to back the Buccaneers when they opened as 2.5-point underdogs to the Jaguars. But with the Jaguars’ loss on Sunday night and Trevor Lawrence in the concussion protocol, liking Tampa Bay early moved the lines heavily in their favor.

Truly hard to pick sides without knowing whether Lawrence plays at the time of this writing. If he doesn’t play, you take the Buccaneers at home, in my estimation up to -3.

If Lawrence plays (as currently expected after clearing the concussion protocol Saturday), I’d opt to just bet on the over at 43, rather than chasing the spread line movement. Both defenses can’t get out of their way, specifically against the pass. Two pass-funnel defenses that force teams to air the ball out. These teams rank 5th and 6th in pass-play rate faced this season.

In their combined last 10 games, 7-3 toward the over. These teams have averaged 43.5 points scored. The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in four of their last five games (all games going over that matched the threshold)

There’s enough offensive firepower on both sides to back the over at 42.5 points, assuming we get the green light for Lawrence.

And be sure to get in on a ton of player prop action, with yardage coming in bunches in this matchup.

Take the OVER for Baker Mayfield’s 234.5 passing yards prop versus the Jags. His average this season is 237 passing yards. No team has allowed more passing yards in the last four weeks than Jacksonville (285.5 per game). Only 3 QBs they have faced this season have NOT gone over their passing yards projection. And correlate the play with his No. 1 WR, Mike Evans to go over 66.5 receiving yards. Evans has gone over 66.5 receiving yards in his last 3 home games. He is Projected for just 70 receiving yards in the BettingPros Prizepicks Cheat Sheet.

The Jaguars have also allowed the 6th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs. 6th-most yards to all WRs in the last four weeks. 4th-most to tight ends over same span.

On the other side of the ball…The Buccaneers defense is allowing the 2nd-most receiving yards per game to WRs in 2023. The Bucs are also allowing the 5th-most yards and 6th-most receptions per game to tight ends.

The Buccaneers have allowed the 5th-most passing yards in the last four weeks. 4th-most yards to WRs.

My Picks

  • Over 43

My Props

Chicago Bears (-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals

When Chicago has established an effective ground game – as they did versus Minnesota, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Carolina and Detroit but not vs. the LA Chargers – their offense has been effective, and they have played games tight. 6-2-1 ATS in last 9 games. They couldn’t run the ball last week versus the Browns and they pushed the total with a loss by 3 points.

They are going to be able to run ALL over the Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed to RBs this season. D’Onta Foreman (who started last week) was held to -6 rushing yards on a backfield-leading 6 carries but earned the 2 red-zone carries. Multiple goal-line attempts that had no chance of converting. 26% snap share. But he led the first half-carries (4) versus 2 for each of the other RBs. Roschon Johnson was the last RB to earn a touch (2nd quarter).

The Bears have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 12 games against teams that held a losing record. Arizona playing on the road this season…1-6 straight up (3-4 ATS). But Chicago is also 3-3 at home, and 3-0-1 ATS in Justin Fields’ last four starts. Against all teams with winning records. 2-2 straight up.

As for the total in this game…heavily leaning toward the under.

The Bears are 3-3 O/U averaging 43.5 points per game at home this season.

Each of the Cardinals’ last five road games has gone UNDER the total points line. The Cardinals are 0-7 toward the UNDER on the road this season.

Six of the Bears’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line. 3-0 toward the under the last 3 weeks even after the team started 6-0 toward the over with Justin Fields as the starting QB.

The Bears have one of the league’s best-run defenses, ranking top-5 in fewest yards per carry allowed this season. James Conner will struggle versus the Bears are a no-run defense. Other than the Lions’ RBs, no RB has rushed for 60 yards versus the Bears’ defense since Week 4.

Conner soared over his rushing prop last week against a fierce 49ers defense, but half his yardage on a 44-yard burst. Before that, he was sitting on 27 yards on 10 carries in the first half. Played 49% of the snaps in a three-way committee.

The same goes for the Cardinals QB. 8 of the last 12 QBs facing the Bears have gone UNDER their yardage totals, including 6 of the last 8. The Bears’ pass defense has improved dramatically since a rocky start.  At home, they have allowed the league’s 6th-lowest yards per attempt (5.5). No QB they have faced in Chicago has thrown for more than 240 yards.

It’s an overall tough matchup on the road for the Cardinals in Week 16 at the Bears.

Therefore, I’m taking the under on Kyler Murray’s passing yards. The Cardinals QB has not passed for 215 passing yards in any of his 3 road starts this season. His Prizepicks line opened at 220.5 passing yards.

Arizona is allowing the 10th-most receiving yards to WRs this season and the league’s highest catch rate to WRs. Back D.J. Moore OVERs.

Conner has also been losing out on targets in the passing game to the likes of Emeri Demercado and Michael Carter throughout the season. He’s no longer a locked-and-loaded three-down RB, with him ceding snaps on third downs to other Cardinals RBs.

Conner has gone over 9.5 receiving yards ONCE this season. In 10 games played. EMPTY THE CLIP.

The Arizona Cardinals are allowing the 3rd-fewest yards and receptions to tight ends this season.  Fade the Cole Kmet player props this week.

Take the Bears – 4 at home, and lock in the under.

My Picks:

  • Bears -4
  • Under 43

My Props:

Miami Dolphins (-1.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Miami is 5-2 ATS and 6-1 straight up at home this season, winning by no less than two TDs in all but 2 contests. They have been a solid bet backing at home, even as heavy favorites. 9-2 overall as a favorite.

