Super Bowl LV Squares Strategy Guide (2021)
The Super Bowl LV matchup is set, which means it’s time for us to get into our squares pools.
While there are so many ways to bet on the Super Bowl, squares pools might be the most popular. They’re a great way for a large group to get in on the action. Plus, anyone can play and have a chance to win.
Squares pools can be pretty random, but that doesn’t mean we can’t come in with a strategy. Here’s my guide to giving yourself the best chance to win your Super Bowl squares pool.
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How Squares Pools Work
An organizer creates a grid that’s 10 columns by 10 rows. One team is assigned the rows, the other the columns. Players then select their boxes. Then, each column and row is randomly assigned a number between 0 and 9.
To win, your box must correspond with the final digit in each team’s score at the end of each quarter. For example, if the score at halftime of this year’s Super Bowl is Buccaneers 13, Chiefs 10, the player who has the box with Buccaneers 3, and Chiefs 0 is the winner.
The Numbers You Want
There are definitely better numbers than others in squares pools. But which ones give you the best chance of winning? I took a look at the final scores from every Super Bowl since 2000 to see which numbers came up most often as the second digit.
Number of Occurrences as the Second Digit in a Team’s Super Bowl Final Score
| 0 | 4 |
| 1 | 9 |
| 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 |
| 4 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 |
| 6 | 1 |
| 7 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 |
This is a relatively small sample size when considering this table only accounts for the final score of the last 21 games. However, it gives us good information to work with.
Seven and zero typically give you the best chances of winning squares pools, especially early in games. Just think of all the combinations that end with those digits: 0-0, 7-0, 7-7, 10-7, 10-10, 17-10, 17-17, etc.
Three is also a good number to have early in games. However, it’s a harder number to hit on as the points accumulate. Then again, having threes in Super Bowl LIII wasn’t too bad, as that game ended with the Patriots beating the Rams, 13-3.
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The Good, Not Great Numbers
If you don’t end up with sevens, zeroes, or threes, don’t be discouraged. There are still some good numbers out there that just require a bit more luck and scoring to hit.
Ones, fours, and sixes are all decent numbers. Think about how many times you’ve seen a 24-21 score in a game? Six is a little trickier. But with extra points being missed at a higher rate, there’s always the chance of a six or a 16 showing up on the scoreboard.
The Ugly Numbers
I don’t want to say you’re doomed if you’re stuck with twos, fives, eights, or nines. But the odds are certainly against you.
Simply put, there just aren’t many common football scores that end with these digits. Your best bets are scores of 9, 12, 15, 28, and 35. Then again, with the two high-powered offenses playing in this year’s game, a 35-28 score is definitely possible.
How to Choose Your Squares
If you’re planning to play multiple squares, something I recommend, there are two ways to go about it.
The first route is to spread your squares out across the board. This strategy gives you a higher likelihood of hitting one square but caps your downside of winning multiple. You’ll have a wider variety of numbers and an increased chance of winding up with duds.
The second strategy is to stack your squares across the same row or down the same column. This is the high-risk, high-reward route. It hitches your wagon to a single number in the row or column you’ve chosen. If that spot turns out to be a seven or zero, you’re in great shape. If it’s a two or a five, all of your squares are likely ruined.
Why the Super Bowl Matchup Matters
As I mentioned before, this game features two of the best offenses in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs are currently listed as a 3-point favorite, and the total in the game is 56.5. This implies that Vegas is expecting a 30-27 Chiefs victory.
Obviously, more scoring means more variance. But my guess is we’ll see many pools win with sevens, fours, ones, and zeroes this year, as I expect more touchdowns than field goals.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.