Super Bowl LVII Potential Matchups, Odds & Predictions (2023)
As we anticipate this Sunday’s Conference Championship Games, it’s worth taking a look at the potential Super Bowl LVII matchups. For a brief time, DraftKings Sportsbook offered lookahead lines on the potential matchups. Those lines have since been rescinded, but they’re still worth delving into as they likely won’t vary much upon re-release.
2023 NFL Playoffs Conference Championships Betting Guide >>
Super Bowl LVII Potential Matchups, Odds & Predictions
At the moment, the Eagles are the consensus favorite to hoist the Lombardi, but that does not necessarily mean they’ll be favored were they to get there. Philly’s status as the Super Bowl favorite is largely due to them being the most likely team to win this weekend (their Moneyline price vs San Francisco of -145 translates to a roughly 59% chance of victory).
Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5 | O/U 49)
The initial offering suggests the Eagles would be favored over Burrow’s Bengals, but we’re not convinced this would hold. The public’s infatuation with Cincinnati is overwhelming, as evident by the AFCCG’s early line shift from Chiefs -2.5 to Bengals -2.5. Further, the narratives of previous experience and having beaten both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes en route to Santa Clara won’t go unnoticed. Such reasons are often nonsensical, but the Bengals may genuinely deserve the distinction of being favored here: Cincy ranks fourth in Weighted DVOA to Philly’s fifth, and FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Predictions would give the Bengals the edge in the game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles (+1 | O/U 49.5)
It’s strange that the Chiefs would be favored here, but correct. Much of the reason that Kansas City finds themselves as underdogs this week is because of the uncertainty of QB Patrick Mahomes’ injured right ankle, and if the Chiefs do in fact advance to SB LVII, concern regarding his status will likely dissipate. In actuality, this number may be too short. Similar to the potential Bengals/Eagles matchup, Mahomes’ status will surely influence bettors to back the Chiefs. Also, KC has an advantage per DVOA and FiveThirtyEight’s projections.
Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers (-1 | O/U 48.5)
San Francisco is the least likely of the teams to make a Super Bowl appearance, but they’ll have as good a chance as any were they to advance. Rookie QB Brock Purdy has been excellent in his role, and the 49ers’ defense (first in DVOA) is markedly above the rest of the field. Still, while this number may be fair, it wouldn’t hold. The ‘Burrow Factor’ has already been mentioned, and it’s likely too that bettors would underweight San Francisco’s defensive advantage. For this potential matchup, if the spread is the same upon re-release, catch this number while available.
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers (+1.5 | O/U 48.5)
In what would be the only potential Regular Season rematch (and a rematch of Super Bowl LIV), the Chiefs undoubtedly have the edge. Kansas City thwarted the 49ers 44-23 in their previous matchup, and although much has changed since then, such a demonstration of dominance justifies the Chiefs’ being favored on a neutral field. Additionally, don’t be surprised if this number moves even further in KC’s direction. It’ll take guts to back Brock Purdy on the game’s biggest stage, especially considering no rookie QB has ever started in a Super Bowl. And, while such reasoning is (again) nonsensical, the public bettor’s reluctance to back the 49ers should shift the line.
It is worth noting that (for all of these potential matchups) an initial bet on the Under may be warranted. Each of these remaining teams boasts a formidable defense, and each Total in this weekend’s Conference Championship Games is set below these numbers. And, for those interested in Super Bowl trends, the Total has gone Under in four consecutive Super Bowls, and in nine of eleven when the Total is set at 48 points or above.
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