I believe – as does the market – Miami can mostly overwhelm bad teams and fail to beat good teams. But that’s when the team has their MVP, Tyreek Hill, healthy in the lineup. He missed last week, but it didn’t matter against the Jets. He did not practice on Wednesday ahead of Week 16. But that’s been labeled as just a precaution. Might have just been savvy gamesmanship by Mike McDaniel to hold out Hill, knowing they wouldn’t need him to beat the Jets. Having him closer to 100% would be critical for their team to beat Dallas as one of the better teams they have faced. It’s a “prove it” game for Miami, to show they can play with the big boys.

Miami’s defense has played better than how they started the season, allowing fewer than 285 yards per game in six of their last 7 games. 3-4 toward the O/U.

What also works in the Dolphins’ favor is that do not allow explosive plays – similar to that of the Buffalo Bills.

Last week, Dallas’ longest play on offense (that wasn’t a penalty) was 16 yards. They averaged 3.4 yards per play.

Miami is 4-3 toward the over this season at home. 52.3 points scored on average in Miami’s games in South Beach. These teams have averaged 51 points scored on average this season.

The Cowboys have won each of their last nine games following a loss. They have not covered as underdogs in 5 straight games. 0% ATS this season as dogs (0-3) this season. Like Miami, they also have struggled away from home.

3-4 ATS on the road this season compared to 7-1 ATS at home. Keep in mind, that the overall favorites have covered the spread in 13 of the Cowboys’ last 15 games.

Although the road team has covered the spread in four of the Dolphins’ last five games.

Meanwhile, 7 of the Cowboys’ last 10 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 6 of 8 games through the air.

Dallas had played 8 straight games with 300-plus yards on offense and scored 20-plus points in all games except for last week versus Buffalo.

But the games that didn’t go over? 3 of the 5 road games Dallas has played over that stretch.

Only 3 QBs that have faced Dallas have thrown for more than 230 passing yards this season. 8 of the last 11 QBs they have faced have gone UNDER their projected passing yards.

Given how the Dallas Cowboys run defense was exposed last week, we could easily see Miami dial up more a methodical rushing attack to take care of business against Big D with Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane at the forefront of the rushing attack.

Mostert has rushed for 60-plus yards in 5 of his 7 home games played this season. Dallas also ranks 5th-worst in rushing yards allowed per game on the road this season (148.3).

Dallas is also allowing the 6th-fewest receiving yards and 6th-fewest receptions per game to WRs this season.

I’d bet Mike McDaniel knows that Dallas’ weakness is against the run, and he will be game-planning around this strategically. But rushing is used more to grind out wins and hit unders, rather than cover TD-plus point spreads and go OVER projected totals.

Although when they decide to throw…Tua Tagovailoa should be effective. Defensively for Dallas, they play the fourth-most amount of man coverage in the NFL. Great for Tagovailoa, who ranks third in the NFL in yards per attempt and EPA/play against man coverage this season.

I am taking the Phins -1.5 at home. The trends in my estimate, back them slightly more at home than Dallas playing on the road as underdogs for the second straight week. And from an Xs and Os standpoint, the Dolphins have the exact advantages you’d look for on both the offensive and defense sides of the ball.

I feel less confident about the total, with such a high number at 50 points. 4 of the last 10 games these teams have played have gone over 50 points.

It’s been bet down slightly since it opened at 51.5 points. Could go either way and wouldn’t surprise me to see it come down to the wire.

As for specific player props…The Dolphins are allowing the 11th-most receptions per game to tight ends (5.3).

Jake Ferguson has 5-plus receptions in three straight games, going over 44 yards in all contests.

My Picks:

  • Dolphins -1.5

My Prop:

Denver Broncos (-7.5) vs. New England Patriots

The Broncos games average 43.5 points at home this season. Overall, 3-4 toward the under at home. 8 of the Broncos’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Broncos’ defensive improvements have come at the cost of the offense that has turned Russell Wilson into an ultra-conservative game manager.

The team has totaled fewer than 200 passing yards in 7 of their last 10 games played.

The Broncos have won each of their last four home games. What’s lost in the Broncos’ mid-season surge was how often they played at home—played 4 home games since Week 7. 4-0 straight up in Denver. The totals in those games? 41, 41, 33, 36 points scored. 2-1-1 toward the under. And 3-1 ATS.

The Patriots have also failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 15 games as underdogs. The New England Patriots have the worst overall record and ATS in the AFC (29%). 3-11 ATS this season. Woof.

These teams have combined for a 17-11 record toward the under averaging 41 points scored.

This is a matchup between strong defenses. This game has everything you’d find in a grind-out gross game. Take the under and don’t look back.

Especially with both teams entering this week coming off overs hitting.

Or just bet player props…

Great matchup for Hunter Henry this week against the Broncos’ No. 32-ranked defense versus tight ends. The last 11 tight ends they have faced have gone for at least 30 or more receiving yards. If Henry misses, buy the dip on Mike Gesicki when his lines get dropped.

Also love the matchup for Pats RB1 Ezekiel Elliott to be super productive in this spot. Zeke’s rushing yardage prop could open egregiously LOW. If it’s under 50 yards, go over. Denver has allowed the most rushing yards per to RBs this season. 10 of the last 12 RBs they have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

The Patriots are the No. 1 defense versus the run, allowing 3.3 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Take the under on Broncos RB rushing props. Javonte Williams’ rushing line opened at 55.5 rushing yards. He’s gone under this mark in 3 of his last 5 games. The Patriots haven’t allowed an RB to hit 55 rushing yards since Week 10. In the last four games, they have allowed an average of just 43.5 rushing yards to RBs.

My Picks:

  • Under 35.5
  • Broncos -7.5

My Prop:

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