Top 3 Super Bowl LIX Bets to Fade: Eagles vs. Chiefs (2025)

by Mike Fanelli|Feb 3, 2025

Everyone loves betting on the Super Bowl. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making for the Super Bowl LIX matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs. I also have three bets in this game that you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

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Super Bowl LIX Bets to Fade

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Avoid Betting Patrick Mahomes Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Mahomes averaged 245.5 passing yards per game during the regular season, the lowest average of his career, down 6.1% from his previous career low.
Last year, he averaged 262.8 yards per game during the playoffs, totaling 241 or fewer in half of the contests. Unfortunately, Mahomes hasn't had as much success this year in the postseason.
The superstar has averaged 211 yards per game during the playoffs, totaling 245 or fewer in both matchups. More importantly, he had only 182 yards against the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.
Philadelphia had one of the top pass defenses in the NFL this year. They held quarterbacks to 192.1 yards per game during the regular season, the second-fewest in the league.

Instead, Bet Jalen Hurts Over 199.5 Passing Yards (-135)

Hurts averaged 193.5 passing yards per game during the regular season, his lowest as the full-time starter. However, he averaged 206.6 yards per game in his 14 healthy contests.
Furthermore, the star quarterback had 246 yards in the NFC Championship Game matchup against the Washington Commanders despite having only 20 completions in the blowout win.
The Chiefs surrendered 223.5 yards per game to quarterbacks during the regular season. However, they've given up 241 yards per game during the playoffs, allowing at least 237 in both outings.
Kansas City gave up 304 yards to Hurts in Super Bowl LVII, the highest total of his playoff career and the 12th-best of his regular and postseason career.

Avoid Betting Xavier Worthy Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (+110)

Worthy had high expectations as a rookie. He ended the regular season averaging 37.5 receiving yards per game, ranking fifth on the team.
However, the former Texas star has stepped up his game lately. Worthy has averaged 68.5 yards per game over his past four contests with Patrick Mahomes, totaling 65 or more in all but one outing.
The star rookie wide receiver led the Chiefs in receptions (six), targets (seven), receiving yards (85), and touchdowns (one) in the AFC Championship Game win over the Buffalo Bills, setting a career-high in yards.
Philadelphia has struggled to slow down opposing No. 1 wide receivers during the playoffs. They surrendered 64.7 yards per game to Jayden Reed, Puka Nacua, and Terry McLaurin, giving up at least 51 in back-to-back contests.

Instead, Bet Saquon Barkley Over 112.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Barkley was far and away the top running back in the NFL this year. He led the league in rushing attempts (345), yards (2,005), and yards per game (125.3) during the regular season.
Yet, the superstar has taken his game to another level during the playoffs, averaging 147.3 yards per game. Barkley had at least 118 yards in every postseason contest.
The former Penn State star had at least 118 yards in half of the regular season games and 57.9% of the contests this year, including the playoffs.
Kansas City has had issues with running backs during the postseason, surrendering 18 attempts for 88 yards to Joe Mixon and 13 attempts for 85 yards to James Cook.

Avoid Betting Travis Kelce Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (+105)

Kelce had the worst regular season of his career in 2024. The future Hall of Famer averaged 51.4 receiving yards per game, the lowest mark of his career.
However, the veteran is capable of big performances, totaling 62 or more yards in half of the regular season games, including 84 in his last game of the year on Christmas Day.
More importantly, he has stepped up during the playoffs. Last year, Kelce averaged 88.8 yards per game during the postseason, totaling 71 or more in every contest.
The star tight end has averaged 81.7 yards per game over his past seven playoff contests, including 81 in the Super Bowl LVII win over the Eagles.

Instead, Bet Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

Goedert averaged 49.6 receiving yards per game during the regular season. However, the veteran averaged 55.1 yards per game in the nine contests he played at least 19% of the snaps.
More importantly, Goedert has been outstanding during the playoffs, averaging 62.7 yards per game, totaling at least 56 in back-to-back contests, including 85 last week.
Furthermore, the veteran tight end played well in the Super Bowl LVII loss to the Chiefs, totaling six receptions on seven targets for 60 yards.
Kansas City surrendered 70.1 yards per game to tight ends during the regular season, the most in the NFL. They also gave up 63 yards to Dalton Schultz in their first playoff matchup this year.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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