Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Packers vs. Bills (Week 8)
On Sunday night, the Packers and Bills will square off in Buffalo. The Bills have rolled through the early part of the NFL season, and have started to pull away as Super Bowl favorites as we near the season’s midpoint. Green Bay, on the other hand, has been disappointing to start the season. They find themselves at 3-4, 2 games back of the NFC North lead.
Buffalo comes into the game as 10.5-point favorites, with a game total of 46.5. The books expect the Bills to stay hot on Sunday night. I’ve created a 4 leg parlay offered on Draftkings with major value for the game:
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Leg 1: Packers Team Total U14.5 (+140)
Sunday night will see a struggling Packers offense go up against a Bills defense that sits atop the NFL scoring defense rankings. Green Bay has averaged 18.3 points per game this year – a bottom ten mark that puts them within a point per game of Washington, Chicago, and Carolina.
Aaron Rodgers has played well on the year, but he’s been nowhere near the MVP candidate we’ve come to expect. It’s clear the loss of star WR Davante Adams is taking its toll, as Rodgers adjusts to a younger, less-talented receiver core.
On the other side of the ball, the Buffalo defense has held opponents to an insanely low 13.5 points per game. This average is first in the league by 1.5 points per game. The Bills haven’t allowed a team to score more than 21 points per game this season, and have held half three of the teams they’ve played this year to 10 or fewer points.
I expect the Bills defense to capitalize on a poor Packers offense and hold Green Bay to a low total in this game. With such a wide spread on the game, there’s a chance the Bills get up in a hurry and the second half sees fast-moving, low-scoring football.
Leg 2: Josh Allen U304.5 Pass Yards (-195)
While the Packers’ offense has struggled this season, their defense has played well enough to keep them in games. They’ve been particularly good against the pass – Green Bay has allowed opposing QBs to throw for just 183.1 yards per game. This is the lowest mark in the NFL. Over the last four games the Packers haven’t allowed an opposing QB to break 220 pass yards, albeit against worse competition than they’ll be facing Sunday.
Allen is a favorite to win MVP, throwing for 330 yards per game this season. Allen has thrown for under 300 yards in only 2 games this year, and one of those he finished with 297 yards. He has gotten most of his production in the first half, however – 62% of Allen’s yards this season have come before halftime. This is a function of the Bills playing more conservative offense and keeping the ball on the ground once they get up big on opponents.
With the Packers boasting one of the top pass defenses in the NFL, and the Bills likely to be up big, I don’t think Allen has a monster statistical game on Sunday. I expect one of his lower yardage totals of the season, even if it does come in an easy win.
Leg 3: Aaron Jones U69.5 Rush Yards (-370)
With our last two picks, we’ve lined up a game flow where the Bills win convincingly. To stay aligned here, taking a rushing total under for the Packers is an excellent play.
Jones has been a pretty efficient runner this year, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Due to his time share with AJ Dillon and low rushing volume for the packers as a whole, however, this hasn’t translated to many huge rushing games. Jones’ rushing total was under 70 rushing yards in 5 of 7 games this season.
I don’t expect this trend to change against the Bills on Sunday. Buffalo allows just 53 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs, the lowest mark in the league by a wide margin. They’ve only allowed more than 70 rushing yards to opposing RBs once all season – against the Ravens in a game where RB’s carried the ball 22 times for 89 yards.
Between Packers’ carries being split between Jones and Dillon, an impressive Bills rush defense, and a score that will likely force the Packers to throw early and often, I think Jones will come in well below 70 rushing yards on Sunday.
Leg 4: Dawson Knox U29.5 Receiving Yds (+115)
Continuing with a game flow in which the Bills don’t have a monster day in the passing game, I expect Knox to be held in check on Sunday night. He has played in 5 games this season, and averages 3 catches for 30 yards per game. After being a trendy sleeper pick in fantasy football this season, he’s struggled to post consistent stat lines thus far.
He’ll likely be in for a long night on Sunday against a Packers defense that allows the fewest receiving yards to TE’s in the NFL (28.7 yards per game). Green Bay has held opposing teams TE’s under 30 receiving yards in all but one game this year. Their defensive scheme is excellent at neutralizing the middle of the field where most TE’s thrive.
With Allen likely to have a lower yardage total than normal, and a Packers defense that excels against TEs, I don’t think a big game is in the cards for Knox on Sunday night.
Total Parlay Odds: +500
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