It has been a very entertaining NFL season, but we're down to the final game of the year: Super Bowl LIX. This year's big game features the Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) taking on the Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) in New Orleans, LA.
The Chiefs opened as a slim 1.5-point favorite, while the opening total was a consensus of 49.5 points. Below I'll dive into where I believe these numbers could move as we approach the Super Bowl on February 9th.
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Super Bowl LIX Line Movement Predictions: Side
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Opening Line: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-109)
Since the Super Bowl betting market opened, we've already seen money coming in on the back-to-back champions, pushing Chiefs -2 at -105 odds. Is this a notable move? Well, the key spread numbers in the NFL are 3 and 7, and then you start getting into a second tier of numbers like 4, 6 and 10.
So, this movement is telling, in that early bettors are favoring Kansas City, but it's not the end of the world if you're looking to make a bet on Philadelphia. Just to drive this point home, it's worth mentioning that the last 33 Super Bowls have finished with a margin of greater than two points. You have to go back to 1991 to find the last game that finished inside of three points, which was a 20-19 New York Giants win over the Buffalo Bills.
However, the last three Super Bowls have finished with a margin of victory of exactly three points, as have eight of the last 33 Super Bowls. The key question that needs to be asked is, "Will this spread ever reach Eagles +3?" If it does, this would likely warrant a wager on the Eagles, since we've reached the key number of 3.
I think it's extremely unlikely we get out to 3. It's more probable we'll stay right here in the -1.5-to-2.5-point range in favor of the Chiefs.
The biggest variable that could impact the spread is injury news. Kansas City suffered no new injuries in their 32-29 win over Buffalo, so there's nothing noteworthy on their end. As for Philadelphia, OC Cam Jurgens (back) did get some time in their 55-23 demolition of Washington, so with another two weeks to heal up, he should be full-go for the big game. The other big news for the Eagles is that veteran DE Brandon Graham (20 tackles, 3.5 sacks, one forced fumble), who hasn't played since Week 12 with a tricep injury, may be ready for the Super Bowl.
Even if these Philadelphia players are ready for Super Bowl Sunday, they wouldn't push the spread closer to 3. Instead, it may move it back toward 1.5. All things considered, we're likely staying right here in this range of -1.5-to-2.5 in favor of Kansas City. We shouldn't be shocked, as these late-playoff games are some of the sharpest lines sportsbooks offer.
Super Bowl LIX Line Movement Predictions: Total
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Opening Total: O/U 49.5 Points (+100/-115)
Regarding the total, it opened at 49.5 points following the Conference Championship games, and it has stayed right there throughout the night. When looking at factors that could impact the Super Bowl betting total, it's once again injuries, as well as weather. Let's start with the latter, and we should be able to wrap this up in one sentence. This championship contest will be played in the Caesars Superdome, meaning the weather will have zero impact on the game (as it's a dome).
As for injuries, the above-mentioned Philadelphia injuries likely wouldn't have any major impact on the total. Center and defensive end are very important positions from a strategic standpoint, but in terms of sports betting, it's typically skilled positions that have more impact on betting lines.
With that being said, we may see this total head north by 0.5 or 1.5 points as we approach kick-off. The opening line was 49.5 points with a +100 payout to the over, and while it's still 49.5 points, the over is sitting around -110, meaning there has been some early betting on the over. I would suggest if you're looking to bet the over, it's better to do so earlier rather than later. As for why, well, that's because we'll see more "recreational and casual bettors" place their bets closer to kick-off, and we all know the public enjoys betting overs. That could push the total higher.
The opposite would be true if you're looking to bet the under. You can probably hold off for a bit, and there's a chance you can snag a total of 50 as we inch closer to kickoff. This would protect you from scores of 27-23 or 30-20, helping you take a push as opposed to a loss.
Just to give you the bottom line and wrap this up, it's my opinion that if this total is going to move, it's going to go up. Between a fast, indoor playing surface with perfect weather conditions and these two upward-trending offenses, the betting public would likely bet the over, pushing the number north.
I will be writing a follow-up piece next Monday, so be on the lookout. We'll see how my projections fared, as well as look at any new information that could impact the betting lines as we approach kickoff for Super Bowl LIX.
