Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Jets Odds & Game Pick (2021)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets are in polar opposite positions. The Bucs are looking to set themselves to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Meanwhile, the Jets hung on for dear life to knock off the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars last week.
Will Brady and the Bucs roll to victory, or can the Jets put up a fight? Let’s break it down.
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Details
- Opening line: Tampa Bay -13
- Current line: Tampa Bay -12.5
- Total: 46
Buccaneers must balance playoff seeding with staying healthy
While the Buccaneers have clinched the NFC South division, they still have a lot to play for. At 11-4, Tampa is just a game back of the Green Bay Packers for the precious No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, which comes with a first-round bye.
The defending champions are once again among the league’s elite. They rank 2nd in overall DVOA, first in offensive DVOA, and seventh in defensive DVOA. But Tampa has been hit hard by the injury bug recently and won’t enter MetLife Stadium at full strength.
Receiver Chris Godwin is out for the year with a torn ACL. His running mate Mike Evans is dealing with a hamstring injury and COVID. Star pass rusher Shaq Barrett has a sprained ACL and will hopefully return for the playoffs. Plus, coach Bruce Arians won’t coach in this game after catching COVID-19.
Tampa Bay wasn’t at full strength last weekend against Carolina either, but they still covered easily as 10.5-point favorites thanks to a dominant running game. The Bucs ran for 159 yards against Carolina, and that formula should be easily replicable against the Jets. A Bucs offensive line that ranks fifth in adjusted line yards will square off with a Jets defense that’s 29th in run defense DVOA, and 24th in adjusted line yards. Tampa’s offensive line should be able to bully New York’s defensive front.
Defensively, Tampa should be able to harass Zach Wilson even without Barrett. The Jets have allowed the sixth-most sacks in the league. And while Tampa’s secondary has been exposed in the past, New York doesn’t have the offensive firepower to exploit it.
Can the Jets make this a game?
It took me a while to figure out what to say about this Jets team. New York was able to overcome the absence of head coach Robert Saleh and a handful of players who landed on the COVID-19 list to knock off the Jacksonville Jaguars. But a deeper dive into the box score suggests the Jets were somewhat fortunate to come out with a victory.
Jacksonville out-gained the Jets 384-373 and had nine more first downs. New York simply benefitted from more big plays, like a 52-yard touchdown run from Zach Wilson and a Braxton Berrios kickoff return touchdown. And despite all of that, the Jets needed a goal-line stand to hang on to victory.
One thing to note about Gang Green is that its offense has progressed as the year’s gone on, at least according to DVOA. The Jets now rank 21st in offensive DVOA and are 13th in rushing DVOA. The Jets finally got their ground game going against Jacksonville, racking up 272 yards.
Establishing the run against Tampa’s front seven will be a much tougher task, as the Bucs rank 11th in rushing DVOA and fifth in adjusted line yards.
Bottom Line
The Buccaneers are clearly the superior team in this matchup. But with no Arians and a slew of injuries, I expect Tampa’s mentality to be: start hot, generate a significant lead, and get out of MetLife Stadium healthy. Obviously, that plan is much easier said than done in the NFL.
I anticipate Brady and the Bucs to get whatever they want against a porous Jets defense that lacks talent at all three levels. And if all goes well, the Buccaneers might lay off the gas. For that reason, I’d recommend taking Tampa Bay to cover in the first half, rather than risk the possibility of a backdoor cover on the full game spread.
The pick: Buccaneers first half -7
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