Sunday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Steelers vs. Dolphins (Week 7)
The Week 7 Sunday night showdown features two of the hardest teams in the NFL to figure out. In the red corner is the 2-4 Pittsburgh Steelers, who snapped a four-game losing skid last week with a massive upset over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In the blue corner is the Miami Dolphins, who began the year 3-0 but have dropped their last three games while dealing with quarterback injuries.
In an NFL where seven teams make the playoffs, this conference game could prove to be pivotal for both teams. Do we back Mike Tomlin’s bunch as big road dogs, or back Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins to bounce back? Let’s break it down:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-7.5), Total 44.5
Steelers offense stuck in the mud
The Steelers offense is an odd mess. They have the skill weapons in Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth and Chase Claypool. But the Steelers are still looking for answers along the offensive line and, most importantly, at quarterback.
Pittsburgh ranks dead-last in the league in yards per play and rank 24th in offensive DVOA. After starting the season with Mitchell Trubisky at the helm, rookie Kenny Pickett has taken over with mixed results. Pickett has a 38.2 QBR and has completed 66.3% of his passes for 514 yards, a touchdown and four interceptions. To be fair, Pickett has faced the Bills and Buccaneers defenses in his first career starts and suffered a concussion last week against Tampa Bay.
But perhaps the biggest problem for Pittsburgh has been its deteriorated offensive line, which ranks 26th in adjusted line yards and 29th in second-level yards. That’s made life more difficult for Najee Harris and the Steelers running game. Pittsburgh ranks 31st in rushing DVOA, and Harris has been held to 264 yards and one touchdown. The lack of a steady running game has made life hardest for whoever’s under center, as the Steelers are often operating behind schedule.
Defensively, Pittsburgh has done an admirable job holding down the fort with T.J. Watt sidelined with a torn pectoral muscle. Despite Watt’s absence, Pittsburgh ranks 15th in defensive DVOA and have a top-1o run defense. To no surprise, the Steelers have struggled to pressure the passer without Watt, and have just a 6.1% adjusted sack rate.
Miami returns to Tua Time
The Miami Dolphins looked to be one of the up-and-comers in the AFC through the first month of the season. The Dolphins were 3-0 with a dynamic offense and a huge win over the Buffalo Bills. Then, Tua Tagovailoa suffered a nasty concussion on a Thursday night in Cincinnati, and the team’s fortunes changed instantly.
Led by Teddy Bridgewater, then Skylar Thompson, Miami has dropped three in a row in relatively ugly fashion. Despite the revolving door under center, McDaniel’s offense still ranks among the league’s best. Miami is 6th in offensive DVOA and fifth in passing and fifth in yards per play.
It helps to have speedy wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to throw to. Oftentimes, opposing defenders have struggled to contain both of these electric weapons. Hill has 701 yards on 50 catches, while Waddle has 533 yards on 30 grabs.
The key has been giving Tagovailoa sufficient time to let plays develop and hit his receivers in stride. Miami’s offensive line has done a decent job at doing so, with an adjusted sack rate of 7.1%. If they can hold up against a Watt-less Steelers pass rush, then Miami shouldn’t have too many issues moving the chains.
Defensively, Miami remains a blitz-heavy unit, and that high risk style has gotten them into trouble so far this year. Miami ranks 25th defensively in DVOA, and 31st in pass defense DVOA. The Dolphins don’t get to the quarterback often, with just 12 sacks on the year. Miami also has just four takeaways on the year.
All of this could be problematic against a fearless Pickett who has plenty of talent around him.
Game Prediction and Best Bet
This is a tricky game to handicap, as a lot of it comes down to what Tagovailoa looks like. Given Pittsburgh’s lackluster pass rush, I expect Tua to have plenty of time to throw, which could lead to plenty of chunk plays against a suspect Steelers secondary. On the other side, Miami’s defense doesn’t give me much confidence, even against a rookie quarterback.
Primetime games in 2022 have been notoriously ugly. But I suspect we could be in store for a high scoring affair Sunday night in Miami. I’ll take the over, with a slight lean to the underdog.
The pick: Over 44.5, lean Steelers +7.5
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