Navigate

Super Bowl LVIII Early Preview: Odds & Picks (49ers vs. Chiefs)

by |

We live in a society where instantaneous is everything. We have to react to everything right away, or else we’ll get left in the dust by the hot-take parade.

But sometimes you have to take a breath. Oftentimes, we need the benefit of time to confirm or correct our knee-jerk reactions.

I had to remember this as I watched the San Francisco 49ers celebrate their win of the NFC Championship. My knee-jerk reaction was that neither the 49ers nor the Kansas City Chiefs deserve to be here.

The 49ers couldn’t have played a worse first half. If not for Dan Campbell’s recklessness and a dropped pass by Josh Reynolds, the 49ers could be having exit interviews right now instead of making travel arrangements to Las Vegas.

The same goes for the AFC representative, who essentially did nothing in the second half besides sit idly by as John Harbaugh, Todd Monken and Lamar Jackson threw up all over themselves, with some ridiculously undisciplined antics sprinkled in between.

Ultimately, it doesn’t matter whether the 49ers or Chiefs deserve to be in Super Bowl LVIII because they are in Super Bowl LVIII. Questioning their validity does us nothing as we start the process of handicapping this game.

That said, here are my initial thoughts on this Super Bowl rematch:

Super Bowl LVIII Early Betting Preview (2024)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Super Bowl LVIII Could Be Determined by the Running Game

One thing that stuck out about the AFC title game was how quickly Baltimore abandoned their running game, despite only being down 10 points to a Chiefs defense that’s 28th in run defense EPA. Barring a massive deficit, that shouldn’t be a concern for a 49ers offense with Christian McCaffrey in its backfield.

Kansas City’s ability to stop McCaffrey in San Francisco’s patented outside zone running scheme will be paramount.

On the other side of the ball, the Lions revealed the blueprint for moving the ball against a 49ers defense that I feel is overrated. It started with a power inside running game that rushed for 182 yards and 6.3 yards per rush. Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs gashed this defense.

My question for Kansas City will be whether it commits to running the football against a San Francisco run defense that ranks 23rd in EPA. The Chiefs kept their offense relatively balanced against Baltimore, throwing 39 passes while attempting 32 runs. If they replicate that game plan, Isiah Pacheco could be in store for a big game.

How Does San Francisco Handle Taylor’s Boyfriend?

As is the case with every Chiefs game, Travis Kelce will likely be the X-factor. And if I’m a 49ers fan, I’m concerned about the team’s inability to cover Lions tight end Sam LaPorta. The rookie racked up 97 yards on nine catches Sunday night and got open often, especially when he was covered by linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner.

It’ll be fascinating to see how 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks approaches the matchup against Kelce. Unlike when these two teams faced off in Super Bowl LIV, the Chiefs’ offense is actually easier to scheme against.

Kansas City’s passing game heavily depends on Kelce and rookie receiver Rashee Rice. The two combined to get 20 of the 36 targets in the AFC Championship Game. The most targeted players after them were tight end Noah Gray (5 targets) and Pacheco (4 targets). The rest of Kansas City’s wide receiving corps accounted for three catches on five targets.

Wilks’ sole purpose should be devising a way to prevent Kelce and Rice from converting chunk plays over the middle of the field and dare the likes of Kadarius Toney (if active), Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson to beat them.

Can Mahomes Find More Magic Outside of the Pocket?

One thing the Ravens did poorly in the AFC Championship Game was maintaining gap integrity. The Ravens’ pass rushers often flew upfield, opening up lanes for Patrick Mahomes to maneuver and escape the pocket, resulting in back-breaking plays that extended drives or prevented lost yardage.

While Mahomes isn’t nearly as athletic as Lamar Jackson, you must rush him the same way. Get pressure up the middle without losing your gap by over-pursuing. When the Ravens did this in the second half Sunday, Mahomes struggled mightily and frequently was forced to roll out toward the sideline and throw the ball away.

This game is what San Francisco invested heavily in its defensive line for. It’ll be on Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave and Chase Young to keep the heat on Mahomes without letting him pull off the magic that helped Kansas City get to the Super Bowl.

Will Purdy Crumble Under Pressure? 

Brock Purdy has been rattled by pressure during this postseason. While he’s only been sacked three times, he’s been under duress a lot and has taken 12 hits in the postseason. What’s more concerning is Purdy was under duress for most of the first half against a Lions defensive front that ranked 26th in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate metric. While Kansas City’s pass rush isn’t elite, it ranks 20th in PRWR, although defensive tackle Chris Jones is the only member of the line to rank within the top 20 in individual pass block win rate at his respective position.

San Francisco’s offensive line has the game’s best tackle in Trent Williams but is a susceptible unit otherwise. The 49ers ranked 20th in Pass Block Win Rate and 23rd in Run Block Win Rate. The question is whether that’ll matter against a Chiefs front that’s below average at rushing the passer and ranked dead-last in Run Stop Win Rate.

The onus will be on Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to confuse Purdy with designed blitzes, much like he did against Jackson and the Ravens. While the Chiefs didn’t grade out well in Pass Rush Win Rate, they still generated pressure at the second-highest rate in the league. The primary reason is a blitz rate that ranks seventh in the league.

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will need to devise ways to quickly get the ball out of Purdy’s hands and into the hands of his playmakers. McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle all offer a ton of upside with the ball in their hands, while Brandon Aiyuk is one of the league’s sharpest route runners. San Francisco’s game plan should be to get the ball out of Purdy’s hands in three seconds or less, catching KC’s defense in bad positions when blitzing while challenging a Chiefs secondary that’s thin aside from L’Jarius Sneed.

The Matchup to Watch 

As mentioned, this game is the reason for San Francisco’s heavy investments along the defensive line. Bosa, Hargrave and Armstead all rank inside the top 20 at their positions in pass rush win rate. However, all five of Kansas City’s offensive linemen rank inside the top 20 at pass block win rate.

While there’s so much star power on the field at the glamorous positions, I’ll be watching closely to see who controls the line of scrimmage when Kansas City has the ball.

Early Prediction 

Now, it’s early in the off week, and my opinion can definitely change as I dive deeper into the game. Still, there are a few reasons why I lean toward Kansas City as a short underdog:

  1. I question whether San Francisco can generate enough pressure against an elite Chiefs offensive line that led the league in Pass Block Win Rate.
  2. I believe Kansas City has the better coaching staff, as I was hardly impressed by the game plan from Shanahan and Wilks.
  3. I’ll take Mahomes over Purdy in a one-game sample size every time.

Now, that’s not to say this is a slam dunk. My homework during the week off will be to look into how Kansas City can sustain drives and whether they can contain this loaded 49ers’ offense. But right now, I’m leaning with the Chiefs.

Early Pick: Chiefs Moneyline (+100)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App