Sunday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets: Steelers vs. Dolphins (Week 7)
Tonight we have a matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins. Millions of dollars will get bet on this game. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let’s take a look.
All props are from DraftKings.
Pittsburgh Steelers First TD Scorer: Najee Harris (RB) +320
The Pittsburgh offense hasn’t looked great this year. However, Harris has been the most consistent player on offense. The Steelers have scored a touchdown in five of six games this season, as they only scored three points against the Buffalo Bills in Week 5. However, the second-year running back has scored the first offensive touchdown for the Steelers three times, including a six-yard receiving touchdown last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have surrendered five rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, the fourth-most in the NFL. Harris should see plenty of work early in tonight’s game.
Miami Dolphins First TD Scorer: Jaylen Waddle (WR) +400
Tua Tagovailoa will return tonight after missing the past 2.5 games with a concussion. His return is excellent news for Waddle. The second-year wide receiver scored the first offensive touchdown for Miami in the first two games of the year. Over the first three games, he has averaged 10 targets per game. By comparison, Waddle averaged 6.3 targets per game over the past three weeks, with Tagovailoa out of the lineup. Furthermore, he ties for the team lead in total touchdowns with three. Meanwhile, the Steelers have surrendered nine receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, the most in the NFL. With Pittsburgh’s secondary struggling, expect a few downfield shots to Waddle early in the contest.
Anytime TD Scorer: Najee Harris (RB – PIT) +145
Typically I try to avoid picking the same player for an anytime touchdown and their team’s first touchdown scorer. However, Harris is the Pittsburgh offense. The second-year running back has three of the team’s eight offensive touchdowns this season, including their first touchdown last week. However, if bettors want a dark horse candidate, Kenny Pickett at +500 is a solid option. The rookie quarterback leads the team with two rushing touchdowns. Furthermore, Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky have combined for three rushing touchdowns this season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have surrendered two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year, the fourth-most in the NFL.
Anytime TD Scorer: Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) +100
There are a few good options for this bet. Tyreek Hill at -105 and Waddle at +110 are also appealing options, but I’m going with Mostert. The former San Francisco 49ers running back scored Miami’s first touchdown two weeks ago against the New York Jets. Furthermore, he and Chase Edmonds account for nearly 25% of the Dolphins’ offensive touchdowns this season. However, Mostert has taken over the lead role from Edmonds, playing 17.8 more snaps per game since Week 1. Meanwhile, the Steelers have surrendered four rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, the 10th-most in the NFL. They have also allowed the third-most red zone touches (27) and the fourth-most goal-to-go touches (17) to running backs this season.
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