Tatiana Suarez vs. Jessica Andrade: UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
What an incredible card last weekend!! Lewis by first-round KO and Holland by submission was an incredible way to punctuate the night!! UFC 291 will probably go down as the event of the year. Let’s see if we can carry any of that momentum into this weekend! Check out all my picks for UFC Fight Night Font vs Sandhagen. And below let’s check out the fight: Tatiana Suarez vs. Jessica Andrade.
UFC Fight Night Font vs Sandhagen Predictions: Tatiana Suarez vs. Jessica Andrade
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Record
- ML: 22-14-1 (+7.15 units)
- Props: 9-16-1 (+3.20 units)
- Parlays 1-15 (-6.59 units)
- Overall +3.45 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let’s look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.
Tatiana Suarez (-360) vs Jessica Andrade (+285)
Andrade
- Dist Acc Off: 53.71%
- Dist Att/Min: 21.96
- Dist Def: 63%
- KD%: .3% (1 KD out of 311 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 4.1%
- Control % Def: 4.2%
We do not have enough data over the last three years to build an advanced statistic profile for Suarez. As you can see Andrade is solid in pretty much every category. Unfortunately, she has dropped two in a row and has been finished in both fights. Suarez had a nearly four-year layoff before she finished Montana De La Rosa via guillotine choke.
Suarez’s game plan is simple, drag you to the ground and just drown you in pressure. She is 6-0 in her UFC career and has arguably never been in danger. I do not think this form of Andrade is going to deter Suarez from doing exactly what she wants to do.
Bet: Suarez (-360)
Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!
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