Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks: Dolphins vs. Steelers (Week 7)
This Sunday, the Steelers and Dolphins will square off in Miami. The game has major implications for both teams. The Steelers will need a win to avoid falling to 2-5 and slipping further out of the AFC playoff picture. The Dolphins will look to move to 4-3 with QB Tua Tagovailoa set to return after missing the last two games with a concussion.
The Dolphins are favored by 7.5 points at home, and the total on the game is 45.5. The books are expecting the Dolphins to win without too much trouble in a game with an average number of points. Below is a four-leg parlay offered on DraftKings with excellent value for Sunday night’s game.
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Leg 1: Najee Harris U59.5 Rush Yards (-245)
After being a first-round pick in many fantasy football drafts following a great rookie season, Harris has been a disappointment so far in 2022. His stat line includes just 264 yards on 83 carries (3.2 YPC) and only one game over 56 rush yards all season. Not only has Harris lacked explosiveness, but the Steelers offensive line has struggled as well.
I don’t expect Harris to find his rookie year form in Miami this weekend. The Dolphins defense allows 3.7 yards per carry and 71.3 rush yards per game to RBs, both representing the third-lowest mark in the league. This is despite playing the Jets and Vikings in their last two games – two of the better run offenses in the NFL.
The game flow is unlikely to help Harris. With the Dolphins sitting at favorites of more than a touchdown, it’s likely they’ll stake out an early lead against the Steelers. If the latter has to throw the ball to keep up with the explosive Dolphins offense, I doubt Harris will get the opportunity he needs to gain a high amount of rushing yards.
Leg 2: Kenny Pickett O194.5 Pass Yards (-265)
In limited action to start his rookie campaign, Steelers first-round QB Kenny Pickett has shown some promise. He led a late comeback against the Jets that fell short in his first game after taking over for Mitch Trubisky. The following week, Pickett posted 327 yards on 52 attempts in a loss to Buffalo. Most recently, he was holding his own against a good Buccaneers defense in Week 7 before leaving early with concussion symptoms.
This week, Pickett goes up against the worst pass defense he’s faced all season. The Dolphins have allowed opposing QBs to post a 105.5 QB Rating against them this season. That’s the 4th worst mark in the league. Their 7.9 yards allowed per attempt implies that an average QB would need about 25 pass attempts to break 195 yards against the Dolphins.
Unlike Harris, I expect the game flow to help Pickett on Sunday night. If the Dolphins get out to a lead and the Steelers offense is forced to the air, Pickett should have no trouble going over 195 pass yards. A combination of ample opportunity and a suspect Dolphins pass defense will help him post a solid yardage total.
Leg 3: Tyreek Hill 100+ Receiving Yards (+170)
Before the season, there were some questions as to how Hill would perform in an offense without Patrick Mahomes. Through six games, it’s clear that Hill is going to have a massive season in Miami. Hill leads the league in receiving yards with 701 – an insane 116.8 yards per game. This is despite his signature play – the deep ball in man coverage – tougher to come by with Tua missing the last two games. His longest catch in that span is just 28 yards.
The Steelers, on the other hand, have been the worst defense in the NFL against WRs. They’ve allowed opposing WRs to post 211 receiving yards per game – the worst mark in the NFL. Their secondary has consistently struggled to contain the other team’s weapons on the outside.
With Tua back, and against a suspect defense, Hill should have a monster game on Sunday. I see game flow as a risk here – if Miami is up big they may run the ball to sit on their lead – but, as the most aggressive leg of this parlay, I love the value offered here.
Leg 4: Dolphins Team Total O26.5 (-135)
As you can tell by now, I expect the Dolphins to get up early and play well against a less-than-impressive Steelers defense. The Steelers are awful at defending passes to WRs and routinely allow big games to QBs. With Tua returning and having one of the best WR tandems in the NFL, the Dolphins are in a prime position to exploit this weakness.
The Dolphins have moved the ball well this year, but with Tua having missed time and having gone against some of the best defenses in the NFL, they haven’t had many explosive games on offense. I expect that to change on Sunday night, as the Dolphins should handle an inferior Steelers team at home.
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